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Look past ERA and Chad Qualls can be a free agent bargain

Chad Qualls

Tampa Bay Rays pitcher Chad Qualls (55) gestures as he is removed during the fifth inning after giving up a three-run home run to the Texas Rangers during Game 2 of baseball’s American League Division Series, Thursday, Oct. 7, 2010 in St. Petersburg, Fla. (AP Photo/Chris O’Meara)

AP

With a 7.32 ERA in 59 innings split between two teams Chad Qualls had a dreadful season, but most of that can be blamed on a .399 batting average on balls in play that was the worst in all of baseball among the 327 pitchers who logged at least 50 innings.

In fact, Qualls was one of just two pitchers with a batting average on balls in play above .375. Qualls could be unlucky again in 2011 and that number would still probably drop by 40 points, and his career mark is .309.

Thanks to a solid strikeout rate and high percentage of ground balls he posted a nice-looking Expected Fielding Independent Pitching (xFIP) of 3.91, which is typically a better predictor of future ERA than ERA itself. And both his xFIPs and ERAs were consistently in the 2.75-3.50 range from 2004-2009.

Even while struggling Qualls maintained good velocity on his fastball-slider combo and if teams can avoid being scared off by his ugly ERA there’s a quality setup man to be found in Qualls’ track record and secondary numbers.