Is a BANG in order when you hit a single bullet outright, but they are only +360? After hitting Scottie Scheffler at the Memorial Tournament, I’m not asking for a friend but for myself. Honestly, I’m pretty happy with how last week went. I picked up outright win number five. I have a pending +595 parlay with the Boston Celtics to win the NBA Finals, and we hit Collin Morikawa to finish inside the top 10 at +130.
The best part about hitting bets last week is that we have some funds to go deeper for the US Open this week.
When a major event like the US Open rolls around, it’s a challenge to contain my betting enthusiasm. We’re only blessed with four such opportunities a year when we can amp up our bets and justify them with the event’s significance.
I don’t know about you, but I’m excited about this week’s US Open. It’s being played at the iconic Pinehurst Resort on Pinehurst No. 2. Pinehurst has been the home of the US Men’s and Women’s Amateurs, the PGA Championship, the Ryder Cup, and both the Men’s and Women’s US Opens.
This Donald Ross masterpiece will look different this year compared to others. The Bermudagrass rough has been replaced by sandy waste areas with wispy grass mounds scattered inside them.
The sandy areas mean there’s no rough, and it’s luck of the draw if golfers miss the fairways and are impeded by any of the obstructing grass mounds.
It’s nearly impossible to feel comfortable betting against Scheffler with the form he’s in. He’s won five times in his last eight starts. In two of the three where he didn’t win, he finished second, and in the third, he finished eighth. The dude is playing out of this world.
Had I not had futures bets on Wyndham Clark and Bryson DeChambeau, I would be back on the Scheffler train again this week. However, given his +300, it’s too short to have more than one golfer on my card.
That’s fine with me, though. I will actively seek golfers who can beat Scheffler this week.
Key Metrics to Success:
- Driving Distance
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Fairways Gained
- 3-Putt Avoid
- Bogey Avoid
- Scrambling
- Sand Saves
As you notice, in this week’s key metrics, I used fewer strokes gained metrics than my typical metrics. With the turtle-back greens and lack of round, I wanted exact numbers. Either you do, or you don’t. It could be a flawed model, but I think this model should be more fruitful than my usual metrics.
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US Open Best Bets:
Collin Morikawa to win +1600 0.5un | Morikawa Top 20 -120
Whenever it comes down to trusting Morikawa, I feel like Penelope from Bridgerton, saying “Collin” with such hope in a sweet little English accent but often leaving disappointed because my expectations are unmet.
Dramatic? Maybe a little. However, there are countless times when Morikawa wants to be the Belle of the Ball, but one or two shortcomings leave him off the dance floor entirely.
Does my betting on him to win the US Open this week mean I trust him more? Absolutely not. However, given his incredible form, he’s likely to win a tournament again sooner than later. The same sentiment I made about Xander Schaffuele ahead of the Wells Fargo Championship, and Schaffuele went on to win the PGA Championship a week later.
Morikawa has finished inside the top five in three straight events and inside the top 20 in six straight events. His game is in a great spot right now.
At Pinehurst, hitting fairways and greens is the likely pathway to victory. With the lack of rough and the turtle back greens, it’s not as straightforward as it sounds on paper. However, Morikawa is first in fairways gained and 12th GIR.
Bogeys will happen. Often, golfers will find themselves trying to avoid bogey more than aiming for birdie. Morikawa is fifth in bogey avoidance and three-putt avoidance.
I’m firing away at Morikawa in hopes of a storybook ending.
Other US Open Bets:
- Scottie Scheffler Leader After Round 1 (-110)
- Ludvig Aberg top Swede (-140)
- Bryson DeChambeau to win +5000, Wyndham Clark to win +4500 (futures)
