Mitch

Keller

Keller attacked a left-handed-heavy Marlins lineup with tons of fastballs in the strike zone. He’s had a tendency to nibble in the past, so it was nice to see him go right at them. Also notable, Keller really leaned on his new kick-change – a popular changeup variant that has swept across the league – and used it as his second most frequent offering against lefties after barely throwing any type of changeup last season. The Marlins are an offense to target this season when pitchers are scheduled to face them and Keller took care of business in this one. He’s scheduled to face the Rays in his next start.

Keller, Bailey Falter and Andrew Heaney will close out the remainder of a four-game series against the Marlins after ace Paul Skenes takes the ball for his first-career Opening Day start. We’re assuming fifth starter Carmen Mlodzinski will make his season debut on Monday against the Rays, but that hasn’t been finalized.

Keller struck out five batters on the impressive afternoon and did not issue a base on balls. The only baserunner against him came on a leadoff single by Triston Casas in the second inning and he never advanced past first base. The 28-year-old right-hander has been exceptional during Grapefruit League action, posting a 2.40 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and a 13/7 K/BB ratio over 15 innings.

It’s striking that Keller is one of the least exciting arms in Pittsburgh’s starting rotation mix with top prospect Bubba Chandler on the verge of joining Paul Skenes and Jared Jones in the majors. The 28-year-old righty has plateaued as a durable innings-eater for fantasy purposes, but he lacks the strikeout upside necessary to jump to another level. He’s a top-75 range starting pitcher for fantasy purposes, which puts him in SP6 territory in shallow mixers.

He wound up with one strikeout and one walk. Of the 10 balls in play against Keller, only the double and single he surrendered were hard-hit balls. Keller has opened the spring with five scoreless innings, but he hasn’t done so in any sort of fashion to make us overly excited about him. He’s finished with ERA+s of 104, 106 and 99 the last three years, and more of the same would seem to be the most likely scenario here.

The Twins were aiming to get through this one quickly, it seemed. Three of their first five batters managed first-pitch singles against Keller, but two of the runners were quickly erased on double plays. Keller did manage to go deep enough to strike out one of the last two batters he faced. We’re going to guess he wound up throwing a few more pitches in the pen after his outing.

The right-hander also struck out six and walked two on the day. It was a fittingly inconsistent start for Keller, who has flashed the upside to be an SP2 in fantasy but also has the ability to be hit hard by any lineup. The 28-year-old finishes the season with a 4.25 ERA and a 166:50 K:BB ratio in 178 innings. He has shown better command over the last few years and consistently eats innings for the Pirates, but he figures to settle in at the back-half of their rotation behind young studs Paul Skenes, Jared Jones, and Bubba Chandler.

It’s the third time in eight starts that Keller has given up at least seven runs. His ERA, which was down to 3.20 on Aug. 3, sits at 4.21 now. To be fair, he simply didn’t have his usual stuff tonight; down 2-3 mph on all of his pitches, he got just three missed swings on 84 pitches. He’s scheduled for one more start, of course, but based on how he looked tonight, he might be shut down.

Keller served up a solo homer to Bobby Witt Jr. in the first inning, then settled in for three scoreless frames before giving up two more in the fifth. The Royals brought an unearned run in to score in the sixth on an error. Keller would be done after the six innings, striking out six batters on the day. The 33-year-old right-hander will take a 3.87 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, and a 159/43 K/BB ratio across 169 2/3 innings into a start against the Cardinals in St. Louis on Thursday.

Keller did give up seven hits, but he struck out eight without issuing a walk, and he also only gave up one extra-base hit. The right-hander bounced back from a mediocre outing against the Guardians on Saturday to lower his ERA to 3.85 and improve his K/BB to 153/42 over 163 2/3 innings. He’s scheduled to make one of his final starts of 2024 against the Royals on Saturday.