ATLANTA – The game within the game at this week’s Tour Championship, a $25 million handicapped race for the season’s best and brightest, depends on a recency bias.
Despite a mountain of evidence to the contrary, the PGA Tour’s sweltering finale doubles as a 72-hole Presidents Cup qualifier with spots at next month’s matches going to the top 6 eligible players who are not otherwise exempt.
That, of course, is ridiculous.
The U.S. Presidents Cup team’s qualifying process stretches 20 months and is a weighted version of the FedExCup points list, which means for a player like Justin Thomas, that spans 38 events beginning at last year’s Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Jim Furyk, this year’s U.S. captain, explained last week that his selection process, which concludes on Tuesday when he announces his six captain’s picks, is a dizzying mix of art and science.
“You weigh it all. I’m not an analytics guy in my own game — when I stand on the 18th tee to get the ball in play I know if I’m playing well, and if I’m scared, I’m probably not hitting the ball well,” Furyk said. “I understand the analytics side of it, but I understand there’s a personality side to it. There’s also guts and folks who are built for the moment.”
Players have had more than a year and half to stockpile points and impress the captain, but human nature lives in the here and now and for those who are vying for one of those captain’s picks there’s no better place to prove you’re “built for the moment” than East Lake with your back against the wall.
“A little bit,” Thomas, who shot 5-under 66 on Thursday, said when asked if this week felt like a Presidents Cup audition. “I guess I would answer that, I don’t feel like I am [auditioning] for me, but if I was [Furyk], I would say I am, if that makes sense.
“With how many people have an opportunity, I think he’s definitely looking at guys that are potential picks and how they’re playing. But most importantly, I am here and I know that some guys aren’t.”
There are nine players at East Lake, from Sam Burns at seventh on the U.S. points list to Thomas at 19th, who have one final chance to impress the captain with a big finish, and it’s worth noting that of those nine Thomas (66) posted the best score on Day 1.
Recent form, past cup experience and the dynamics of the U.S. team room will also factor into Furyk’s decision. And a rational person would acknowledge, after a 20-month qualifying process, simply earning a spot at the Tour Championship isn’t enough.
But there’s rarely anything rational about captain’s picks.
For all the talk of advanced analytics and personality profiles, the decision still comes down to emotion more times than not — is this player a good fit for this team?
It’s why the pressure to pull off some sort of 11th-hour statement performance is always in the back of even the most rational minds.
Billy Horschel has been in this position more than he’d like to admit and although he said he plays his best golf when he keeps the outside distractions, like what may or may not impress a captain, outside, he also admits it has taken 15 years of trial and error to arrive at that epiphany.
“The less information I focus on, the better I do,” said Horschel (73), who was the only player to shoot over par in Round 2. “Now, I get in little ruts where things start going well and I start focusing on other things and you start going down the other path that you don’t want to go down.”
For Keegan Bradley, who jumped to 10th on the U.S. points list following his victory last week at the BMW Championship, the intensity of this decisive week is compounded by his status as one of Furyk’s vice captains. A “playing vice captain” is not the most outlandish idea — Tiger Woods seemed to perform just fine with both roles as an actual playing captain at the 2019 Presidents Cup — but it does add a layer of complexity to the picks.
“I think as it comes to this week, with the different format and stuff like that, I think it shouldn’t come down to one week that you decide whether a person is going to play a month later,” said Bradley, who opened in 69. “But there’s part of me that feels terrible I put [Furyk] in this position. But I want to be as up front with him and honest with him, and he’s been great.”
How much stock Furyk, who spent time at East Lake this week meeting with potential picks, puts into an East Lake performance remains to be seen, but having 72 — now 54 — more holes to impress the captain is better than the alternative.
“I was in that spot last year where there were guys that were trying to get picked [for the U.S. Ryder Cup team] and I wasn’t even in the playoffs,” Thomas said. “I’m definitely more at ease now than I was last year about getting picked. If I play the golf that I know I should it’ll take care of itself.”