We’ve always heard about how the Kentucky Derby is the greatest, the fastest, the most amazing two minutes in sports. Words that perhaps aren’t used enough: dramatic and unpredictable. For every horse entering the stalls for Saturday’s feature race there will be hope and a game plan. The problem is that hope often dissipates, and game plans frequently fall apart. When you add in the variables of up to twenty horses, jockeys, and trainer strategies, that’s where the unpredictability factor kicks in.
Does every horse in the 150th Kentucky Derby have a chance to win? Well…in a technical sense they do, but that’s not telling the whole story. For example, does a horse who cost $2.3 million at auction have a better chance than a horse who cost $11,000? Probably, and we will see that scenario play out in this year’s race. Is a horse who has been measurably faster than the others guaranteed to win? Again, the answer is “probably,” but in this sport and on this day, there are no guarantees. We’ve all seen horses who are measurably slower run the race of their lives in the Derby and light up the tote board. Mine That Bird, anyone?
How to stream the 2024 Kentucky Derby on Peacock
The Top Two Contenders in the 2024 Kentucky Derby
Any look at the story lines in this race must begin with Fierceness, from the barn of Hall of Famer Todd Pletcher. He’s that horse who is measurably faster, and his final prep race in the Florida Derby was very fast and very impressive. The Daily Racing Form’s Beyer speed figures show him with a big edge over every horse in the field. The only question is how he will handle adversity. Getting bounced around coming from the gate, being forced wide, or running on a sloppy track have all played a part in his two career losses. His three wins, however, have been by margins averaging over 10 lengths. If he has a trouble-free trip and is forwardly placed, it will be very hard to beat this favorite. The big question mark is how he’ll run in this very large field. But in his favor, here are the obvious factors which say to me that Fierceness cannot be left off anyone’s betting tickets:
1. Trainer Todd Pletcher is the winningest trainer ever in North America, based on purse earnings. He’s a two-time Kentucky Derby winner.
2. Jockey John Velazquez is the winningest jockey ever in North America, based on purse earnings. He’s a three-time Kentucky Derby winner.
3. Fierceness has run faster than all his competitors in this race.
Also, from a betting standpoint, he might be of good value because he has lost twice. Many handicappers will shy away from betting a horse who has had bad-trip losses and other forms of adversity. I say that you might get a price around 3-1, and that’s a better price than you would get if he hadn’t had those losses.
Fierceness was bred by his owner (Mike Repole), so he has never been sold at auction. Sierra Leone, on the other hand, is that horse who sold for $2.3 million. He also presents a brilliant counterpoint to Fierceness in terms of running style. Unlike the forward running style of Fierceness, Sierra Leone will be far back in the early stages of the race, and then he will try to unleash an impressive closing rush. Hands down, he is the fastest of the late-closing horses in this race, with his win in the Blue Grass Stakes serving as evidence. Trained by Chad Brown, his races have gotten progressively faster. Keep in mind, however, that his fastest race in the Blue Grass was not even close to the race turned in by Fierceness in the Florida Derby. Also, a late closer in a huge field is likely to face traffic problems. In addition, Sierra Leone delayed the start of the Blue Grass by being reluctant to load into the gate. So, there are risks involved if you bet on either of these two horses. The question is whether they are worthwhile risks to take.
A Longshot to Root For
For the other extreme, take a look at West Saratoga, the horse who was bought for $11,000. It’s an emotional story, as his veteran trainer(Larry Demeritte) has never had a horse this good, and he’s been fighting cancer in recent years. West Saratoga’s owner is one of those owners who is likely to buy horses at the tail end of a sale, after all the big buyers have gone home with their six-figure and beyond purchases. Harry Veruchi says he likes to buy horses for between $10,000 and $25,000, and West Saratoga was at the bottom of that range. West Saratoga has piled up enough points in the prep races to qualify for the Kentucky Derby, but these are deeper waters. Logic says he can’t get it done, but that’s why they run the races, where the unexpected and unpredictable tend to happen once in a while.
RELATED: For trainer Larry Demeritte and West Saratoga, the rarest of paths to the 150th Kentucky Derby
Other Key Derby Contenders to Watch
There is a “second flight” of quality horses beyond Fierceness and Sierra Leone. One trainer who should always be considered in these big races is Brad Cox, and he has three horses in the field. Catching Freedom was an impressive late-closing winner of the Louisiana Derby. Cox is running him here off a 6-week layoff, but he’s been improving from race-to-race. With a clean trip he should be one of the top finishers. Cox also trains the lightly-raced Just A Touch, who was 2nd to Sierra Leone in the Blue Grass. He’ll be trying the Kentucky Derby in only his fourth career start, and he’s got a license to improve here.
Japanese horses have been an emerging force all over the globe, and Forever Young seems to be the best of the two horses from Japan in this year’s field. He’s trained by Yoshito Yahagi, who won two races in the 2021 Breeders’ Cup. He won the UAE Derby in his last start, and many observers say he’s the best Japanese horse ever sent over for the Kentucky Derby. On the other hand, horses out of the UAE Derby have not had a good record in this race, so buyer beware!
A mystery horse in here is Dornoch, a full brother to 2023 Kentucky Derby winner Mage. If not for a mediocre fourth place finish in the Blue Grass Stakes, he would be among the top choices. Trainer Danny Gargan feels he’s been training well, and a bounce-back performance would make him a player.
Two other horses that I feel can seriously impact this race are Just Steel and Honor Marie. Trained by 88-year-old training legend D. Wayne Lukas, Just Steel was an impressive second in the Arkansas Derby, running the fastest race of his career. Lukas is a four-time Kentucky Derby winner, and he knows the demands of this race. His jockey is Keith Asmussen, the son of trainer Steve Asmussen. The 25-year-old may not have the experience of some of the other riders, but his recent work has shown that he belongs here. Currently, against one of the top riding colonies in the sport, he is second in the jockey standings at Oaklawn Park. There is no need to worry about the jockey if you like this horse.
Honor Marie is trained by Whit Beckman, who is not a household name. The fact that he is a former assistant trainer to both Todd Pletcher and Chad Brown says to me that he knows what he’s doing. Honor Marie is another relatively inexpensive purchase, picked up for $40,000 at the same sale that West Saratoga comes out of. A closing second to Catching Freedom in the Louisiana Derby, his record also includes a win at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes last fall. This is a hard-trying horse who is always competitive.
Two Horses Who Might Be Overbet
The hardest part of wagering on the Kentucky Derby is the fact that you can’t bet every horse in the race. Tough decisions loom on who to not bet, and that’s why betting on a huge field like this is very different from betting on a race with a field of 10 or less. Some may question why I’m not a big fan of Santa Anita Derby winner Stronghold or Wood Memorial winner Resilience. In the case of Stronghold, he faced a relatively weak field in the Santa Anita Derby and struggled to win by a neck in moderate time. Resilience benefitted from a perfect stalking trip in the Wood Memorial against another relatively weak field. He’d have to improve significantly to be a major factor here.
Previewing the 150th Kentucky Derby: Odds and analysis for each horse
Betting the 2024 Kentucky Derby: Complex Strategies in A Huge Field
Finally, you might ask how I’m inclined to bet this race. My answer is taken from my personal history books, when I was correct in the 2000 Kentucky Derby. I felt that Fusaichi Pegasus, the Wood Memorial winner, would be dominant over the field in the Kentucky Derby. The second finisher, Red Bullet, was held out of the Derby for the Preakness, which he won, defeating Fusaichi Pegasus. My eye was caught by the late-finishing Aptitude, who was third in the Wood Memorial. I knew the added distance of the Derby would help him, and I felt he was a solid bet to finish second. So, I bet a $1 superfecta ticket with Fusaichi Pegasus on top of Aptitude, with seven horses boxed in the third and fourth holes. My $42 investment returned $1,635, and I felt like I was King of the World!
This year, I see a similar scenario. I’m likely to bet a superfecta ticket with Fierceness on top, Sierra Leone in the second hole, and a batch of horses boxed for third and fourth. At the same time, I’ll watch the odds board, in particular for how Fierceness is being bet. The higher his odds go, the more likely it is that I might look at exactas, trifectas and straight win or place bets. Betting the Kentucky Derby is an adventurous situation where no one is right every year. The fun of betting the race is like trying to figure out a massive jigsaw puzzle, and it’s a once a year puzzle that I always love to be a part of. Have fun at your Derby parties, and pick some winners!
How to Watch the 2024 Kentucky Derby
- Date: Saturday, May 4
- Time: Live coverage begins at 2:30 PM ET
- Where: Churchill Downs in Louisville, Kentucky
- TV Network: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock, NBCSports.com, NBC Sports app
