This March Madness has been decidedly chalky, just the second time in men’s NCAA Tournament history that all four No. 1 seeds made it to the Final Four. Fittingly, the Final Four was played in San Antonio in 2008, the only other time this has happened.
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised. Duke, Houston, Florida and Auburn are four of the best teams in recent college basketball history. All four are among the highest-rated in offensive and defensive efficiency since at least 1996-97, when KenPom.com first began tracking such data. They are, in short, historically good. And they’ve been by far the four best teams in the sport all season long.
Here’s hoping we get three fantastic games from these four teams in San Antonio. And here’s how the national semifinals will be decided:
The keys to Auburn-Florida:
The Gators were arguably the nation’s hottest team coming into the NCAA Tournament, while the Tigers were easily one of the country’s best teams throughout the regular season. It’s elite vs. elite in this all-SEC showdown. When the two teams met back on Feb. 8 at Auburn, Florida came out victorious behind 19 points from Walter Clayton Jr. Clayton has been one of the biggest stars of March Madness, delivering big shots in the clutch over and over. He helped the Gators snatch victory from the jaws of defeat against Texas Tech with an 18-4 run to close out the Elite Eight, and he’ll be critical to Florida’s chances against one of the most complete and most experienced teams in the country.
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Auburn’s chances hinge on the health of Johni Broome, one of the two top contenders for National Player of the Year. Broome landed awkwardly in the second half of the Tigers’ Elite Eight game against Michigan State and briefly left the game before an emotional return to the court (and a back-breaking three-pointer). But Broome’s elbow remains a concern heading into the weekend, and he was held out of practice on both Tuesday and Wednesday to help get closer to 100 percent by tipoff on Saturday. Auburn has played without Broome this season, but it would be preferred not to against this Florida frontcourt.
The Tigers will also need to be their best defensively to have a shot in this game. That means avoiding foul trouble and halting those scoring runs we’re used to seeing from the Gators. When Auburn lost three of four games heading into Selection Sunday, it was because its defense became frustratingly porous. It’s been a lot better throughout the NCAA Tournament, led by Denver Jones on the perimeter and Broome and Dylan Cardwell inside. They’ll have their hands full with Clayton — the best point guard in the country — and a Florida team that believes it can and will win any game it plays.
Prediction: Florida 87, Auburn 82
The keys to Duke-Houston:
All of the Final Four teams are elite, but it’s possible that one is simply better than the rest: Duke. The Blue Devils appear to be the best and most talented team in the country, and they’ve looked that way all season long. Critics wondered if that was just because the ACC was down this year, and it turns out it has nothing to do with the level of competition. Duke is the only No. 1 seed that has not been tested yet this tournament. The Blue Devils’ ability to completely shut down the prolific Alabama offense was its biggest statement yet, and it’s why I’m not sure there’s a worthy challenger for this Duke team this year. Third-year coach Jon Scheyer has done a masterful job both as a roster-builder and as an in-game coach, and he’s positioned himself well to win his first national title as the head man. Oh, and Cooper Flagg — projected to be the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft — ain’t too bad, either.
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But Houston isn’t an easy team to blow out. The Cougars have not lost by more than five points all season — and three of their four losses came in overtime — so it’s possible that they can make the game ugly like they did with Tennessee in the Elite Eight. Ugly = stifling defense in Kelvin Sampson’s language, and it’s how Houston is comfortable playing and winning. They’ll need to make life difficult for Flagg, Kon Knueppel, Tyrese Proctor and co., though, in order to have a shot to win this game. Duke’s offense is the most efficient in the country, per KenPom.com.
The Blue Devils are a good offensive rebounding team and rarely turn the ball over, which means Houston will have to make the most of its own offensive possessions. The Cougars pack more of a punch on that side of the ball this year, as opposed to seasons past, which is important. They’ve been particularly lethal from beyond the arc, shooting nearly 40 percent (tied for best in Division I) and averaging nine made threes per NCAA Tournament game. Houston will need to stay hot from three to keep pace against this Duke offense and allow the nation’s best defense to come up with critical stops. Otherwise, the team with the most talent on the floor will be the team that walks off the court winners.
Prediction: Duke 74, Houston 68
