Picking a fantasy lineup is hard, especially when NASCAR visits a new track. It’s even more of a challenge when it’s not only a new track, it’s an entirely new type of track.
Here’s a little help. I’ve assembled some data to assist you in picking winners — or at least top-10 finishers.
Non-roval road courses
Non-roval road courses — road courses that don’t include any part of an associated oval — are the closest thing to the Chicago street course most NASCAR drivers have run. Let’s see how drivers perform at Sonoma, Watkins Glen, COTA and Road America.
I calculated average finish positions for just Next Gen races and career average finish positions because some drivers have performed much better (or worse) since NASCAR introduced the Next Gen car.
For example, Michael McDowell’s career average at non-roval road courses is 22.45 — but his average in the Next Gen car at the same tracks is 8.17.
The table below shows the average finishes, the rate of top-five finishes, wins, and best finishes for the top 13 drivers in my analysis. To be included in the table, a driver needs either a Next Gen average finish better than 15 or a career average finish better than 15.
| Driver | Wins | Next Gen Average Finish | Career Average Finish | Best Next Gen Finish | Best Career Finish | Career Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Elliott | 4 | 4.60 | 7.47 | 2 | 1 | 17 |
| Ross Chastain | 1 | 7.83 | 13.00 | 1 | 1 | 13 |
| Michael McDowell | 0 | 8.17 | 22.45 | 3 | 3 | 29 |
| Chris Buescher | 0 | 8.33 | 15.89 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| Kevin Harvick | 2 | 10.17 | 13.40 | 4 | 1 | 48 |
| Alex Bowman | 0 | 10.33 | 16.50 | 2 | 2 | 18 |
| Austin Cindric | 0 | 10.67 | 15.88 | 5 | 5 | 8 |
| Kyle Larson | 3 | 11.67 | 12.59 | 1 | 1 | 22 |
| William Byron | 0 | 13.00 | 16.86 | 5 | 5 | 14 |
| Tyler Reddick | 2 | 13.67 | 12.80 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| Daniel Suarez | 1 | 14.00 | 16.75 | 1 | 1 | 16 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 5 | 14.50 | 14.21 | 1 | 1 | 38 |
| Kyle Busch | 4 | 20.50 | 12.90 | 2 | 1 | 40 |
Chase Elliott is the only driver with top-10 finishes at every Next Gen non-roval road course race, although he did miss COTA this year. Elliott also has the highest top-five rate at 80.0% in the Next Gen car.
Daniel Suarez, Ross Chastain, and Tyler Reddick have all finished in the top five 50.0% of the time.
But I also want to highlight Martin Truex Jr.’s five career wins at these tracks, which includes winning Sonoma two weeks ago. Toyota’s slow start with the Next Gen car last year impacted Truex’s average, but Joe Gibbs Racing seems to be rebounding — as Denny Hamlin’s winning the pole shows.
Sonoma Performance
The Chicago street layout is a technical course, so I examined Sonoma — the most similar track in my opinion — to add some extra dimensions.
McDowell, Elliott and Chris Buescher are again at top of the charts based on Next Gen average finish positions, although in a slightly different order. Buescher comes in first with second-place and fourth-place finishes in the two Next Gen races at Sonoma.
While Chastain has a very respectable 8.5 average finish in the Next Gen car at Sonoma, he, Joey Logano, Kyle Larson and Reddick have never finished in the top five in the Next Gen car at Sonoma.
| Driver | Wins | Next Gen Average Finish | Career Average Finish | Best Next Gen Finish | Best Career Finish | Career Races |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Buescher | 0 | 3.00 | 14.14 | 2 | 2 | 7 |
| Michael McDowell | 0 | 5.00 | 22.36 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| Chase Elliott | 0 | 6.50 | 12.14 | 5 | 2 | 7 |
| Kevin Harvick | 1 | 7.50 | 12.68 | 4 | 1 | 22 |
| Ross Chastain | 0 | 8.50 | 14.25 | 7 | 7 | 4 |
| Joey Logano | 0 | 10.00 | 12.93 | 3 | 3 | 14 |
| Daniel Suarez | 1 | 11.50 | 13.83 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Kyle Larson | 1 | 11.50 | 14.33 | 8 | 1 | 9 |
| William Byron | 0 | 11.50 | 20.40 | 9 | 9 | 5 |
| A.J. Allmendinger | 0 | 12.50 | 22.08 | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Brad Keselowski | 0 | 13.00 | 16.08 | 10 | 3 | 13 |
| Ryan Preece | 0 | 13.00 | 21.00 | 13 | 13 | 3 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 4 | 13.50 | 16.71 | 1 | 1 | 17 |
| Kyle Busch | 2 | 16.00 | 14.78 | 2 | 1 | 18 |
Driver Momentum Index
Some drivers do well at different times of the season. But many drivers have smaller streaks of strong finishes that give them and their crew a boost. I quantified which drivers are currently ‘hot’ by comparing each driver’s average finish for the last three races to his season average finish.
The column labelled ‘delta’ in the table below is the difference between the season average and the last three races. The larger and more positive the number, the hotter the driver.
| Driver | Season | Last 3 Races | Delta |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Larson | 15.82 | 5.67 | 10.16 |
| Martin Truex, Jr. | 10.88 | 2.67 | 8.22 |
| Chase Elliott | 12.60 | 4.50 | 8.10 |
| Kyle Busch | 11.94 | 4.00 | 7.94 |
| Joey Logano | 15.59 | 8.33 | 7.25 |
| Michael McDowell | 20.06 | 14.67 | 5.39 |
| Daniel Suarez | 18.88 | 13.67 | 5.22 |
| Chris Buescher | 14.06 | 11.33 | 2.73 |
| William Byron | 11.94 | 9.33 | 2.61 |
| Ross Chastain | 13.12 | 11.00 | 2.12 |
| Austin Cindric | 22.18 | 21.67 | 0.51 |
| Kevin Harvick | 12.94 | 15.00 | -2.06 |
| Tyler Reddick | 17.29 | 32.67 | -15.37 |
In addition to the improvement (or decline), you also have to consider the magnitude of the two averages.
For example, Larson has a 10-position improvement over the last three races, but his overall average this season is 15.82. Therefore, I’d dub Truex the driver with the most momentum given his 2.67 average in his last three races.
Kevin Harvick and Tyler Reddick are both on the bottom of the momentum list. Harvick’s bad luck continues: He was slow in practice and crashed in qualifying.
The known unknowns
A few additional factoids for your consideration:
- Larson and Reddick are tied for involvement in the most caution-causing incidents among the drivers analyzed here. Both were involved in 11 mishaps. Logano and Suárez tie for third with nine each.
- McDowell has incurred eight penalties, the highest of the drivers I analyzed. Busch comes in second with seven penalties. Austin Cindric and Truex each have six.
- Some drivers have proven good at winning the first race at a new track: Elliott won COTA and the Daytona Roval. Larson won Nashvillle. Logano won the first races at Gateway, Bristol Dirt, and the L.A. Coliseum.
- Despite having won at Watkins Glen, A.J. Allmendinger’s average on non-roval road courses is 17.0. However, he qualified 10th for Sunday’s race. He — along with Shane van Gisbergen, Jenson Button and McDowell — has previous street course experience.
- There is no data for van Gisbergen and one race of data for Button, but both were strong in practice. Van Gisbergen will start third and Button eighth.
- Elliott is a perennial favorite at road courses; however, he ranked only 20th in practice and crashed during qualifying. Even so, I wouldn’t count him out entirely.
The Chicago Street Race airs at 5 p.m. ET Sunday on NBC and Peacock. Green flag is scheduled to wave at 5:05 p.m. ET.
