NASCAR returns to the Indianapolis Motor Speedway to race the historic oval for the first time since 2020. This weekend’s contest also marks the 30th anniversary of NASCAR’s first race at Indy in 1994.
Despite the 30th-anniversary mark, the Cup Series has run only 27 races on the oval. Over that time, a total of 1,141cars have competed, driven by 170 different competitors.
Jeff Gordon contested the most races, with 23 starts. Bobby Labonte is Indy’s second-most-frequent Cup Series visitor with 21 starts. Of drivers in Sunday’s field, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. have the most experience on the oval with 16 starts each. Denny Hamlin has 15 starts.
Fifteen drivers account for the 27 race wins. Only six drivers have multiple oval wins.
- Jeff Gordon (5 wins)
- Jimmie Johnson (4 wins)
- Kevin Harvick (3 wins)
- Kyle Busch, Tony Stewart and Dale Jarrett (2 wins each)
Of the drivers expected in Sunday’s field, only Busch and Brad Keselowski have trophies from the Indy oval track.
Searching for Indy oval royalty
My quest to determine the best drivers on the Indy oval focuses on percentages rather than straight-up numbers. Busch and Jarrett each have two wins, but Busch has 16 starts and Jarrett 13. That gives Busch a win rate of 12.5% and Jarrett a 15.4% win rate.
My metric combines win rate, top-five percentage and average points earned per race. I use a nonlinear scale for calculating average points to reward the difference between second and third more highly than the difference between 30th and 31st.
The average points per race accounts for half of each drivers’ score because it measures finishes and consistency. Win rate counts a third and top-five percentage constitutes the rest.
I restrict the competition to drivers who have won at least one race and with at least 10 starts. Dale Earnhardt, with one win in seven starts, would rank fourth on the list if I lowered the minimum race requirement. The problem is that a small number of starts artificially inflates the stats.
Because the last three visits used the road course layout, that requirement also excludes younger drivers like Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney, both of whom have only 6 starts. It therefore shouldn’t surprise you then that the best NASCAR drivers at the Indianapolis oval — so far — are more senior drivers.
Jeff Gordon: King of the Indy oval
Gordon won the very first Brickyard race in 1994 by 0.53 seconds in only his second full year in the Cup Series. Brett Bodine, Bill Elliott, Rusty Wallace and Dale Earnhardt rounded out the top five.
Gordon won a total of five Indy oval races in 23 tries, for a win rate of 21.7%. In addition to 1994, Gordon won in 1998, 2001, 2004 and 2014: at least once in each decade he raced at Indy.
In addition to having the most wins, Gordon also had one second-place finish, two third-place finishes and two fourth-place finishes. In fact, Gordon finished in the top five a remarkable 52.2% of the time and ranked in the top 10 in 73.9% of his races. At a track with a high DNF rate for a non-superspeedway, Gordon had only one DNF in those 23 races.
Kevin Harvick is the Crown Prince
Although Harvick has the third-most wins at Indy, my metric awards him second place. His win rate is only 15.0%, but his top-five percentage is 40.0%. Harvick has an average finishing position of 8.6 compared with Gordon’s 10.0. That consistency puts him within three points (out of 100) in average points scored per race relative to Gordon. Harvick also completed all 20 races he started.
The rest of the Indy royal court
Jarrett and Stewart tie for third. Both drivers have two wins. Jarrett’s win rate is 15.4%, with a 38.5% top-five rate. Stewart boasts a 11.1% win rate and racked up a 38.9% top-five rate. Stewart completed all 18 races running while Jarret has one DNF in 13 races.
Busch and Johnson tie for fifth place. Johnson’s four wins give him a 22.2%-win, which is higher than Gordon’s 21.7% win rate. But Johnson’s non-winning finishes are all over the map. That’s partly due to 5 DNFs in 18 races (27.8%).
Johnson has a 33.3% top-five finish rate compared to Gordon’s 52.2% and Busch’s 31.2%. But Johnson’s top-10 percentage is only 38.9%, a little more than half of Gordon’s number. Busch’s top-10 percentage of 75.0% is higher than even Gordon’s, boosting him to the tie for fifth.
What does this history suggest about Sunday’s race?
While Busch is the only driver racing this Sunday to make the overall top-five list, the current crop of drivers are well represented in the top 15: Joey Logano ranks 10th, Keselowski 11th and Hamlin 14th.
Hamlin and Busch are the only active drivers with earned poles, but poles aren’t a big factor at Indy. Five races have been won from the pole, but winners have started as far back as 27th position.
Chevrolet has dominated Indianapolis with 17 wins for a win rate of 63.0%. Ford comes in second with six wins (22.2%). Toyota has two trophies, with Dodge and Pontiac each claiming one.
But Toyota only entered NASCAR in 2007, which means they missed the first 14 contests. Their win rate is thus 15.4%. Blaney’s win and Logano’s fifth-place finish at Pocono last week suggests Ford might have some advantages this weekend.
Eleven of the 39 drivers on the preliminary entry list for Sunday’s race — 28.2% of the field — have never raced a Cup Series race on the Indy oval. This group is doubtlessly thankful for a 50-minute practice session instead of the usual 20 minutes. But veterans also have a lot to learn: None of them have driven the Next Gen car on Indy’s oval, either.
The track isn’t the only challenge this weekend. The average DNF rate over the 27 Indy oval races is 17.4%. The average DNF rate for the last four races (2017-20) is 30.6%. The 2017 race, in fact, has a track record DNF rate of 47.5% of the cars starting the race. While accidents and spins account for about half that total, the rest of the DNFs are mostly due to equipment failure.
That makes this week’s race something of a throwback to very first year of the Next Gen car, when teams arrived at tracks totally unsure of what they would be up against. Everyone was learning. That year produced 19 different winners.
The 22nd race of the year might just be the key for a driver who can’t make the playoffs on points to clinch a playoff spot.
