Triston

McKenzie

McKenzie had been projected by MLBTradeRumors.com to earn $2.4 million via arbitration, so it looks like the Guardians may have gotten a bit of a discount here after the right-hander’s rough 2024 season. The 27-year-old hurler made just 16 starts at the big league level in 2024, registering an uninspiring 5.11 ERA, 1.56 WHIP and a 74/49 K/BB ratio across 75 2/3 innings. Perhaps he’s able to cure what ails him over the winter and is able to return to the Guardians’ rotation with a vengeance in 2025. At his current average draft position — outside the top-500 players overall — he makes for a nice late-round lottery ticket in deeper formats.

McKenzie gets the boot with the Guardians bringing Gavin Williams (elbow) off the 60-day injured list to make his season debut this week. McKenzie has been awful on the mound as of late while allowing 12 earned runs and walking 11 over his last three starts. There’s still plenty of reason for long-term optimism as a 26-year-old who has had as much success as he’s had, but fantasy managers should look elsewhere for help in their rotation at this point.

McKenzie issued the first intentional walk of his career to Bobby Witt Jr. in the third, though it was one of those in which the pitcher got to a 3-0 count and then put him on. The Royals went on to score three times afterwards, though things were probably trending in that direction anyway. McKenzie’s velocity has climbed some since the start of the year, but his results have been dreadful lately; he’s pitched just 7 2/3 innings and given up 12 earned runs and 11 walks in his last three starts.

Rain or no rain, McKenzie had maybe one inning of work left in this one as efficiency continues to elude him. He hasn’t completed six innings since May 17th and hasn’t walked fewer than two batters in a start since May 1st.

This is now the fifth straight subpar start for McKenzie, who had an uptick in velocity tonight but saw no benefit from it. We know he’s pitching through an injury, and he’s just clearly not healthy when he’s out there on the mound right now. He didn’t throw a single slider in the strike zone tonight and had just a 40 percent zone rate overall. With Gavin Williams on the way back, you have to wonder if McKenzie might be in jeopardy of losing his spot in the rotation. He’ll take a 4.48 ERA into an okay matchup against the Blue Jays this weekend, but he’s simply tough to trust right now.

The lanky right-hander allowed two extra-base hits and five hard-hit baseballs while striking out four and walking two. He induced just five whiffs on 31 swings for a 16 percent whiff rate and 23 percent CSW on the night. McKenzie had allowed 12 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts, so this was a much better performance, but he’s clearly not healthy and is not missing bats consistently which makes him risky for fantasy leagues. He currently lines up for a two-start week against the Mariners and Blue Jays next week.

McKenzie allowed four extra-base hits on the day but three of them were home runs, including two by Bobby Witt Jr. The lanky right-hander was able to pitch well after word came out that he was pitching through a tear in his throwing elbow; however, he’s now allowed 12 earned runs over 15 1/3 innings in his last three starts. McKenzie’s off-speed pitches posted 10 whiffs on 19 swings, but his four-seam fastball didn’t miss bats and got hit hard. Given his injury and lack of velocity, McKenzie is walking a tightrope and doesn’t need to be held in all fantasy leagues. He now has a 4.16 ERA on the season heading into a tasty matchup against the Marlins on Sunday.

McKenzie left with a three-run lead, but he was denied a win after that was blown in the sixth. The no-decision left him 0-1 in his last seven starts, even though the Guardians have gone 6-1 in those games. But let’s just keep pretending win-loss records matters in 2024.

Pete Alonso, Jeff McNeil and Harrison Bader hit the homers. McKenzie averaged a season-low 89.7 mph with his fastball today, down from 91.0 previously and 92.4 mph before he hurt his elbow last year. It’s impressive that he has a 3.44 ERA to date, but he doesn’t seem like a very good bet at this point.

McKenzie’s success this season has been a welcome sight after an injury-riddled 2023. He’s still not quite back to the best version of himself yet, evidenced by the 5:4 strikeout to walk ratio in this start and paltry 5 K-BB% on the season.