The championship points race remains tight. Seven different drivers — Joey Logano, Ross Chastain, Alex Bowman, Christopher Bell, Ryan Blaney, Martin Truex Jr. and William Byron — have led during the season.
Except for Bowman, who missed three races, each of the season’s points leaders remains in the top 10. Byron’s win at last week’s rain-shortened Atlanta race propelled him into the current lead, 21 points over Truex, 36 points over Busch and 37 points above fourth-place Bell.
But how each driver accumulates points varies. The graph below breaks points down by race points and stage points. I subtracted Byron’s 60-point penalty (incurred for greenhouse violations) from his race points to make it easier to compare stage points.
Seven of the top 10 drivers earn between 74% and 81% of their total points from race finishes.
Of the three exceptions, Byron’s numbers are skewed by his penalty. But his 185 stage points are the most any driver has earned this year. Byron leads Truex in total stage points by 46. Without the penalty, Byron would come in at 80% of points from race points.
Of the two drivers on the other side of the ledger, 82.6% of Logano’s points come from race finishes and 17.4% from stage points.
Busch is the extreme, with just 15% of his total points coming from stage finishes. Despite being ranked third in the points, Busch has the same number of stage points (90) as 10th-ranked Logano.
For reference, last year’s points leader after 19 weeks, Chase Elliott, earned 75.3% of his points from race finishes.
What about Martin Truex Jr.?
Truex holds second place with 607 points, putting him 15 points ahead of Busch. Truex has won twice this year, redeeming himself after a disappointing 2022 season.
So why do I put Busch ahead of Truex as the second top-contender?
One reason is finishes.
· Truex has two wins, while Byron has four and Busch three.
· Busch has a series-leading 12 top-10 finishes. Byron has 11 and Truex only nine.
· Byron has eight top-five finishes, Busch seven and Truex six.
The difference is even more apparent on the graph below that shows the average finishes of the current top-10 drivers.
Busch and Byron are closely matched in average finish. They even have a similar spread of finishes. That’s despite Busch’s average running position being 3.5 positions worse than Byron’s.
The gap between Truex and Busch/Byron is much larger than the gap between Busch and Byron. I am not counting Truex out for a championship run this year, but the data insists I rank him a solid third place in my list of contenders.
What Byron needs to do
Byron needs to keep doing more of what he’s already doing. He’s had only two DNFs and both came early in the season. He’s finished every race since March in Atlanta on the lead lap.
Byron has been involved in only seven caution-causing incidents. He ties with Blaney for the second-lowest accident involvement among the current top 10 drivers in points.
While seven might sound high, it’s low compared with the 13 caution-causing incidents Kyle Larson has been involved in this season. Byron has also managed to avoid non-caution incidents — incidents that impair a driver’s progress but don’t raise a caution — better than most drivers.
What Busch needs to do
Busch needs to untangle himself from the snare of mistakes and bad luck he’s trapped in so he can earn more stage points.
Busch embedded himself under the tire barrier at Chicago. He had to back up on pit road for a loose lug nut at Kansas. He had a flat tire at Nashville. And, of course, he was leading the Daytona 500 when a last-lap crash eliminated him from contention.
Busch is second to Larson on the list of involvement in caution-causing incidents with nine. Busch is also second to Larson on the list of involvement in non-caution-causing incidents with 12 to Larson’s 13.
The large number of incidents contribute to his average running position being much lower than his average finishing position.
“We see the mistakes that we’re making,” Busch told NBC Sports’ Dustin Long. “We need to get better on all of that. We all need to clean up our work.”
Busch’s team is far from the only team making mistakes. But where mistakes and mishaps occur is critical when it comes to getting those all-important stage points.
I totaled involvement in caution-causing incidents by stage and compared how many incidents happened in Stages 1 and 2 compared to the rest of the race.
For example, 88.9% of Harvick’s caution-causing incidents happen in the last stage of the race or in overtime.
Byron’s ratio is much more even. About 57% of his caution-causing accidents happen in the last half of the race.
Busch’s ratio is the highest of any driver in the top 10. Twice as many of the caution-causing incidents Busch has been involved in this year have happened in Stage 1 or Stage 2.
The other strategy for Busch to overtake Byron is for Busch to finish better. That’s a tough call given the level of competition.
Right now, I’m tabbing Byron and Busch as the top contenders based on performance rather than sheer points. But with seven races left before the playoffs and the points as tight as they are, don’t be too surprised if the landscape changes before Darlington.
