We’re two weeks from Augusta, which means it’s time for the PGA Tour’s best to tune up in pursuit of a green jacket: In the field at the Texas Children’s Houston Open are Scottie Scheffler (one of last year’s runners-up to Stephan Jaeger) and Rory McIlroy, whose last Tour start was his Players Championship win.
A two-week swing through the Lonestar State will begin at Memorial Park Golf Course in Houston with $9.5 million in total at stake.
Looking for a little something yourself? NBCSports.com betting expert Brad Thomas has a couple of wagers to consider:
Stephan Jaeger, first-round leader: +6000
While the first-round leader market requires a lot of luck, I have been fortunate enough to cash four of the last five first-round leaders, while having both Jaeger and Jacob Bridgeman last week. My formula is nothing special. I look for a few things: Does a player have early-round spike rates? Do they have a favorable tee time (time/weather)? Do they have great course history? Jaeger checks a few of those boxes. His first- and second-round spikes have been great this season. He has gained at least 3.5 strokes in the first round in four consecutive tournaments. Jaeger is also the defending champion. While he didn’t have an impressive first round last year, he did turn it around and gain 5.4 strokes in the second round. At +6000 for a player who is playing with confidence, has started events well recently, and is the defending champion, he becomes a must-play.
Min Woo Lee, win: +3500
Lee is an interesting player this week. Could he have a similar fate to Jaeger, picking up his first PGA Tour win at the Houston Open? He has a very good chance. When modeling for this tournament, I wanted to find players who excelled tee-to-green and could get hot with their putters. Driving prowess wasn’t mandatory, but it was a nice benefit to have. Lee fits those criteria to a tee. He excels around the green and is consistently inside the top 10 in strokes gained: putting over the last 36 rounds. He’s lethal off the tee. He was impressive during the Florida swing, finishing T-11 at the Cognizant Classic, missing the cut at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and finishing T-20 at The Players. His Players result might be the most impressive as he contended despite losing 1.3 strokes off the tee. With only four holes that have water in play this week, missing the fairway should not be nearly as penal. He can let it rip and unleash one of his best weapons without fear.
Texas Children’s Houston Open odds (as of Tuesday afternoon, courtesy DraftKings):
- Scottie Scheffler: +350
- Rory McIlroy: +700
- Aaron Rai: +2800
- Wyndham Clark: +3000
- J.J. Spaun: +3000
- Tony Finau: +3000
- Min Woo Lee: +3500
- Michael Kim: +3500
- Jason Day: +3500
- Davis Thompson: +3500
- Sungjae Im: +3500
- Taylor Pendrith: +4000
- Si Woo Kim: +4000
- Jacob Bridgeman: +4500
- Stephan Jaeger: +4500
- Maverick McNealy: +5000
- Sahith Theegala: +5000
