Ted

Potter, Jr.

TPJ made it look easy today from tee-to-green. He gained 1.2 strokes off-the-tee and another 2.8 strokes on approach. That helped set up seven birdie-or-better chances and he converted on five of them in addition to a 19'10" bomb at the 4th. With this being the regular-season finale, every shot matters for Potter as he entered the week just 181st in the FedExCup race. He would need to win or finish runner-up to have a chance at the Playoffs but even a top-10 finish would go along way toward improving his status for the 2021-22 campaign. This is his last year playing on the exemption from winning the 2018 Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

TPJ didn’t impress with his ball-striking today, splitting 8-of-14 fairways and landing just 10 greens. From there, he lapped the field in both of the short-game metrics. He gained 3.2 strokes around-the-green and another 1.4 strokes putting. Highlights included birdies from off the green at the 9th (19'11") and the 12th (37'9"). On the week he ranks 1st in the field in the around-the-green department, an area where he sits 119th on the season. Potter entered the week at 157th in the FedExCup race so a big finish over the weekend could go a long way towards securing some long-term TOUR status. His exemption for winning the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am ends this season.

The Floridian’s 63 is the low round in the clubhouse and matches Burns/R2 for the low lap of the week. It’s his best at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) in 13 rounds, previously 67 (x2), and one short of a career-low 9-under 62 in R3 (MPCC) at the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach, which he rode to the 54-hole co-lead and his most recent of two PGA TOUR victories. After opening with 67-73, the 37-year-old began T41 on 2-under, one inside the cut line and five shy of the overnight top 10. On nine (of 13) fairways and 11 greens in regulation, he squared two bogeys at holes 8 and 10, outflanked by an eagle-3 at 11 (from 9'3") and eight birdies at 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12, 14 and 15. Potter, Jr. posted a stellar 1.182 putts per GIR and 5.679 SG: Putting with just 20 total putts, converting four of his birdie tries from between 11 and 32 feet. At the three-quarter pole, he currently ranks 41st in SG: Tee-to-Green (1.572) and No. 1 in SGP (7.834). Regarding Sunday: “Try and hit a lot of fairways and if I can hit fairways, I feel like my iron play right now is good and I’m starting to putt the ball well so I’ll have a good chance if I can just find the fairway.”

This is the Ocala, Florida, native’s fifth Valspar with one prior payday, a T20 in 2014. That came three tries ago, and included a best at Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead) of 67 in R3, which he matched today. On nine (of 13) fairways and 12 greens in regulation, the 37-year-old lost 0.706 strokes around-the-green but gained 0.496 off-the-tee and 0.185 on approach. He squared a lone bogey-4 at hole 8 (failed sand save), camouflaged by an eagle-3 at 1 (from 17'11"), and three circles at 11, 14 and 18, two from between 12 and 27 feet. The Florida resident recorded 1.667 putts per GIR and 4.160 SG: Putting, ranked No. 3 in the latter, and was buoyed by two par-savers from between 10 and 12 feet. This is the second time this season in 16 events that he’s been in the top 10 after R1, joining a T6 at the WM Phoenix Open seven starts ago, where he eventually cratered to 64th (66-71-71-74). Potter, Jr.'s lone top 10 on the campaign is a T7 at the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open five starts ago (69-69-67-69).

TPJ had the scoring machine fired up all week as he accumulated 20 birdies (T8) and an eagle (T5) which easily erased an eight-pack of bogeys. Steady iron play was the name of the game as he pelted 53 greens on the week which is 17th-best in the field. This will be Potter’s first top 15 since last year’s Puerto Rico Open (T6). His last four top 20s have all come on coastal courses so gamers should keep that nugget in their back pocket when looking for future venues that may suit his style of play.

This is the 37-year-old’s sixth appearance with two previous cashes and one top 25, a T24 four tries ago in 2013 where he was T2 after 18 holes (64-69-68-70). He checked in this week just 1-for-8 on the season and off a T18 at last week’s Farmers on 5-under 283 (71-69-72-71). This is the Floridian’s first time in the top 10 after R1 since last season’s Sony Open 13 months ago, where he was T2 before finishing T7 (67-69-70-66). On seven (of 14) fairways and 13 greens in regulation, he lost strokes off-the-tee (-0.552) and on approach (-0.286), but gained 1.961 around-the-green and 3.241 on-the-green. Potter, Jr. squared a lone bogey-5 at 18 (watered tee ball), outpaced by six birdies at 13, 15, 17, 1, 4 and 8, three from between nine and 33 feet, with two of those from greater than 31 feet. He recorded 1.538 putts per GIR with 24 total putts.

TPJ enters the week with seven straight missed cuts. You have to go back 13 events to find anything better than a solo 66th. On the bright side, that finish was a T6 at the Puerto Rico Open so when he pops, he is not afraid of staying in contention, regardless of incoming form. A putting slump has been the main culprit for his current slump as he’s lost strokes putting in nine straight measured events. It’s a promising sign that his ball-striking has been above field average over the last three months because putting is usually the easiest “fix” on a one-week basis.

Now in his sixth full season on TOUR, the 36-year-old has missed more cuts (71) than he’s made (66). In 138 events, he owns just seven top 10s (5.0%), but two of those are wins. The Flordian’s first “W” came at The Greenbrier in his rookie campaign (16th career start), where he came from four back (solo 6th) with 6-under 64 before winning in extra time over Troy Kelly, this after a two-win season on the Korn Ferry Tour in 2011. His next came 68 starts later at the 2018 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am as a 300/1 pre-tourney outright, where he co-led after 54 holes following a still-career-low 9-under 62 (MPCC) in R3, and then bested four runners-up by three shots, including World No. 1 and playing competitor Dustin Johnson. Typical of his career, Potter, Jr. has cashed just three times this season in 12 events, but, two of the three are top 10s, including a best of T6 at the opposite-field Puerto Rico Open two starts ago.

This was the Floridian’s third PRO and first top 25, bettering a T29 on last visit in 2014. He improves to 3-for-11 on the season with two top 25s and two top 10s, joining a T7 at the Sony Open five starts ago. For the week, the 36-year-old carded rounds of 68-70-67-69 and totaled two eagles and 15 birdies against five bogeys. In the finale, he hit 11 (of 14) fairways and 11 greens in regulation, offsetting two bogey-5s at holes 4 and 10, with five circles at 1, 2, 5, 7 and 14. Potter, Jr. recorded 1.636 putts per GIR with 26 total putts, wrapping the week ranked No. 1 in Driving Accuracy at 85.71 percent (48/56) and T12 in GIR at 76.39 percent (55/72).