Ty Gibbs has kept his head down, avoided the controversy that surrounded his final year in the Xfinity Series, and sits within 50 points of the playoff cutline with two races left in his first full-time season. Gibbs hasn’t won a Cup Series race but shows increasing competitiveness as the season evolves, with one top-five and six top-10 finishes.
But even if he doesn’t make the 2023 playoffs, Gibbs trods the path champion drivers blazed.
My comparison group includes every champion from 2004-22: Kurt Busch, Tony Stewart, Jimmie Johnson, Brad Keselowski, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Martin Truex Jr., Joey Logano, Chase Elliott and Kyle Larson. I compare Gibbs’ rookie season against each of these drivers’ first full seasons, ignoring races run before each driver’s first full-time Cup Series ride.
The champions have much in common. Almost all started their careers with top-tier teams. Truex, who ran for Dale Earnhardt Inc. at the start of his career, is a notable exception. One could also make an argument that Larson’s first full season with Chip Ganassi Racing also qualifies as an exception because CGR wasn’t a top-tier team in 2014. Keep these circumstances in mind as you read.
Remember also that Gibbs has completed only two-thirds of his rookie season. His numbers could grow, or shrink, by the time the season is over.
Gibbs has also run the most diverse schedule of any driver in the group. Chase Elliott is the most recent rookie in the group. His first full-time season was in 2016. None of the past champions had to run dirt races, street courses, or more than two road courses in their rookie years. Gibbs’ schedule also includes six superspeedway-type tracks, two more than any other driver in the group.
Rookie wins
Only five of the 10 championship drivers in the comparison group won races in their rookie years.
| Year | Driver | Win Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Tony Stewart | 8.8 |
| 2002 | Jimmie Johnson | 8.3 |
| 2001 | Kevin Harvick | 5.7 |
| 2005 | Kyle Busch | 5.6 |
| 2009 | Joey Logano | 2.8 |
| 2001 | Kurt Busch | 0.0 |
| 2010 | Brad Keselowski | 0.0 |
| 2006 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 0.0 |
| 2016 | Chase Elliott | 0.0 |
| 2014 | Kyle Larson | 0.0 |
| 2023 | Ty Gibbs | 0.0 |
Stewart and Johnson both claimed three checkered flags in their first full year of Cup Series competition; however, the 1999 season featured only 34 races. NASCAR adopted the current 36-race regular season in 2001. Stewart thus has a higher win rate percentage despite winning the same number of races as Johnson.
Kevin Harvick beats Kyle Busch for the same reason. Harvick ran only 35 of the 36 races in 2001 after he became a full-time Cup Series driver due to Dale Earnhardt Sr.’s death.
Of the five drivers who won in their rookie seasons, Harvick won his first race the earliest: His Atlanta victory was just the third Cup Series race he ran. Johnson won the 13th race he ran, Logano the 20th race, Stewart the 25th, and Kyle Busch the 31st race.
The other five drivers did not win any races in their rookie seasons. Keselowski’s win in the fifth Cup Series race he ran helped him land a full-time ride at Penske.
Elliott and Larson — two of the last three series champions — each won his 99th race.
If Gibbs doesn’t win one of the 12 remaining races this year, he can comfort himself with the fact that Jeff Gordon was winless in his first season. It took Gordon 41 races before he won.
Top fives and top 10s
Winning in your first year clearly isn’t a requirement for becoming a series champion. So let’s examine other metrics, like finishes.
If Gibbs were to finish in the top five in each of the 12 races remaining in 2023, he would have a 36.1% top-five rate. While such a string is unlikely — especially as two of those races are at Daytona and Talladega — the numbers show that Gibbs has plenty of room to move up on the chart below.
| Year | Driver | Top 5 Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Tony Stewart | 35.3 |
| 2016 | Chase Elliott | 27.8 |
| 2005 | Kyle Busch | 25.0 |
| 2014 | Kyle Larson | 22.2 |
| 2001 | Kevin Harvick | 17.1 |
| 2002 | Jimmie Johnson | 16.7 |
| 2001 | Kurt Busch | 8.6 |
| 2009 | Joey Logano | 8.3 |
| 2006 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 5.6 |
| 2023 | Ty Gibbs | 4.2 |
| 2010 | Brad Keselowski | 0.0 |
Gibbs has already bested Keselowski’s rate of earning top-five finishes in his first year — but remember that Keselowski came into his rookie year with a win. Gibbs is close to Truex but Truex wasn’t running in top-quality equipment during his first few years of competition.
But if Gibbs gets just two more top-five finishes in the next 12 races, he would pull even with Logano. Three more top-five finishes would put him ahead of Kurt Busch.
So while Gibbs is low on this chart, there’s plenty of time for him to move up. That’s especially promising because he’s shown himself strong on road courses. The Cup Series races at Watkins Glen this weekend (3 p.m. ET Sunday on USA Network).
Gibbs fares a little better on a list of top-10 finish rates where his six top-10 finishes in 24 races put him ahead of Keselowski, Truex, Kurt Busch and Logano. Seven more top-10 finishes in 12 races would bring Gibbs level with Kyle Busch’s rookie year.
| Year | Driver | Top 10 Rate (%) |
|---|---|---|
| 1999 | Tony Stewart | 61.8 |
| 2002 | Jimmie Johnson | 58.3 |
| 2016 | Chase Elliott | 47.2 |
| 2014 | Kyle Larson | 47.2 |
| 2001 | Kevin Harvick | 45.7 |
| 2005 | Kyle Busch | 36.1 |
| 2023 | Ty Gibbs | 25.0 |
| 2009 | Joey Logano | 19.4 |
| 2001 | Kurt Busch | 17.1 |
| 2006 | Martin Truex, Jr. | 13.9 |
| 2010 | Brad Keselowski | 5.6 |
Average starts and finishes
A driver’s best finishes are one measure of excellence. Consistency is another. The table below shows the average finish positions of championship-winning drivers in their rookie years.
| Driver | Average Finish |
|---|---|
| Tony Stewart | 10.3 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 13.5 |
| Kevin Harvick | 14.1 |
| Kyle Larson | 14.2 |
| Chase Elliott | 14.6 |
| Ty Gibbs | 18.0 |
| Joey Logano | 20.0 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 20.8 |
| Kyle Busch | 21.0 |
| Brad Keselowski | 22.4 |
| Kurt Busch | 25.5 |
Gibbs finds himself smack-dab in the middle of the rankings here, averaging an 18th-place finish over the 24 races run so far. That average finish is better than those posted by Logano, Truex, Keselowski and both Busch brothers in their first years.
One place Gibbs has outdone most of his comparison group is in qualifying.
| Driver | Average Start |
|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 11.3 |
| Tony Stewart | 12.6 |
| Jimmie Johnson | 14.3 |
| Ty Gibbs | 15.2 |
| Kyle Larson | 15.6 |
| Kevin Harvick | 16.1 |
| Kyle Busch | 18.6 |
| Joey Logano | 20.5 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 21.2 |
| Brad Keselowski | 23.0 |
| Kurt Busch | 29.4 |
Gibbs’ 15.17 average starting position is better than all but three drivers: Elliott, Stewart and Johnson. Given the importance of starting up front in the Next Gen car at so many tracks, Gibbs has given himself an advantage by qualifying well.
Gibbs’ numbers look promising, but not decisive. I’ll revisit this question after the season is over to see where he lands relative to champion drivers. For now, however, Gibbs is definitely moving in the right direction.
