While some drivers are still fighting for a place in the playoffs, those already in are focused on what might be the most challenging playoff schedule yet.
In 2017, the first year of stage racing, five 1.5-mile tracks dominated the last 10 races. This year features two road courses and two superspeedways for the first time. The remainder of the schedule includes three 1.5-mile tracks plus Bristol, Martinsvsille and Phoenix.
NASCAR grouped the tracks so that the first round doesn’t even include a typical intermediate track. Short-superspeedway Atlanta opens round one, followed by road course Watkins Glen and Bristol. The second round is just as intimidating: Kansas, Talladega and the Charlotte Roval.
That schedule gives lower seeded playoff drivers a greater possibility of advancing, and drivers who haven’t won yet a chance to steal a victory from the championship contenders. This lineup also could eliminate top drivers who happen to have two weeks of really bad luck.
When Atlanta was reconfigured into a superspeedway in 2022, its average DNF rate jumped from around five percent to above 20 percent. Over the last five Atlanta races, 42 out of 183 cars — 23.3% — did not finish the race. Eight of 37 cars (21.6%) failed to finish this spring’s race.
You might remember that last year’s Atlanta fall race was an exception with only three DNFs. Don’t count on that happening this year. Atlanta was the 19th race last year, which means it wasn’t part of the playoffs. I refer anyone expecting driver restraint to last week’s finish at Richmond.
Bristol closes out the first round with an average DNF rate of 18.3% over the last five pavement races. This year’s spring race had just one DNF, but recall that abnormal tire wear produced a highly unusual contest. Without that race, Bristol’s recent average DNF rate is over 26%.
Impact on playoff drivers
Playoff drivers have two ways to insulate themselves from the probable chaos: winning the regular-season championship and collecting as many playoff points as possible in the last three races.
Playoff points are mathematical magic because they come back at the start of each round. Chase Elliott wouldn’t have made it to the finals in 2022 without the cache of playoff points he amassed.
In addition to the the 15 playoff points for race wins and 30 playoff points for stage wins up for grabs in the last three races, the regular-season champion earns 15 additional playoff points. The second-place driver earns 10 playoff points and the third-place driver eight.
The graph below summarizes where the top drivers stand as of Richmond. Total points are broken down into points from finishes (in blue) and stage points (in red.)
This graph shows how Kyle Larson’s stage points and race wins compensate for having missed an entire race. Larson has the most race wins of any driver with four and leads in total points (779), stage points (225) and playoff points (28).
But Larson also has the second highest DNF rate (13.6%) of any driver guaranteed in the playoffs with three DNFs in 22 races. Winning the regular season would enable him to start the playoffs with at least 43 playoff points, a buffer of more than two-thirds of a perfect race (60 points).
Tyler Reddick’s third-place finish at Richmond puts him only five points behind Larson in the overall standings. Elliott trails Larson by six points. But Reddick has earned only eight playoff points and Elliott six. That gives them little protection against mechanical issues, poor execution or accidents.
Winning the regular season would take Reddick to a minimum of 23 playoff points or Elliott to at least 21. That’s a much more comfortable buffer against catastrophe, but it’s still no guarantee.
Fourth-place Denny Hamlin is only 21 points out of the lead. Hamlin has the third-most playoff points with 21. That 15-point bonus would give him at least 36 points of a buffer and his best playoff advantage since 2020, when he started the playoffs with 47 playoff points.
Ryan Blaney and Christopher Bell are in fifth and sixth place in the points, 77 and 78 points behind Larson. Bell has the second-highest number of playoff points (25) but also the second-highest DNF rate of any driver in the series at 21.7%. If Bell can’t catch up to Larson for the regular-season championship, he should root for Reddick and Elliott.
On the positive side, remember that a tough schedule is tough for everyone. Two playoff drivers — Austin Cindric and Daniel Suarez — have a total of three top-five finishes between them. These drivers sit in 20th and 16th places and are just as susceptible to mishap as the drivers at the front of the standings.
That means the top drivers don’t necessarily need to have zero mishaps. They just need to have fewer mishaps than the bottom of the field to get through the first round.