For the second straight month, we have a new No. 1 in our rankings. The National League Wild Card race is wide open, with a number of teams getting hot at the right time. As you’ll notice reading along with the analysis, two-thirds of MLB teams still fancy themselves as contenders for now. That’s fun for the sport.
Editor’s Note: Odds and statistics used are from the morning of Saturday, August 3.
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AUGUST MLB TEAM POWER RANKINGS
1) Cleveland Guardians
Last month: No. 2
Odds to win the World Series: +1100
Say hello to our new No.1 team. You can certainly poke holes in the depth of the Guardians’ offense, so president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti got to work and picked up outfielder Lane Thomas from the Nationals for a trio of prospects. Thomas has been more selective at the plate this year — which certainly plays into the Guardians’ model — and also brings value with his baserunning and his throwing arm. One bonus is that Thomas is also under team control for next year. The Guardians also took a flier on veteran right-hander Alex Cobb as part of a trade with the Giants. Cobb has been out all season rehabbing from hip surgery and a shoulder issue, but the Guardians apparently feel confident he can be a factor for the stretch run.
2) Philadelphia Phillies
Last month: No. 1
Odds to win the World Series: +490
The Phillies drop out of the top spot after dropping seven out of their last eight games, including a sweep at the hands of the Yankees in Philadelphia this week. Dave Dombrowski was proactive at the trade deadline, adding Carlos Estévez and Tanner Banks to the bullpen and Austin Hays to their outfield mix. Estévez was the closer for the Angels, and should continue to see plenty of work in the ninth inning in his new digs. While Hays has struggled this season, the plan calls for him to be the primary left fielder for now. Hays, a right-handed hitter, is in a much better position to succeed in Philadelphia.
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3) Baltimore Orioles
Last month: No. 3
Odds to win the World Series: +650
Should the Orioles have done more? It’s hard not to feel underwhelmed at the finished product from the trade deadline. Zach Eflin is a strong addition for a rotation which needed depth, but he hasn’t looked like the 2023 edition this year. Maybe the biggest headscratcher was giving up prospect infielder Connor Norby and outfielder Kyle Stowers to land Trevor Rogers from the Marlins. While the southpaw has had better results since late May, advanced metrics haven’t really backed up what he’s been doing. Rogers got blasted in his Orioles debut on Thursday against the Guardians, which isn’t going to help the vibes.
With the other acquisitions (Austin Slater, Eloy Jiménez, Gregory Soto, Seranthony Dominguez), the Orioles are certainly a better team than they were a couple of weeks ago, but they missed a chance to truly go all-in for an elite starting pitcher. Still, it’s cool to see that both Jackson Holliday and Coby Mayo are in the majors now.
JACKSON HOLLIDAY!
— MLB (@MLB) July 31, 2024
His first big league homer is a grand slam! pic.twitter.com/UhYSrT2MiQ
4) New York Yankees
Last month: No. 4
Odds to win the World Series: +550
The vibes with the Yankees are suddenly good again. You can (mostly) thank Jazz Chisholm Jr. for that, as he has been on an absolute tear since coming over from the Marlins in a trade last weekend. Chisholm has hit safely in four out of his five games with the club, including a pair of multi-homer games in their sweep of the Phillies this week. Chisholm is (understandably) getting most of the attention right now in terms of lengthening the lineup, but the acquisition of Mark Leiter Jr. from the Cubs is a big add for this bullpen.
5) Los Angeles Dodgers
Last month: No. 5
Odds to win the World Series: +340
As far as the buying teams, one could make the case that the Dodgers did better than anyone. Jack Flaherty was the big ticket item, and a must with all of the injury issues and uncertainty in the starting rotation. Flaherty has turned back the clock this year with a 2.95 ERA and 133/19 K/BB ratio in 106 2/3 innings across 18 starts. However, the Dodgers also added Tommy Edman in a three-team trade, Amed Rosario from the Rays, and defensive whiz Kevin Kiermaier in a deal with the Blue Jays. The Dodgers have a lot of moving pieces, which could eventually send Mookie Betts back to right field when he comes off the injured list this month.
6) Milwaukee Brewers
Last month: No. 6
Odds to win the World Series: +2400
The Brewers left July with Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale as new arrivals to their rotation and Nick Mears as additional bullpen depth. The hope is that all three pitchers can thrive with a change of scenery, but perhaps the most important addition is Devin Williams as he returns from stress fractures in his back. Christian Yelich is dealing with a back issue of his own right now, but he’s hoping the rest and rehab route will get him back on the field rather than undergoing season-ending surgery.
7) Kansas City Royals
Last month: No. 9
Odds to win the World Series: +3900
As opposed to their AL Central rivals from Minnesota, the Royals were proactive to capitalize on their surprising season. After adding Hunter Harvey to their bullpen earlier in the month, the club landed hard-throwing Lucas Erceg from the Athletics on deadline day. They also picked up Michael Lorenzen from the Rangers to slot behind Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Brady Singer, and Michael Wacha in the starting rotation. With Bobby Witt Jr. establishing himself as one of the best players in the game, the Royals are a legitimate threat to win the pennant.
8) Minnesota Twins
Last month: No. 7
Odds to win the World Series: +1500
The Twins are in a strong position for a Wild Card spot, with a clear need for rotation depth, and they walked away from the trade deadline with…Trevor Richards? Dan Hayes of The Athletic wrote about the reaction in the Twins’ clubhouse, which ranged from “disheartening” to lack of surprise due to payroll restrictions from ownership. Royce Lewis homered and knocked in a season-high four runs on Friday, after which he was delayed talking to the press because he had to take a drug test. The result? One of the best quotes in baseball this year.
Royce Lewis apologized (as he always does) for making us wait a few minutes for his postgame interview and explained that it's because he keeps getting pulled aside for drug tests.
— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) August 3, 2024
"All they're going to find in these veins is ice cream, bro."
Same, Royce. Same.
9) Atlanta Braves
Last month: No. 8
Odds to make the playoffs: -1200
Odds to win the World Series: +1000
The Braves are looking to run it back. After signing Eddie Rosario last month, the club acquired (or should we say reacquired?) slugger Jorge Soler and reliever Luke Jackson from the Giants. Of course, all three played a part in the Braves’ World Series run in 2021. Nothing wrong with a little nostalgia. After losing six games in a row, the Braves have won six out of seven to climb within five games of the slumping Phillies in the NL East. With injuries to key players, do they have enough to chase them down?
10) Boston Red Sox
Last month: No. 11
Odds to make the playoffs: +175
Odds to win the World Series: +5000
The biggest need for the Red Sox going into the deadline was their bullpen and Craig Breslow made a couple of nice under-the-radar moves with Lucas Sims from the Reds and Luis Garcia from the Angels. One notable surprise was dealing prospect infielder Nick Yorke to the Pirates for right-hander Quinn Priester, but Boston’s pitching braintrust apparently sees something in the 2019 first-rounder. Perhaps the biggest addition for the Red Sox will be Triston Casas, who just started a minor league rehab assignment. It sounds like things are going....fine?
I spoke with Triston Casas today in Worcester. He said, “Right now when I make contact with the ball, it feels like someone’s stabbing me with a knife right in the ribs… Right when it happened I felt like I got shot with a gun, so it’s dulled down.”
— Laura Stickells (@LauraStickells) August 2, 2024
11) Arizona Diamondbacks
Last month: No. 17
Odds to make the playoffs: -164
Odds to win the World Series: +3700
The defending National League champions are the hottest team in the majors over the past month, with Eugenio Suarez suddenly looking like the 2017-2018 version of himself. He’s smacked 10 homers in his last 20 games, including his second career three-homer game this week. The lineup will certainly miss Christian Walker as he rehabs an oblique injury, but the club picked up Josh Bell as an insurance policy this week. They also propped up their bullpen with the additions of Dylan Floro and A.J. Puk. If Eduardo Rodriguez can come back and give something to the rotation, another playoff run appears within their grasp.
12) New York Mets
Last month: No. 15
Odds to make the playoffs: -104
Odds to win the World Series: +5000
While visions of a top-tier starting pitcher or reliever danced in Mets’ fans heads, David Stearns decided to play it a bit more conservative at the trade deadline. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. The price for pitching was out of control, so Stearns still did well to find rotation help (Paul Blackburn) and revamp his bullpen (Phil Maton, Ryne Stanek, Huascar Brazobán) without giving up a top prospect. The Mets also added Jesse Winker from the Nationals, which gives them another strong option against right-handed pitching. The lineup looks good enough, but can the Mets withstand the absences of Kodai Senga and Christian Scott?
13) San Diego Padres
Last month: No. 12
Odds to make the playoffs: -192
Odds to win the World Series: +3000
The Padres have been one of the hottest teams in the game over the past month and A.J. Preller certainly believes, as he paid a high price to not only get right-hander Jason Adam from the Rays, but also left-hander Tanner Scott from the Marlins. With Robert Suarez thriving in the closer role, this gives the Padres a three-headed monster late in games. That could be a real X factor during a postseason series, but the big question for San Diego is if they have enough starting pitching to get there.
14) Houston Astros
Last month: No. 14
Odds to make the playoffs: -196
Odds to win the World Series: +1400
Yusei Kikuchi is a perfectly respectable starting pitcher. And beyond his 4.75 ERA this season, you can certainly argue that he’s been unlucky. Still, the Astros parted with prospect right-hander Jake Bloss, first baseman/outfielder Joey Loperfido, and prospect second baseman Will Wagner. All of that for a pitcher who is due to become a free agent this offseason. Given the injuries in the starting rotation, the Astros were willing to pay the price in order to make another deep run in the postseason.
15) Seattle Mariners
Last month: No. 10
Odds to make the playoffs: -128
Odds to win the World Series: +2400
Aside from a sweep of the White Sox, the Mariners haven’t won a series since a two-game sweep of the Padres July 9-10. The club had a 10-game lead in the division as recently as June 18, but now they find themselves neck-and-neck with a club who has made reaching the ALCS an annual tradition. The offense has been an issue most of the year, so the hope is that veteran bats Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner can provide some legitimacy to the lineup. That’s especially important with Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford facing extended absences.
16) St. Louis Cardinals
Last month: No. 13
Odds to make the playoffs: +320
Odds to win the World Series: +7500
The Cardinals were involved in the most complicated trade deadline deal, as they added right-hander Erick Fedde and outfielder Tommy Pham as part of a three-team trade with the White Sox and Dodgers. St. Louis parted with former Gold Glover Tommy Edman and prospect right-hander Oliver Gonzalez. It felt like a small price to pay, especially with Fedde under contract for just $7.5 million next season. Fedde, who has thrived after in his stint in the KBO, gives the Cardinals a strong No. 3 behind Sonny Gray and Kyle Gibson.
Tommy Pham’s grand slam in his first game back for the Cardinals was a nice moment this week.
GRAND SLAM TOMMY PHAM!!#ForTheLou pic.twitter.com/iyfEJbjeRp
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) July 31, 2024
17) Pittsburgh Pirates
Last month: No. 19
Odds to make the playoffs: +630
Odds to win the World Series: +31000
First off, how refreshing is it that the Pirates are actually buying at the trade deadline? With a Wild Card spot there for the taking, the Pirates nabbed outfielder Bryan De La Cruz from the Marlins and utility man Isiah Kiner-Falefa from the Blue Jays. These weren’t flashy moves, but they provide depth and incremental improvement. Make no mistake: If the Pirates reach the postseason, it will almost certainly be on the backs of their exciting and dynamic starting rotation. Let it rip.
18) San Francisco Giants
Last month: No. 18
Odds to make the playoffs: +530
Odds to win the World Series: +20000
So that’s why the Giants kept Blake Snell. After making 201 career starts without a complete game, Snell finally went the distance on Friday night against the Reds while throwing a no-hitter in the process. It’s been a tumultuous season for the southpaw, but he’s found his groove lately with 26 strikeouts over his last two starts and a 0.55 ERA over his last five starts. The Giants weren’t true sellers at the deadline, as they parted with Jorge Soler and Alex Cobb while adding veteran Mark Canha. Most importantly, they held on to multiple players who could have helped contenders. This rotation is something to dream on.
Blake Snell tosses the 18th no-hitter in @SFGiants history! pic.twitter.com/KVS3tml6CR
— MLB (@MLB) August 3, 2024
19) Texas Rangers
Last month: No. 25
Odds to make the playoffs: +940
Odds to win the World Series: +11000
The Rangers aren’t giving up yet either, even though Jon Gray and Max Scherzer are injured and Evan Carter is expected to miss the rest of the season due to a lumbar sprain in his back. The club added Andrew. Chafin to their bullpen as well as Carson Kelly as catching depth. The return of third baseman Josh Jung is of even more importance. The hope is that Tyler Mahle and Cody Bradford aren’t far behind as options for the rotation.
20) Chicago Cubs
Last month: No. 22
It would require a dramatic turnaround for the Cubs to make a run at a playoff spot, but they played it smart at the trade deadline with some strategic moves. While dealing Mark Leiter Jr. was a traditional “seller” move, their acquisitions of All-Star Isaac Paredes and hard-throwing reliever Nate Pearson are aimed at trying to contend again next year.
21) Cincinnati Reds
Last month: No. 21
A fun little quirk about these Cincinnati Reds. They are 5-5 in their last 10 games, 10-10 in their last 20 games, and 15-15 in their last 30 games. The Reds also went 2-2 in Hunter Greene’s starts during July despite him allowing just one run in 27 innings. I respect the symmetry, but it’s not helping them bridge the gap in the playoff race.
22) Detroit Tigers
Last month: No. 24
The Tigers held some legitimate ace cards leading into the trade deadline, but they ended up keeping Tarik Skubal while dealing Jack Flaherty to the Dodgers. Compared to the Blue Jays’ return for Yuesi Kikuchi — also a rental pitcher, but having a worse season — you can’t blame Tigers’ fans being underwhelmed at the return of catcher/first baseman Thayron Liranzo and shortstop Trey Sweeney. However, Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic reported that the Yankees nearly had a deal for Flaherty on Tuesday night before balking due to his medical records. Maybe the Tigers mistimed the market, but maybe there were some issues they couldn’t control.
By the way, this exchange between Royals slugger Salvador Perez and Tarik Skubal is just outstanding.
Game recognize game 🙏😆 pic.twitter.com/ohlLT5aX74
— Detroit Tigers (@tigers) August 3, 2024
23) Tampa Bay Rays
Last month: No. 16
The two Florida teams meant business at the deadline. Long-accustomed to the postseason, the Rays spun their “off year” into a flurry of moves including trades for fan favorite Randy Arozarena and All-Star Isaac Paredes. It was a sweeping refresh for the roster, but one the Rays added major league pieces (Christopher Morel, Hunter Bigge, Dylan Carlson) and a host of interesting prospects (Dylan Lesko, Brody Hopkins, and Aidan Smith among them) as they look to future sustainability. Speaking of sustainability, the Rays aren’t going anywhere. The club’s stadium deal was approved this week, setting the stage for a new ballpark in downtown St. Petersburg to open in April 2028.
Another new era is on the horizon.
— Tampa Bay Rays (@RaysBaseball) July 31, 2024
For St. Petersburg, for Tampa Bay and for Rays fans – the future is bright! pic.twitter.com/CfXCj6zhjU
24) Toronto Blue Jays
Last month: No. 23
The Blue Jays entered the 2024 with big expectations, so this season will go down as a failure. Still, the Blue Jays made the most out of the situation at the deadline, pulling off eight trades. The Yusei Kikuchi deal drew the highest marks, as Jake Bloss is ready to help in the rotation right now and Joey Loperfido should get every opportunity to be the primary left fielder moving forward.
25) Washington Nationals
Last month: No. 20
With a big slide over the past month, the Nationals behaved like traditional sellers at the deadline. In one of the niftier deals of this trade season, Mike Rizzo was able to spin late-inning reliever Hunter Harvey to the Royals for prospect third baseman Cayden Wallace and a supplemental first-round pick which they turned into catcher Caleb Lomavita. The club also traded Jesse Winker to the Mets, Lane Thomas to the Guardians, and Dylan Floro to the Diamondbacks.
26) Los Angeles Angels
Last month: No. 26
The Angels traded relievers Carlos Estevez and Luis Garcia this week, but they also held on to players like Tyler Anderson, Luis Rengifo, and Taylor Ward. This organization feels stuck in neutral and the news that Mike Trout will miss the rest of the season with another torn meniscus only adds to the bleak outlook. Trout, who turns 33 next week, has appeared in just 266 games over the last four seasons. It’s just plain sad.
27) Oakland Athletics
Last month: No. 28
The A’s made some typical seller moves this week, but it was interesting to see them keep Brent Rooker around. Rooker has hit .385 with 12 home runs and a 1.288 OPS since the start of July, so Oakland surely had no shortage of inquiries. He still has three years of team control, so there was no urgency to get something done right now. Rooker sounds just fine with that.
Brent Rooker on sticking with A’s as part of future: “I’m thrilled. It’s where I want to be. I love the guys in the room. I believe in what we’ve got going on here. I believe in this group moving forward, we’re not far from being a pretty good team and winning a lot of games.”
— John Shea (@JohnSheaHey) July 30, 2024
28) Colorado Rockies
Last month: No. 29
The Rockies gonna Rockie. The club held on to the likes of Cal Quantrill, Brendan Rodgers, Austin Gomber, and Elias Díaz, all of whom could have been useful for contenders. It’s not exactly surprising given the Rockies’ history of — how should we put it? — interesting decisions. There will be some interesting things to watch down the stretch with Nolan Jones and Jordan Beck working their way back from injuries and top prospect Adael Amador likely to get another opportunity.
29) Miami Marlins
Last month: No. 27
Can someone check on Billy the Marlin? Is he alright? Peter Bendix essentially traded anything that wasn’t nailed down before deadline day, including six trades on Tuesday. Jazz Chisholm Jr., Tanner Scott, Trevor Rogers, A.J. Puk, Josh Bell, Bryan De La Cruz, A.J. Puk, Huascar Brazoban, Bryan Hoeing, and JT Chargois were all shipped out in the flurry of moves. You have to give Bendix credit for picking a lane. Connor Corby and Kyle Stowers were blocked in Baltimore, but they find themselves in a good situation after coming over in the Rogers trade. Agustin Ramirez (part of the Chisholm trade with the Yankees) might not be far off from making an impact in the majors either.
30) Chicago White Sox
Last month: No. 30
The White Sox lost their 18th consecutive game on Friday against the Twins. They’ve been outscored 112-39 during the streak, and now find themselves on the doorstep of the wrong kind of history. The modern record for longest losing streak (23 games) was set by the Phillies in 1961. With a 27-85 record, the White Sox are also on pace to surpass the 1962 Mets for the most losses (120) in a season.