In Part II of my 2024 championship preview, I examine Ryan Blaney and William Byron’s strengths and potential pitfalls to watch for at Phoenix. Part I covered Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick.
Blaney and Byron were the last two drivers to secure a spot in the Championship 4: Blaney by winning Martinsville, and Byron on points after NASCAR penalized Christopher Bell for riding the wall. Don’t count out either driver just because they didn’t clinch their spots earlier.
Ryan Blaney: Going for two in a row
This is the second consecutive year Blaney has made it to the Championship 4 — and the second year he did so by winning the last race in the Round of 8. Phoenix is Blaney’s opportunity to be the first driver to win two championships in a row under the stage-racing championship format (since 2017).
In two appearances in the Championship 4, Blaney has one championship. His championship last year was the first time under this format that the season champion did not win the final race.
Blaney and Denny Hamlin are the only two drivers who have participated in all eight of the championship playoffs run under the current format. Blaney entered the playoffs ranked fifth with two wins (Pocono and Iowa) and 19 playoff points.
In the first 26 races of the season, Blaney accumulated seven top-five finishes (26.9%) and five DNFS (19.2%). After 35 races, Blaney has 11 top fives (31.4%) and 17 top 10s (48.6%), with just nine finishes outside the top 20 (25.7%.) His average finish improved from 15.8 in the regular season to 15.0 in the playoffs.
Blaney hasn’t done that well at Phoenix’s comparable tracks (Richmond, Gateway and New Hampshire) in the Gen-7 car, however he finished in the top five at all five Gen-7 races at Phoenix. He also posted the best finish at Phoenix this spring (fifth) of all four drivers competing for the championship.
Of concern: Blaney didn’t cement his spot in the finals until the last possible moment. Even though he did the same last year and went on to win the championship, he is again competing against two drivers who have had much longer to prepare. Blaney also has the most DNFs of any of the four drivers with seven (20.0%.)
As I mentioned in part I, Roger Penske is the only owner with two drivers in the Championship 4. Ford is the only manufacturer with two drivers in the Championship 4. Blaney and Logano are competing for resources, which might give their competitors an advantage.
William Byron: Quietly making a statement
It can be challenging to stand out with teammates like Kyle Larson and Chase Elliott, but Byron is the sole Hendrick driver to make the Championship 4 this year. Like Blaney, this is Byron’s second consecutive appearance.
Byron won his three races early in the season: The Daytona 500, COTA and the first Martinsville race. He entered the playoffs seeded fourth (after Reddick and before Blaney) with 22 bonus points.
Byron, the only driver to make the Championship 4 on points, enters Phoenix with 12 top-five finishes (34.3%) and 20 top-10 finishes (57.1%.) He ties Reddick for tops in both categories among the Championship 4 drivers. Byron has only nine finishes of 21st or worse and is again tied with Reddick for the fewest DNFs of the group with four (11.1%.)
Byron has one top-five and three top-10 finishes at Phoenix’s comparable tracks in the Gen-7 car. Although he hasn’t won at any of the comp tracks, he has one win and two top-five finishes at Phoenix in the Gen-7 car. He and Blaney are the only drivers with wins in the Gen-7 car at Phoenix. Byron finished 18th at Phoenix in the spring.
Of concern: Even though Byron’s average finish over the last six races is an impressive 4.0, the championship format emphasizes winning. Byron hasn’t won a race since April. Like Blaney, Byron’s team had to focus on making it out of the Round of 8 rather than having two weeks to prepare like Logano’s team. Although he has only four DNFs, two of them are at tracks of 1.33 miles or less.
It’s foolhardy to try to predict a winner when the championship depends on a single race. Last year, a broken brake rotor ended Christopher Bell’s chance of taking home the championship trophy.
We will learn more during the 50-minute practice Friday (6 p.m. ET on USA Network) and qualifying Saturday (5 p.m. ET on USA Network.)
The race itself will be on NBC and Peacock, with pre-race coverage starting at 2 p.m. ET.
