Luis

Severino

The A’s would seem to have overpaid for Severino, whose bounce-back season with the Mets came with a 101 ERA+ and a 21.2 percent strikeout rate that paled in comparison to what he did with the Yankees in his previous best years. Still, it isn’t going to be easy to get quality veterans to play in Sacramento, and he’s a pretty obvious upgrade for the rotation if he remains healthy. He’s probably not someone who should be drafted in shallow 10 or 12-team mixed leagues next spring, but he’ll probably remain a viable streaming option in deeper mixed leagues.

Severino bounced back in 2024, posting a 3.91 ERA and 161/60 K/BB over 182 innings with the Mets. The team made a qualifying offer to him of $21.05 million, but he declined it and bet on himself, which wound up being the right move as he cashes in on a three-year deal worth more per season than the qualifying offer would have been. For fantasy purposes, the move is certainly a downgrade for the 30-year-old. He is moving to a worse team context and will be pitching next year in a minor league ballpark in Sacramento that will be more friendly to hitters than Citi Field has been. As a result, Severino looks to be a risky bet in 2024 that could be limited to deeper fantasy leagues.

It’s now official. Nick Martinez was the lone recipient to accept a qualifying offer this offseason cycle, becoming just the 14th to do so since the system was implemented back in 2012. That leaves Juan Soto, Willy Adames, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman, Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, Teoscar Hernández, Christian Walker, Sean Manaea, Anthony Santander, Luis Severino and Pivetta officially heading to free agency. Their respective teams will receive draft pick compensation if they wind up signing elsewhere. No real surprises here besides Pivetta, who ESPN’s Jeff Passan indicated last week has at least a “three-year deal” waiting for him on the open market.

If Severino was to take the offer, he’d be paid $21.05 million for 2025. The right-hander instead will be looking for a multi-year deal that will likely pay him a similar amount per year, but on a long-term deal. Severino was good in 2024 with a 3.91 ERA and 161/60 K/BB over 182 innings with the Mets, so there should be a strong market.

We’ll see whether Severino decides to return to New York, or hit the open market in search of a multi-year commitment, after a bounce-back season with the Mets last year where he finished with a solid 3.91 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 161/60 K/BB ratio across 182 innings (31 starts). The fact that he stayed healthy and returned to missing bats is an encouraging sign for fantasy purposes and he’ll only be 31 years old by the time Opening Day rolls around. It’ll be interesting to see where he winds up, but it wouldn’t be shocking if he decided to stick around for another year with the Mets.

Both runs came in the second, which featured a bad call from Francisco Alvarez to throw to second on a tapper in front of the plate with a man on the first. He failed to get the out there, when he would have had an easy play at first. Severino might have gotten out of the inning anyway, but he deflected a comebacker that he could have turned into an out at home or that at least would have been an out at first had it gone through to the shortstop. Severino was effective otherwise, even though he walked four. The loss was his first in three postseason starts.

For the first two times through the lineup, Severino cruised. The third time was not so kind. After five scoreless frames, Severino gave up a single to Trea Turner, a two-run bomb to Bryce Harper, and a solo shot to Nick Castellanos to erase a 3-0 lead. There was more good than bad from the 30-year-old right-hander, but it’s a disappointing end to what was a very strong beginning for Severino. He could start Game 5, or be available out of the bullpen for that contest.

Severino allowed eight hits, walked two and struck out three. He was steady and hung around in the game long enough for the Mets’ offense to breakout with a five-run fifth inning. Severino would likely start again for the Mets should they advance to the Division series before heading into free agency this offseason.

Severino wasn’t needed in the second game today after the Mets clinched in the opener, leaving him 11-7 with a 3.91 ERA to finish the regular season. He’ll be matched up against Freddy Peralta on Tuesday.

The Mets haven’t decided on a Game 2 starter, but it seems likely it’ll be Luis Severino if New York needs to win the game. It’ll likely be a bullpen game for the Mets if Megill get the job done and New York clinches their postseason berth, as they’ll have nothing to play for in Game 2. The Diamondbacks need one of the two teams to sweep, but outside of spite, neither team will have anything to play for if the other gets a win in the first game.