The first half of the 2023 major league baseball season has been written; and it is fascinating. There are so many absorbing storylines and so many new characters to keep track of. It’s not like we haven’t had seasons with players chasing historic milestones; it’s not like we haven’t seen seasons where multiple also-rans suddenly contend; it’s not like we haven’t seen seasons with new rules that energized and invigorated the game…it’s just that we never saw all of that at one time!
Straight “A”s
A is for attendance, which is up in baseball for a variety of reasons. And it’s really up in places like Philadelphia, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Cincinnati.
A is for Acuna, Jr. Ronald Acuna, Jr. is having a season for the ages. Through the Braves’ first 79 games, he is slashing .330/.404/.586 with 19 HR, 35 SB. That puts him on pace for 39 HR and 72 stolen bases. No player has ever combined 30 homers and 60 steals in a season (and only Eric Davis in 1987 and Barry Bonds in 1990 have even managed 30+HR/50+ SB). Acuna could be knocking down the door to enter a 40HR/70 SB club.
Acuna leads the majors in runs scored (70 in 79 games, a pace of 144 runs for the season). Do you know when the last time anyone in baseball scored more than 140 runs in a season? It was Alex Rodriguez in 2007, when he scored 143 runs in a year he hit 54 HR, 156 RBI, and stole 24 bases in 28 attempts.
The Braves’ leadoff batter scored 25 runs in just the first innings. Acuna Jr. is batting .437 in the first innings, with a .500 OBA.
A is for Arraez. Luis Arraez is flirting with .400 (averaging .399 through the Marlins’ first 80 games); a remarkable achievement in any era, but especially this one. Through games of June 27, Arraez was batting .399 (113-283 AB). The next closest qualifying hitter was Acuna, Jr. at .330 (69 points back of Arraez). No other qualifying hitter in baseball was averaging even .325.
Arraez is batting .399 when the MLB average in 2023 is .248.
Ted Williams batted .406 when the MLB average in 1941 was .262
Tony Gwynn batted .394 when the MLB average in 1994 was .270.
Ted Williams is regarded as the greatest hitter ever, but the fact remains he played when the game was segregated. He didn’t face Black pitchers or Asian pitchers or Latin pitchers in 1941. He didn’t even face National League pitchers. He barely faced relief pitchers. Ted faced 74 different pitchers all season. Arraez has faced 148 different pitchers in his first 79 games.
And the last shall be first…
In 2022, the Rangers, Reds, Diamondbacks, and Marlins were never in the hunt. This year, they’ve all turned things around.
2022 Season
Cincinnati Reds 62-100
Texas Rangers 68- 94
Miami Marlins 69-93
Arizona DBacks 74-88
The Reds haven’t made the postseason in a 162-game season since 2013, when their playoff run consisted of a single game, a wild card loss to the Pirates. They have been jolted with young talent, particularly Elly De La Cruz.
The Diamondbacks haven’t made the postseason since 2017, when they won the wild card game and then got swept by the Dodgers in the Division Series. That was Arizona’s only year in the playoffs since 2011.
The Rangers haven’t made the postseason since 2016, when they were swept in the Division Series by the Blue Jays.
And the Marlins haven’t made the postseason in a 162-game schedule since 2003, when they won the World Series (Miami beat the Cubs in a Wild Card series in 2020, and then were swept by the Braves).
This year, the Reds, Rangers, and Diamondbacks will all battle for their division crowns. The Marlins will likely battle for wild card berths since they reside in the same division as Atlanta.
And there was fun in Pittsburgh, which started 2023 by winning 20 of their first 29 games, spending 27 days in first place. Not bad for a team that went 62-100 in 2022.
Ohtani’s 2023 is his masterpiece
I no longer worry that he is a “one-year” wonder. Or a “two-year” wonder. Or a “three-year” wonder. He is the best player of his generation, and yes, let me say it, the best player in Angels franchise history (saying a lot, considering his teammate Mike Trout).
Shohei Ohtani has more home runs (28) and more RBIs (64) and more extra-base hits (47) and a higher slugging percentage (.654, with Acuna being the next highest at .586) and more total bases (200) than anyone in baseball the first half of the season.
And as a pitcher, the Angels have won 11 of his 16 starts. Ohtani has a 3.02 ERA, 9th-best in the A.L. and much better than the MLB starting pitcher average of 4.42. Ohtani has 127 strikeouts which is second in MLB to Kevin Gausman. And Shohei’s 12 K/9 IP is second among qualifying starters behind only Spencer Strider. Opponents are batting just .180 off of Ohtani this season.
Perhaps most importantly, the Angels are winning games, celebrating home runs with a celebration head piece, a samurai warrior helmet known as a kabuto; and have a legit shot at making the postseason, something they haven’t done since 2014.
One of the main stories in the second half of the season will be to see if the Angels can qualify for the postseason, and if Ohtani can remain healthy. Baseball needs Ohtani to play in October on the grandest of stages.
Money isn’t everything
The New York Mets have a $359 million dollar payroll and are 16 games out of first place on June 28. The Mets spent so much money on the front end of their rotation, but their starting pitching has a combined 4.82 ERA and ranks among the worst rotations in the game.
Justin Verlander had a 1.75 ERA last year with Houston. This year, he’s made 10 starts and the Mets have lost 7 of them. Perhaps a multi-year contract to a pitcher in his 40s isn’t the best ROI?
Meanwhile, last December 7, Aaron Judge announced he would return to the Yankees on a nine-year contract worth $360 million dollars. Judge was pursued aggressively by the San Francisco Giants, and Judge spurned them.
On June 3, Judge crashed into the right field fence at Dodger Stadium while making an acrobatic catch, slamming his right foot into the wall’s concrete base. Three weeks later, he revealed he has a torn ligament in his right big toe and there is no timetable for his return. The Yankees batted .193 in the first 17 games that Judge has been out for—and tallied just 3 runs per game.
Meanwhile, the Giants have contended in the N.L. West, playing a team that has eight rookies on it. San Francisco signed right fielder Michael Conforto as a consolation prize to a 2-year, $36 million dollar contract after losing out narrowly on Judge and shortstop Carlos Correa. Judge hit 62 more home runs than Conforto did last year (Conforto didn’t play recovering from shoulder surgery) but in 2023, Conforto’s 12 homers in the first half are only 7 behind Judge.
The three highest payrolls in baseball are all underperforming. The Mets and Yankees are followed behind by the San Diego Padres, who carry a payroll of more than $245 million dollars.
The Padres have been a mess all season. Too many reasons but start with the fact that Manny Machado and Xander Bogaerts have had below-par seasons as well as reports that the clubhouse is divided.
Keeping pitchers healthy is impossible, a battle of attrition
The Tampa Bay Rays started the season 13-0 and have been led by the best group of starting pitching in the league. They lost Jeffrey Springs (Tommy John surgery) after three superb starts in April. They’ve lost Drew Rasmussen (flexor tendon) after eight starts in May. Tyler Glasnow (oblique) didn’t make his first start until Memorial Day weekend. And if ace Shane McClanahan (11-1, 2.23 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) is out for any length of time, it could derail the Rays chances. McClanahan left his June 22 start against the Royals with mid-back tightness.
The Braves are working without their front-end starters Max Fried and Kyle Wright. The Dodgers are working without Julio Urias and Dustin May (not to mention Walker Buehler, out the entire season).
The Astros are working without Luis Garcia (not to mention Lance McCullers Jr, out the entire season).
Jacob deGrom made six starts for Texas before being lost for the season. The Yankees started the season with three starters on the IL. Carlos Rodon still hasn’t thrown a pitch for his new team.
It’s not as important to cover 200 innings anymore as it is to be healthy in September and October.
New Rules are working!
Players have adjusted and umpires have adjusted and fans have adjusted to the pitch clock.
The average time of game (through the first 1,092 games) is 2:37. Last year, it was 3:03.
Last year, 10.5% of the games went 3:30 or longer. This year, only 0.3% of the games have gone as long. We don’t go as long without Balls-in-Play.
And because of the extra-inning rule putting a runner on second base to start every half inning, we’ve seen very few long extra-inning games. Of the first 1,092 games, only two of them have gone longer than 12 innings (both 14 inning games; a May 7 Marlins victory over the Cubs and a June 9 Cleveland victory over Houston).
The shift restrictions? It brought more offense to the game. Batting averages are higher this year (.248 from .243). Batting averages on ground balls are higher than last year (.247, up from .241). Batting averages on ground balls by LHB is up a lot (.240, up from .226).
The bigger bases? There are a lot more stolen bases this year, and the stolen base percentage is up to 79.3% (last year, it was 75.4%).
What to expect in the second half of the season
If Ohtani and Acuna, Jr. are standing at the end of the season, they’re the most valuable players.
I know it sounds crazy, but one of Buck Showalter’s former teams that he managed (the Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rangers, or Orioles) will win the World Series.
There can’t be a perfect season without a perfect game, so I will predict the first perfect game since Felix Hernandez threw one (against the Rays on August 15, 2012). If I’m going to predict a perfect game, I might as well really throw a dart and select a pitcher. I’ll pick one that hasn’t pitched in a game since April of 2022, Baltimore left-hander John Means. Means is recovering from Tommy John surgery, but after a May setback, he’s throwing again and hopes for an August return.
Look, if we could have a player go 40/40; another one hit two homers in the same game he strikes out 10 batters; and have complete games in 2:15; we could have a perfect game from a pitcher that hasn’t worked in two years. Consider this my Means to the end of this column.
