Five races into the year, the Cup Series has run at many of the types of tracks that will play a key role throughout the season, including the track that will host the title race.
The series has raced at a superspeedway (Daytona), a 1.5-mile drafting track (Atlanta), a road course (Circuit of the Americas), a flat track 1 mile or less (Phoenix) and a traditional 1.5-mile track (Las Vegas).
Phoenix will host the championship race for the sixth consecutive season in November. Las Vegas will be the opening race in the third round, which will determine which four drivers will race for the title at Phoenix.
So, what we do know and not know after five points races this season? This ...
When rules don’t change, top teams stay the same
What we know: There was not a significant rule change with the car from last season. So far, the carryover from the end of last year to this year has been evident.
While Joey Logano does not have a top-10 finish, the reigning Cup champion has led the most laps this season, having been in front for 247 of 1,141 laps— 21.6% of the laps run. He is showing some of the strength he had in last year’s playoffs just without the results.
Also, William Byron finished last season with seven consecutive top 10s. He’s started this year with a Daytona 500 win, a runner-up finish at COTA and a fourth-place finish at Las Vegas.
Christopher Bell, who scored eight top-five finishes in the final 12 races of last season, has won three of the first five races this year.
What we don’t know: If this will be a year of underdogs like last year. In 2024, Harrison Burton and Ty Gibbs each made the playoffs for the first time. Burton was one of four drivers who were outside the top 16 in points at the end of the regular season who earned a playoff spot with a win. The other three were Chase Briscoe, Daniel Suarez and Austin Cindric.
Will there be any other newcomers or as many drivers outside the top 16 in points to make the playoffs?
Josh Berry’s win last weekend at Las Vegas all but secures his first Cup playoff appearance. Other looking to make their first appearance in the Cup playoffs include John Hunter Nemechek (15th in points for Legacy Motor Club), Ryan Preece (18th in points for RFK Racing), Carson Hocevar (22nd in points for Spire Motorsports) and Todd Gilliland (24th in points for Front Row Motorsports).
Will this year break a trend?
What we know: The last three years, the Cup champion did not win for the first time until May. Of course, the last three championships came from Team Penske, which started slow in each of those years only to claim the title.
What we don’t know: If this truly will be Christopher Bell’s year or William Byron’s year? Three of the last five Cup champions won the crown for the first time. Bell and Byron are strong candidates to continue that trend.
How stage points are impacting the season
What we know: While Christopher Bell has three wins, William Byron is the points leader. Stage points are a factor in that. Byron leads Bell by 29 points. Byron has outscored Bell by 31 in stage points.
Another driver who has benefitted by stage points this season is Bubba Wallace. He has scored 55 stage points, including the 10 points earned for winning his Daytona qualifying race. Those 55 points represent 44% of his point total this season. He enters Sunday’s race at Homestead 11th in the standings. At this time last year, stage points represented only 11.2% of his point total, having scored 12 stage points among his 107 points.
What we don’t know: If the parity in stage wins will continue. Nine different drivers have won the 10 stages in the first five races of the season. Kyle Larson is the only driver to win a stage more than once, doing so at Atlanta and Las Vegas.
What is happening on pit road?
What we know: Pit road has had its share of chaos this season. There have been 21 speeding penalties in the past two races — nearly equal to the number of pit road speeding penalties in the five five races last season. Las Vegas also saw two teams lose wheels on the track. Kyle Larson’s team also lost a wheel on track at COTA.
What we don’t know: In the quest for faster pit stops and gaining track position, teams are pushing the limits. Also, it’s early in the season and teams can be prone to more mistakes.
Brad Moran, managing director of the Cup Series, spoke Tuesday on SiriusXM NASCAR Radio’s “The Morning Drive” about wheels coming off and said: “For whatever reason it appears that we’ve got something going on. I’ve been discussing it with a lot of the crew chiefs and (team) managers. I wouldn’t quickly say (the cause for wheels coming off) is wheel weight. We do know that did happen on one occasion, but I think it’s about time as well, timing and trying to get as much done as you can in the shortest period of the time. You push it to the limit. Unfortunately, if that car hits the ground before that nut’s tight, we’ve had this problem. We are looking into it.”
Will this be Hendrick Motorsports’ year?
What we know: Daytona 500 winner William Byron leads the points and his teammates are all in the top six. Chase Elliott is fourth, Alex Bowman is fifth and Kyle Larson is sixth.
What we don’t know: If the organization, which has not won the championship in the past three years, will avoid its longest title drought since 2006.
What about Kyle Busch?
What we know: He finished in the top 10 at Atlanta, COTA and Phoenix, his longest streak since scoring four top 10s in a row last year at Michigan, Daytona, Darlington and the playoff opener at Atlanta.
What we don’t know: While Busch sees progress with Richard Childress Racing. While his winless streak is at 62 races, this team seems closer to a victory than it did throughout much of last season. Upcoming races at Darlington and Bristol could be places where he wins again in Cup.
