Every point counts.
NASCAR fans hear that phrase throughout the season — and even more frequently during the playoffs. It’s not just one of those things people say.
You may remember Tony Stewart winning the 2011 Cup Series championship over Carl Edwards on a tiebreaker. At the end of the season, they had the same number of points. But Stewart had five wins and Edwards just one.
Championships are often decided a single point now that everything comes down to a single race. In 2018, Joey Logano’s first championship year, the Championship 4 drivers finished in the first four spots in the final race.
But drivers today must navigate three elimination rounds before they even get to the championship race — Which means every point matters even more.
Over nine years of the 16-driver elimination playoff format, NASCAR has hosted 27 three-race elimination rounds. Twenty-seven drivers just missed moving on to the next step of the playoffs.
In some cases, like the first elimination round of 2020, the points weren’t even close. Twelfth-ranked driver Cole Custer was 28 points behind the 11th-ranked driver. But large point margins are rare.
In only three of the 27 eliminations was the highest-ranking eliminated driver 19 or more points behind the last driver to stay in the playoffs. Drivers were eliminated by 10 points or less in the other 24 races.
The four ties
In four of the 27 cases (14.8%), two or more drivers were tied in points at the end of a round. Two of those cases were in the Round of 16, one in the Round of 12 and the last in the Round of 8.
According to NASCAR’s rule book, when two drivers are tied in points after the elimination race of a round, the driver with the most race wins in the three races of that round wins. If the drivers have the same number of wins, then number of second-place finishes becomes the tiebreaker.
In 2015, Jaime McMurray found himself tied with Dale Earnhardt Jr. for the 12th spot as the Round of 16 ended. Both McMurray and Earnhardt were only 39 points behind the leader.
Kevin Harvick had won a race, which catapulted him above both McMurray and Earnhardt. That left room for only one of the two.
Neither McMurray nor Earnhardt had won during the Round of 16, but each driver achieved his best race finish in the last race of the round. McMurray finished fourth and Earnhardt third. Earnhardt moved forward.
Not only did the elimination come down to a tie, but the tiebreaker also was decided by a single point. Earnhardt was eliminated in the Round of 12.
The other Round of 16 tie was in 2018 when three drivers — Jimmie Johnson, Kyle Larson and Aric Almirola — each stood at 2097 points but only two spots remained in the list of drivers who would continue. In the previous three races, Larson’s best finish was second, Almirola’s was fifth and Johnson’s was eighth. Johnson was eliminated.
Austin Dillon was eliminated in the round of 12 in 2016 after tying Denny Hamlin in points. Hamlin’s best finish in the round was third while Dillon’s was sixth. Hamlin finished the year in sixth place while Dillon finished 14th.
The most impactful playoff tie is likely the Round of 8 in 2014, the first year of this playoff format. After the 35th race of the season, Harvick and Jeff Gordon were tied. Both were only 10 points down from points leader Hamlin. That’s how close the competition was.
Gordon had two second-place finishes in the round, but one of them was at Martinsville, where Harvick beat him. That gave Harvick the tiebreaker by one position. He went on to win the championship that year. Had Harvick not won Martinsville, Gordon would have advanced.
Missed it by that much
In only one of the 27 eliminations did the driver lose by a single point. That was in 2016’s Round of 16, when Harvick had one more point than Stewart, eliminating Stewart in the first round.
In four rounds, drivers were eliminated because drivers with fewer points won a race and thus advanced. It happened three times in the Round of 8 and one in the Round of 12.
Hamlin is the only driver this has happened to twice, both in the Round of 8. The first time was in 2016 and the second was last year thanks to Ross Chastain’s Martinsville melon move. Hamlin has been the fifth-ranked driver following the Round of 8 three times in the last nine years. Last year, he was only seven points down from the leader when he was cut.
Because of the tightness of competition and the way NASCAR determines ties, the 16 drivers competing for this year’s championship cannot afford to leave any points on the table.
Only 36 points separate the 16 drivers vying for the championship. The bottom nine are separated by only 11 points. That means drivers must fight for every stage point and every position.
Because every point really does matter.
