On deck this week, we have the Shriners Children’s Open. Of course, I was close with Ludvig Aberg last week, not no cigar. For just getting my feet wet to start the season, I was excited that the odds-on favorite went to battle and held it down for all of us chalk donkeys who backed him.
I’m still somewhat surprised Luke List went on to gain a million strokes putting in his route to victory. But that’s just the way the cookie crumbles sometimes.
Like many events in the fall swing, Shriners will consistently be called a birdie fest. TPC Summerlin in Las Vegas is a straightforward par 71, 7200-yard course that doesn’t have overly penal rough and has seen golfers go low.
Here are the key metrics seen correlated to success:
Key Metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- SG: Ball Striking
- SG: Putting
- Driving Distance
- Bogey Avoid
- Birdie or Better Gained
Picks to Win the 2023 Shriners Children’s Open:
Tom Kim +1200
In building out my betting card for the week, I made a few models without pricing attached. I assumed we’d get a gross number on Tom Kim, and boy, was I right. However, in looking at the models, he pops, and him being the favorite is justified.
The 2022 winner might not have a better course fit than TPC Summerlin. The par 7,255 course sets up well for Kim. The thinner air allows for his relative lack of distance not to be an issue. He hits a ton of fairways, which sets him up to have a lot of looks at birdie putts.
Shriners sets up to play pretty simple and comes with a lot of low scores. Kim’s 62 in round 3 set him up for a 3-stroke victory come Sunday. With the new PGA Tour schedule and LIV taking a few big names with them, the field is considerably weaker, making Kim’s price much shorter. I’m still putting a unit on him to win this week, hoping he goes low and back-to-back.
Frankly, you likely can’t go wrong if you bet on Kim or Aberg. Both are worthy favorites. I’m siding with the guy who has had better success here and higher win equity.
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JT Poston +3000 – 0.5 units
I think there’s a golden rule that states if you’re betting on a birdie fest, then backing JT Poston is mandatory. Over the last 36 rounds, Poston is seventh in Birdie or Better Gained and sixth in Bogey Avoidance. Both are mainly due to his amazing skill with the flat stick.
On my primary model, Poston was fifth. However, he moved up third behind Kim and Tom Hoge when I built out my easy-course birdie fest model. His best finish here was last season when he finished T20. With his first start of the season, I’m excited to see if he comes out firing on all cylinders.
Adam Schenk +3000 – 0.5 units
Betting on Adam Schenk so far has led me to nothing but disappointment. However, I think we can finally see him turning a corner. He’s still without a win after 181 events, but last season was solid for the Purdue product. Last season, he finished inside the top 25 11 times and recorded two runner-up finishes.
At this event last season, he finished T12 and T3 the season prior. In my base model, which looks at the key metrics listed above with the heaviest weight on approach play and ball striking, Schenk is listed first. On the easy course model, he’s still tied for sixth.
He jumps off the chart, ranking inside the top 10 in SG: BS, SG: APP, and SG: P. Obviously, the first two are correlated. He’s 16th in BoB Gained and 20th in Bogey Avoidance.
When I went to the Wisconsin at Purdue football game this season, and they honored Schenk on the field, I strongly felt I’d be betting on him a lot this season. I’m excited to see that we are starting early at a price I don’t absolutely hate.
Tom Hoge +3500 – 0.5 units
Whenever I fire away at a Hoge outright ticket, I reminisce about being on him for his first-ever PGA Tour win. That was a magical week; now, let’s see if we can replicate the feeling by landing on him to win his second PGA Tour event this week.
On my base model, Hoge wasn’t rated all that highly. It was a model that heavily focused on ball striking with a bit of influence on distance. It didn’t factor in easy courses or shorter courses. Yet, when I updated the settings to focus on easy courses, Hoge flashed all the way up to second.
He’s a great course fit this week and should be able to replicate the success he had here (T4) last season. His first-round low score of 63 last week should be enough for people to have confidence in him as a possible contender this week.
Long Shots to Consider:
- SH Kim +8000
- Matthew NeSmith +7500
- Ben Griffin +6000
