Jett Lawrence and Haiden Deegan are this week’s favorites for High Point National and the only two riders with minus odds heading into Round 4 of the Pro Motocross season.
With a -250 line in a field of 11 riders showing odds at BetOnline.com, sportsbook traders are not taking any chances with Lawrence despite his mistake two weeks ago in the Hangtown Motocross Classic.
But Lawrence has been beaten on track this year, and when he was out of the picture in the Northern California race, Chase Sexton quickly donned the mantle and scored a perfect record in moto victories. However, he was not ideal from the gate drop, and a fall at the start of Moto 2 was a precursor of what fans would see one week later at Thunder Valley. His 1-1 finish concerns traders, and his odds of +200 (2/1) reflect that.
Jett has also been bested in head-to-head competition. Last week, he and Hunter Lawrence had similar starts to both motos, but Jett could not get through the field with enough energy to pass his brother. At +300, Hunter is a better value than Sexton overall since he came close to winning last week’s overall.
There are a couple of interesting dark horses this week. Aaron Plessinger (+1000) was poised to take the victory at Hangtown until Sexton rode him down. Plessinger must get good starts in both motos and avoid a tendency to fade at the end of races to cover that bet.
Malcolm Stewart is also worth watching for the next few weeks. He’s not quite ready to win, but as was detailed in this week’s 5 Things to Watch, he is showing more speed in Motocross than he did in Supercross, and with +5000 odds, he is worth a modest bet with the spare change found in the couch cushions.
Stewart may not be relevant for this week’s overall win, but BetOnline.com has an attractive head-to-head parlay against Dylan Ferrandis. Ferrandis is favored at -200, which provides an opportunity for bettors who favor Stewart at +150.
Holeshots are much less predictable than overall wins, and there are four riders with minus odds for the best start. As expected, Jett (-700), Sexton (-200), and Hunter (-160) are included in this list, but Justin Cooper’s -110 reveals a lot more confidence in his ability to get out of the gate fast than his +700 odds for the overall win.
The 250 division is more competitive. Deegan’s sweep of the first three motos makes him the only rider in this division with negative odds at -150, but bettors do not know how long his streak will last and should not take the risk.
Three riders post up at +300 this week, so if Tom Vialle, Levi Kitchen, or Chance Hymas show speed in qualification, they could pry open the coin purse.
Based on the strength of the Honda HRC team, Jo Shimoda (+1200) is this week’s most attractive dark horse.
There are two compelling head-to-head parlays. Vialle (-140) is matched against Hymas (+100), and the closeness of those lines results from mistakes by both in the first three rounds.
Vialle (+135) is also matched to Deegan (-175), and there is a little more juice for the squeeze there.
Three riders, Deegan (-500), Vialle (-155), and Hymas (-150), have minus odds for the holeshot. Pierce Brown is listed at +1200 as the best rider out of the gate and cannot be discounted.
More SuperMotocross News
5 Things to Watch for in High Point
450 Results from Thunder Valley | 250 Results
Jett Lawrence responds with Thunder Valley win
Michael Mosiman out for remainder of MX
Nate Thrasher out with collarbone injury
Thunder Valley by the numbers
Chase Sexton sweeps Hangtown, snaps Lawrence’s streak
AMA explains Deegan, Vialle discrepancy
Dave Prater wants to keep SMX riders guessing
Haiden Deegan waits four hours for Fox victory
