The betting markets have tabbed Scottie Scheffler as the favorite to lift his first claret jug this Sunday at Royal Troon. It’s a familiar position for Scheffler, a six-time winner this year who has entered every major championship as the favorite.
But should he really be the favorite entering this Open Championship?
Those who say yes will point to the numbers, including the fact that Scheffler leads the PGA Tour in strokes gained approach and greens in regulation while ranking second in total driving and proximity to the hole – all solid indicators for success at this week’s stop on the Open rota.
But those who side with the nos will argue that it’s not always simply what the numbers say. We haven’t seen Scheffler since the Travelers Championship (he won that one, too, by the way) and that last time we saw him at a major he was tying for 41st at Pinehurst No. 2 – and he was somewhat outspoken about not liking the luck element of the Donald Ross gem; that doesn’t go away at Troon, where pot bunkers, gorse and other fun stuff lurk, and where we could see some weather (30-35 mph gusts are already forecasted for Thursday’s opening round).
And speaking of the U.S. Open, Rory McIlroy is coming off yet another heartbreaker, though he bounced back quickly with a T-4 at the Genesis Scottish Open, and McIlroy’s driving ability is always going to be an advantage at a course like Troon, where guys such as Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Ludvig Åberg all set up well and have at least some decent momentum.
A couple bits of history that do go in Scheffler’s favor: Royal Troon’s list of champions (six of the past seven winners here have been American) and low-scoring propensity (each of its last four championships have produced a winning score of double-digits under par, including Henrik Stenson’s 20-under performance in 2016; Scheffler leads the Tour in birdie average by over a half-birdie per round).
So, with all that said, is Scheffler my favorite this week?
Let’s find out – but only after I rank every players in the 158-man field (now 157 after Sebastian Soderberg’s WD), plus provide analysis on the top 70 of this ranking:
Nos. 141-158
158. Todd Hamilton
157. John Daly
156. Jack McDonald
155. Elvis Smylie
154. Denwit Boriboonsub
153. Darren Clarke
152. Jasper Stubbs (a)
151. Charlie Lindh
150. Aguri Iwasaki
149. Altin van der Merwe (a)
148. Justin Leonard
147. Sam Hutsby
146. Jaime Montojo (a)
145. Jeung-Hun Wang
144. Luis Masaveu (a)
143. Liam Nolan (a)
142. Darren Fichardt
141. Alex Cejka
Nos. 131-140
140. Matthew Dodd-Berry (a)
139. Michael Hendry
138. Masahiro Kawamura
137. Kazuma Kobori
136. Ryosuke Kinoshita
135. Gun-Taek Koh
134. Phil Mickelson
133. Sam Horsfield
132. Padraig Harrington
131. Andy Ogletree
Nos. 121-130
130. Tommy Morrison (a)
129. Mason Andersen
128. Marcel Siem
127. Minkyu Kim
126. Vincent Norrman
125. Daniel Hillier
124. Dominic Clemons (a)
123. Ernie Els
122. Jacob Skov Olesen (a)
121. Jorge Campillo
Nos. 111-120
120. Alexander Bjork
119. Daniel Brown
118. Santiago de la Fuente (a)
117. Ryan Van Velzen
116. Henrik Stenson
115. Tiger Woods
114. Younghan Song
113. Nacho Elvira
112. Gary Woodland
111. Stewart Cink
Nos. 101-110
110. Dan Bradbury
109. Matthew Southgate
108. Angel Hidalgo
107. John Catlin
106. Sean Crocker
105. Yannik Paul
104. Thorbjorn Olesen
103. Jesper Svensson
102. Matt Wallace
101. Yuto Katsuragawa
Nos. 91-100
100. Rikuya Hoshino
99. Joost Luiten
98. Nick Taylor
97. Joe Dean
96. Shubhankar Sharma
95. Francesco Molinari
94. Calum Scott (a)
93. Zach Johnson
92. Romain Langasque
91. Rickie Fowler
Nos. 81-90
90. Alex Noren
89. Mackenzie Hughes
88. Richard Mansell
87. Brendon Todd
86. Thriston Lawrence
85. Denny McCarthy
84. C.T. Pan
83. Adam Schenk
82. Eric Cole
81. Sami Valimaki
Nos. 71-80
80. Chris Kirk
79. Abraham Ancer
78. Justin Rose
77. Guido Migliozzi
76. David Puig
75. Dustin Johnson
74. Ryo Hisatsune
73. Ryan Fox
72. Gordon Sargent (a)
71. Adrian Meronk
Nos. 61-70
70. Matteo Manassero
69. Keita Nakajima
68. Nicolai Hojgaard
67. Sebastian Soderberg (withdrew on Wednesday; was not replaced due to field size being over 156)
66. Emiliano Grillo
65. Taylor Moore
64. Matthew Jordan
63. Ewen Ferguson
62. Louis Oosthuizen
61. Ben Griffin
Manassero’s T-15 at the Scottish was his fifth top-15 in seven starts, though I’m worried about his driving (well outside the top 100 on DPWT in total driving). … Nakajima did miss the Scottish cut, but drives it well and was sixth just a few weeks ago at the European Open. … Hojgaard has no top-20s since the Masters, though maybe his iron play can carry him. … Soderberg is a flusher with four top-3s since late March, though he hasn’t played since early June because of a back injury. If healthy, he’s top 40. ... Grillo has a T-12 and T-6 in his past three Opens. … Moore is above average off the tee and on approach with a reliable putter. Four MCs in his last six, though. … Jordan had a special week last year Royal Liverpool, and he’s coming off a T-26 in Scotland. … Ferguson earned a home Open start thanks to his win at the BMW International Open, which bumped him high enough in the Race to Dubai to qualify. Top 15 in driving accuracy and strokes gained approach on the DPWT. ... Oosthuizen is coming off a T-4 at Valderrama and has finished in the 20s in three of his past five Opens. … Griffin has been trending after switching to Maxfli ball in Houston, and his T-39 at Scottish is more indicative of his ability to play in the wind. Typically a great lag putter and the iron game is finally coming around.
Nos. 51-60
60. Adam Hadwin
59. Rasmus Hojgaard
58. Keegan Bradley
57. J.T. Poston
56. Jordan Smith
55. Max Homa
54. Christiaan Bezuidenhout
53. Stephan Jaeger
52. Tom Hoge
51. Laurie Canter
Hadwin’s T-34 at the Scottish was solid, but the ball-striking, especially off the tee, can be a concern at a place like Troon. … When picking a Hojgaard twin, go with Rasmus, who has been T-21 or better in three straight starts. … Bradley hasn’t missed a cut since Valspar, though his high ball flight and four straight Open MCs isn’t promising. … Poston has no top-10s since Harbour Town, but he’s been solid with four finishes of T-32 or better in his last five, and his combo of driving accuracy and putting is attractive here. … Smith could be low Jordan, especially his he keeps driving it well (top 10 in strokes gained off the tee on the DPWT). … Homa is barely inside the top 150 in total driving on Tour and has just one top-10 since his T-3 at the Masters. … Bezuidenhout’s a great scrambler and is top 40 in strokes gained approach, but I worry about his driving (outside top 150 in total driving on Tour). … Jaeger hasn’t played since his MC in Detroit, but he had four top-25s in seven starts before that and is around the top 25 in total driving. … Ball-striking wise, Hoge should be much higher. He’s gone 0 for 2 in Opens, though, and just missed the Scottish cut. … Canter is sixth on the DPWT in strokes gained off the tee and top 20 in approach, and he’s coming off a T-17 at Royal Liverpool.
Nos. 41-50
50. Billy Horschel
49. Harris English
48. Jason Day
47. Maverick McNealy
46. Austin Eckroat
45. Matthieu Pavon
44. Cameron Smith
43. Lucas Glover
42. Will Zalatoris
41. Dean Burmester
Horschel missed the Scottish cut, his first MC since Valero, as his ball-striking has started to fade slightly. But he’s had a bit of success on links (T-21 at St. Andrews) and is one of the more accurate drivers on Tour. … No top-10s since Genesis and not a great Open track record, but English is nearly top 20 in total driving and closed in 65 to finish T-34 in Scotland. … Day has been so-so of late, mostly because of approach play, though T-2 last year at Royal Liverpool and it’s always nice to drive and putt it well at these Opens. … McNealy’s Deere missed cut halted some good momentum that included a T-7 in Canada. But he’s top 40 in total driving, hits it low off the tee and is a good lag putter. … Maybe one of those guys who should be ranked higher, Eckroat is top 20 in total driving and strokes gained approach. He did miss the Scottish cut in his first taste of links(ish) as a pro. … Yes, Pavon was just fifth at the U.S. Open, but he also missed the Scottish cut and has been so up and down of late. … Smith ranked this low?! The 2021 Open champ is last among the LIV guys here in total driving. But perhaps his T-6 at Valderrama is a sign this ranking is dead wrong. … Glover hasn’t played an Open in a few years, though he was T-20 at Portrush. He has been masterful at hitting his irons close (third in proximity) and can find fairways with the best of them. … Zalatoris hasn’t played since withdrawing from Detroit because of his back. He returned at the Scottish and missed the cut, and he didn’t drive it well at all. But that could be rust. This ranking seems about right considering the question marks. … Burmester cooled off after a strong first round at Valderrama. If he can find fairways, he’ll be solid here.
Nos. 31-40
40. Robert MacIntyre
39. Matt Fitzpatrick
38. Russell Henley
37. Kurt Kitayama
36. Sepp Straka
35. Victor Perez
34. Patrick Cantlay
33. Byeong Hun An
32. Tom McKibbin
31. Sam Burns
The Scottish champ, MacIntyre vowed to spend the early week in celebration. When he makes it to the first tee, he’s still barely in the top 100 in total driving, though he was top 10 in strokes off the tee and approach last time out. … Fitzpatrick again lost strokes off the tee and on approach in Scotland, though he’s still going to find a ton of fairways and he’s not missed an Open cut in his last four tries. … The Open struggles have got to end at some point for Henley, who has five MCs in nine career starts. Throw out a bad putting week at Travelers and Henley has six finishes of T-27 or better in seven events, including a dazzling T-7 at Pinehurst. … T-60 last year was Kitayama’s best Open finish, though I’m going to probably lean a little more than most on the fact that he hasn’t lost strokes off the tee since Memphis last year. … Straka exited the Scottish early, though he should get back to hitting it on a line and has some confidence still with a T-2 last year at Royal Liverpool. … Perez disappointed at the U.S. Open after a third in Canada and T-12 at Memorial, but the T-10 at the Scottish was promising. Driver hasn’t been the issue, and he’s fifth on Tour in three-putt avoidance from outside 25 feet. … Cantlay is coming off a T-5 at Travelers and T-3 at the U.S. Open, and he’s been solid at recent Opens, though I’m still not totally sold the ball-striking will stand up enough to contend. On the flip side, he’s probably a lock for a top 35, as he’s done that in eight of his last nine majors. … An backed up Friday to miss the Scottish cut, but I like his length and ability to drive it well. Plus, he’s been T-32 or better in three straight Opens. … I almost put McKibbin, the 21-year-old from Holywood higher, as he’s fourth on the DPWT in strokes gained off the tee, nearly top 10 in driving accuracy and top 30 in strokes gained approach. He was T-41 in his major debut at last month’s U.S. Open. … Loved the T-9 at Pinehurst out of Burns, though despite his elite driving, he’s got to prove it first across the pond (nothing better than T-42 at an Open).
Nos. 21-30
30. Hideki Matsuyama
29. Aaron Rai
28. Brian Harman
27. Jordan Spieth
26. Joaquin Niemann
25. Adam Scott
24. Tom Kim
23. Sahith Theegala
22. Justin Thomas
21. Brooks Koepka
A Scottish MC ended Matsuyama’s nice run (T-8 at Memorial, sixth at U.S. Open, T-23 at Travelers), and though it’s just one event, keep in mind he’s well outside the top 100 in total driving. … Rai was among the last men in thanks to his T-4 at the Scottish, and he’s got the chops to outperform this ranking. Five straight top-20s and some stellar ball-striking. … The reigning Champion Golfer of the Year, Harman, enters his title defense having finished T-26 or better in six of his last eight starts, including a T-21 at the Scottish. … I’m worried about Spieth’s wrist, though for as unpredictable as he is, he is sixth in total driving and loves this championship having not finished worse than T-23 in his past five appearances. … Third among the LIV guys in total driving, Niemann was T-6 at LIV Andalucia to push his top-10 total to double digits this year. Just wish his Open record was better (best finish: T-53). … Not only has Scott made 10 of 11 cuts, but he was second at the Scottish and gained over four shots off the tee. … Runner-up at Travelers and T-15 at Scottish bolster a strong ball-striker in Kim, who also was T-2 last year at Royal Liverpool. … Theegala has not yet found his groove at The Open, but he has made seven of his last eight major cuts and loved what I saw during his T-4 at Scottish, especially with the putter. … Thomas should absolutely have more than just a T-11 to his Open resume, but he doesn’t. A T-62 at the Scottish doesn’t help matters, either. That said, he’s still eighth in strokes gained approach and is showing flashes of how he drove it to start the year. … Something is off with Koepka right now. He was T-27 on LIV on Sunday and hasn’t posted a major top-25 this year. He also has gone MC, T-64 in his last two Opens. One saving grace, though, is he’s still driving it well.
Nos. 11-20
20. Wyndham Clark
19. Min Woo Lee
18. Sungjae Im
17. Akshay Bhatia
16. Davis Thompson
15. Si Woo Kim
14. Tyrrell Hatton
13. Jon Rahm
12. Bryson DeChambeau
11. Tommy Fleetwood
Clark will be overlooked based on his major performance this year (T-56 at U.S. Open followed MCs at Masters, PGA), but he’s still top 10 strokes gained off the tee, was T-33 at last year’s Open and shot 62 Sunday to finish T-10 in Scotland. … Sunday was ugly (75), but I still believe in Min Woo and his stinger. He’s third in total driving and leads the Tour in carry distance, which either means he’s carrying bunkers downwind or able to still muscle a driving iron out there under the gusts. … Im is rolling with a T-4 in Scotland following four showings of T-12 or better in a five-start stretch. Driving it well. T-20 at last year’s Open his only made cut in last six major starts. He’s back … Bhatia has been trending hard since the Memorial, most recently sharing second in Detroit. He also was T-16 at Pinehurst for his first major top-20. Will be his first Open, but top 25 in total driving and stroke gained approach will help mitigate that inexperience. … Thompson was T-46 at the Scottish after winning the Deere, though you have got to love the bookend 65s. Driver is starting to get really good, and he led Scottish field in strokes gained around the green. Keep riding the wave. … Si Woo, my majors go-to, has posted T-32 or better in 10 of his last 12 starts. Top 25 in strokes gained off the tee, top 15 on approach, and he was T-15 at St. Andrews two years ago. … Seven times in his past 10 major starts has Hatton finished T-27 or better. He ended up one shot out of a playoff Sunday at Valderrama, too. … The foot thing seems corrected, though Rahm managed just a T-10 at LIV Andalucia. There’s mounting pressure on Rahm to get back on the major saddle, too. Good thing is he’s still elite off the tee; he just needs to get his swagger back in these major tournaments. … For as great as DeChambeau has been, this hasn’t been his best event. In six starts, he’s got a T-8 at St. Andrews and nothing else inside the top 30. He’ll still easily flirt with a top-10 because he’s clearly at the top of his game right now. … I thought it would be last week, though Fleetwood cooled off a bit to finish T-34 at the Scottish. That snapped his streak of T-26 or better at six starts. Top 10 in total driving; I like him to start a new streak here.
Nos. 1-10
10. Cameron Young
9. Corey Conners
8. Shane Lowry
7. Tony Finau
6. Xander Schauffele
5. Ludvig Aberg
4. Viktor Hovland
3. Scottie Scheffler
2. Collin Morikawa
1. Rory McIlroy
Young followed his runner-up at St. Andrews with a T-8 at Royal Liverpool. Top 20 in total driving, so it’s not all just distance, and he’s trending (T-9 at Travelers, T-6 at Rocket Mortgage). … Last year at Royal Liverpool, Conners lost about a half-stroke per round on approach; he’s not been negative since. Considering he’s third in strokes gained approach entering this week – and his T-10 at the Scottish was his third top-10 in his last five starts – Conners could very well notch his first career Open top-10. … We’ve not seen Lowry since the Travelers (T-9), he missed the cut in his last Open, but it’s about time for the 2019 Open champ to return to his form in this championship (he was T-12 two years ago at St. Andrews as well). He’s top 12 in total driving and top 10 in strokes gained approach. The perfect top-10 sleeper in the mold of Russ Henley at Pinehurst (T-7) or Alex Noren at Valhalla (T-12; just missed). … Finau’s missed cut last year at Royal Liverpool killed some nice Open momentum (T-9, third, T-15, T-28), but he’s fourth in strokes gained approach and has turned in three straight positive putting weeks (all top-8 finishes, too). The driver has been iffy, though if Big Tone is rolling in putts, watch out. … Schauffele is the Tour’s leader in three-putt avoidance outside of 25 feet. Add that to his ball-striking ability and the fact that he hasn’t finished outside the top 25 since Pebble and Schauffele probably should be top 3 here. But he didn’t drive it great at the Scottish, and his best Open finish since his T-2 at Carnoustie is T-15. … The closing 73 for Åberg at the Scottish adds to some disappointing final rounds for the young Swede of late, none more crushing than his 73 Sunday at Pinehurst. That trend is a bit concerning, as is the negative strokes gained off the tee in both weekend rounds at the Renaissance Club, but trust the body of work (seven top-10s; top 5 in total driving and ball-striking). … Hovland may have just one top-10 this year (third at PGA), but he’s been flushing it lately and he’s by far the best lag putter of the elite players. A strong Open record (T-13 or better in three starts) adds to confidence. … It’s hard not to put Scheffler at No. 1, a position he’s been in for these rankings for each of the year’s first three majors. He’s the best tee-to-green player in the world by far and he’s been T-23 or better in three career Open starts, but he also hasn’t played since winning the Travelers, and perhaps the luck factor of this championship (much like Pinehurst and its native areas) will mess with the usually impenetrable Scheffler again. … Morikawa lost strokes approach Sunday at Scottish, just the third time that’s happened in a round since the start of the PGA. He’s been ultra-consistent (four top-4s in last six starts and no finishes outside top 25 since before the Masters) and he’s going to find fairways, so if the iron play continues trending upward like it has been, a second Claret Jug is in the cards. … McIlroy’s tie for fourth at Scottish proves his U.S. Open heartbreak is in the rearview, so why not pick the Tour’s leader in total driving who ranks only behind Spieth in adjusted strokes gained at The Open among players in the field with more than 12 career rounds played.
