The Round of 8 — Las Vegas, Homestead and Martinsville — will determine which four drivers will compete for the Cup Series championship next month in Phoenix. While winning is still the key to advancing, drivers must hedge their bets and accumulate as many points as possible.
Three of the first six playoff races were won by non-playoff drivers, but don’t expect that trend to continue. There are no more road courses or superspeedways, and since stage racing began in 2014, all three Round of 8 races have been won by one of the 16 original playoff drivers.
- In four of the 10 years of stage racing, current playoff drivers won all the races in the Round of 8.
- Current playoff drivers won two of the three races in the Round of 8 in four years. The third race in each case was won by a driver who had made the playoffs, but been eliminated by the time of his win.
- In 2014 and 2015, current playoff drivers won only one of the three races, with the other two checkered flags claimed by eliminated playoff drivers.
Pointing the way to the Championship 4
With three races and four playoff slots, at least one driver will make the Championship 4 on points. Don’t be surprised if two drivers earn their berths on points.
Forty points separate top-seeded Kyle Larson from eighth-seeded Joey Logano. But the field isn’t as spread out as that number might suggest. Larson holds a 20-point lead over second-seeded Christopher Bell. Bell and the remaining seven drivers are separated by 20 points.
The tightness of the points makes stage points extra important. Some drivers have been much better at earning stage points than others. The graph below shows points earned in the last six races. Points from finish position are blue while stage points are red.
Drivers to Watch
Bell has earned the most points in the playoffs so far. The majority of his points come from consistently strong finishes. His 27 stage points make up just 12.8% of total points earned in the first six playoff races.
In contrast, Ryan Blaney (fifth on the graph) has the most stage points (54) and the highest percentage of stage points relative to total points at 29.8%. That’s mostly due to 2 DNFs out of six playoff races, including not finishing a single lap at Watkins Glen. If he can finish the next three races, he’ll be a contender.
William Byron earned the second-most total points and the second-most stage points. His 52 stage points are 25.2% of his point total. Given that Bell has 34 more points on finishes, Byron needs to keep earning all those stage points.
Despite being fourth in total points earned, Larson’s 52 playoff points make him the top seed. The only threat to Larson is failure to execute. The No. 5 team has five DNFs in 31 races.
But Larson also has the best chance of winning one or more of the Round of 8 races. His six wins are double the next-winningest drivers. Did I mention that Larson won both stages and the race at Las Vegas in March?
Regular season champ Tyler Reddick almost didn’t make the Round of 8. He has finished 20th or worse in four of the six playoff races. With the second-smallest number of stage points earned in the playoffs, he’ll need to step up his performance to continue.
Denny Hamlin has the fewest stage points overall, accounting for 13.7% of his total points in the playoffs, but the plethora of road courses and superspeedways might be masking his chances. Hamlin’s two wins are at Richmond and Dover, making Martinsville his best shot in this round.
Stage points versus winning
Here’s the good news for the playoff drivers: At two of the next three tracks (Las Vegas and Homestead), drivers can rack up stage points and win the race. That’s assuming, of course, they don’t get taken out by an accident or mechanical failure.
That’s also the bad news. A driver who arrives with the wrong setup will struggle to earn points while his competitors’ success puts him even further behind.
- Six drivers have won Stage 1 and Stage 2 at Las Vegas since 2017. Larson is the only driver to do it twice. Only one of those six didn’t win the race, and that was due to a spin late in the final stage.
- Out of the eight drivers who won Stage 1 only, just one went on to win the race. Six of the eight finished in the top 10.
- Of the eight drivers who won only Stage 2 at Las Vegas, five went on to win the race.
Homestead is similar: two of the three drivers who won both stages also won the race. None of the Stage 1-only winners won the race, but two of the four Stage 2-only winners went on for a victory. One note of caution about Homestead: Last year, eight drivers DNF’ed at a track where DNFs are unusual.
Martinsville
Martinsville is the wild card, not just because of a new tire, but because it’s harder to earn stage points and win the race. In the last two races, 12 and 14 drivers respectively finished on the lead lap. That opens up strategy options for lead-lap drivers, but can bury lapped cars.
- In seven of 15 Martinsville races, one driver has won Stage 1 and Stage 2. Only twice (28.6%) did that driver win the race, and both were in 2019 with the previous generation car.
- Eight drivers won only Stage 1. None went on to win the race, although two did finish in second place.
- Three of the eight Stage 2-only winners (37.5%) also took the checkered flag.
The fight for the single guaranteed berth available on points will be fierce. Don’t give up on your driver if they don’t win Stage 1. But get out those worry beads if they fail to score points in Stage 2.
