Mick

Abel

No real surprises here for the Phillies as they’ll protect three of their better pitching prospects from selection in next month’s Rule 5 Draft. Abel’s stock has tumbled considerably in the last year or two, but he’s still on the doorstep of the majors and could be an option for Philadelphia, if he manages to turn things around.

It’s Abel’s last start of the year, so he finishes 3-12 with a 6.46 ERA and a 117/78 K/BB in 108 2/3 innings for the IronPigs. He’s been a top 100 prospect for both Baseball America and MLB four years running, but that’s not going to carry into 2025. Fortunately, he’s just 23, and he has time to turn things around.

It’s probably the best start in what has been a very rough season for one of the Phillies’ best prospects. It’s the first time in 16 starts that Abel hasn’t allowed at least two runs and the third time he hasn’t walked at least two batters (he walked one). He’s 3-7 with a 6.53 ERA and a 69/54 K/BB in 73 innings.

No real surprises here as the Phillies’ starting rotation is set with Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suárez, Taijuan Walker and Christopher Sánchez. Abel started for the National League in the 2023 All-Star Futures Game and posted a 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP with a 126/62 K/BB ratio across 108 2/3 innings in Double-A. He was promoted to Triple-A in late September for and had one outing where he pitched 4 2/3 innings and allowed 2 earned runs and had six strikeouts. He’s likely to be called up if there is an injury to the Phillies’ starting rotation.

The 22-year-old is expected to join the Triple-A squad after the Double-A season concludes on Sunday. The former first-round pick has been suburb at Double-A this season, posting 4.14 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, and 128/62 K/BB ratio across 108 2/3 innings this season. He will likely begin the season at Triple-A and be just a step away from debuting in the major leagues.

Abel draws the starting assignment on Saturday in Seattle with an absolutely stacked senior circuit batting order providing support. Here’s the full lineup: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) CF, Jordan Lawlar (AZ) SS, Jackson Chourio (MIL) LF, James Wood (WSH), Noelvi Marte (CIN) 3B, Endy Rodríguez (PIT) 1B, Jefferson Quero (MIL) C, Ryan Bliss (AZ) 2B and Justin Crawford (PHI) DH.

The Phillies’ first round selection (15th overall) from the 2020 draft, Abel allowed just one walk over his two innings of work while striking out two batters. He has yet to allow a run through three total innings in his two appearances with the big league club during Grapefruit League play. The 21-year-old hurler finished the 2022 season at Double-A Reading, and it’s likely that he’ll return there to start the 2023 season. It wouldn’t be shocking at all though to see him get a couple of spot starts with the big league club in 2023.

Abel is considered one of the top prospects in the Phillies’ system and has compiled a solid 4.01 ERA, 1.32 WHIP and 103/38 K/BB ratio across 85 1/3 innings (18 starts) this season. The 21-year-old righty is universally-regarded as a top 75 prospect in the game.

The only hit allowed by Abel was a homer, and he didn’t walk anyone. The 15th pick of the 2020 draft, Abel has had mixed success in his first full professional season, but that’s to be expected for a pitcher that doesn’t turn 20 until the middle of August. His 4.91 ERA isn’t inspiring for the Trashers, but a 38-13 K/BB ratio is nice to see and more indicative of his talent. With four pitches that can miss bats and a delivery that suggests he’s going to throw strikes, Abel has a high-floor and a high-ceiling, and he could pitch near the top of a rotation someday if he reaches his full potential.

Scott Lauber of the Philadelphia Inquirer hears that the signing bonus will be worth $4.075 million, slightly above the recommended slot value of $3.88 million. Abel was selected 15th overall in the 2020 MLB Draft out of Jesuit High School in Oregon, where he was named the state’s 2020 Gatorade Player of the Year. The young 6-foot-5 right-hander sadly might be limited to instructional league work in his first pro season amid the COVID-19 pandemic. There was an outbreak just last week at the Phillies’ spring complex in Florida.