A common refrain among golf commentators, as Jordan Spieth flails his way from tee to green in a way that can most generously be described as entertaining, is that the former world No. 1 still has his miraculous short game to bail him out of tight spots.
And yes, Spieth has saved himself with around-the-green artistry in recent seasons. Last year, Spieth was 25th in strokes gained around the greens. In 2022, he was 21st. At various times over the past three years, Spieth’s putter has gone ice cold, his driver has gone haywire, and his iron play has been among the worst on the PGA Tour. But the short game has remained.
No more. After missing the cut at last week’s CJ Cup Byron Nelson event, Spieth is now 81st in strokes gained around the green. And over the past 60 days, things have gotten dire for the one-time around the green magician: Spieth ranks 165th out of 215 qualifying PGA Tour players in strokes gained ARG over that stretch. He has lost strokes around the green in five of his past six events. It is a major problem for a guy well outside the Top 100 in strokes gained on approach this season.
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It is tough to square Spieth’s imaginative play near the green with his bleak 2024 metrics. Spieth is ranked 162nd out of 215 golfers in scrambling percentage, or the rate a player successfully saves par after missing the green in regulation. He is 193rd in scrambling from the fairway and 85th in scrambling from the rough. It makes one wonder if Spieth’s years-long swing struggles have finally eroded his short game confidence. Relying so heavily on miraculous greenside par saves, it seems, has its limitations.
The Golf Channel’s Brandel Chamblee pointed out in February that Spieth’s swing has undergone radical changes since his legendary 2015 campaign, in which he won five times and netted over $22 million in tournament winnings. Those swing changes — taking the club back further outside and keeping the club face closed — has turned Spieth into what Chamblee has termed a “shut-face rotator.” Think David Duval or Dustin Johnson.
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The tweaks have certainly helped Spieth increase ball speed and distance. Averaging 299.4 yards off the tee this season, Spieth is the 24th longest player on tour, just eight yards shorter than the PGA’s longest driver, MJ Daffue.
“When you look at the swing, you think, ‘OK, it kinda looks the same, but it’s not,” Chamblee said. “Those little bitty differences have changed his DNA. … He was riding that bullet train to one of the best players of all time. He’s still a good player, but he’s nowhere near the same player he was in 2015.”
Below is a Data Golf visual of just how low Spieth’s game has sunk since 2017, his best statistical season on the PGA Tour. His approach and around the green game have collapsed.
Becoming a so-called shut-face rotator has done no favors for Spieth’s approach game in 2024. He has hit a meager 67 percent of greens in regulation so far this season, ranking 96th on tour. He is outside the Top 100 in proximity to the hole on approach shots. He is 128th in strokes gained on approach, behind such luminaries as Sami Valimaki and Bronson Burgoon.
Spieth, it seems, is rarely committed to an approach shot. He appears never to be locked in with what he wants to do with an iron in his hand. A fade or a draw? Who knows? Everything he does suggests a golfer with exceedingly little confidence in himself.
Spieth enters next week’s PGA Championship at 33-to-1, the 16th best odds in the field. While that seems fair, the idea of Spieth overcoming his wretched iron play and deteriorating around the green game to take down one of the strongest fields in pro golf is, at best, far flung. It would be something of an upset for Spieth to make the cut with his game in such a sad state.
