Last week at the John Deere Classic brought a new meaning to the phrase “Birdiefest.” Davis Thompson won in a record-setting performance, finishing the tournament 28-under par. There were 16 golfers at 20-under or better. Sure, the soft conditions from the rain helped a lot, but this course is destroyed by the competitors year in and year out.
Luckily, we were on Thompson to win at +2200, giving us our seventh outright win of the season!
We now turn our attention to the Scottish Open, a co-sanctioned event between the PGA and DP World Tour.
Scottie Scheffler is not playing this week, but the field is still stacked.
Here are the key metrics I used when building my model at the Renaissance Club.
Key Metrics:
- Driving Distance
- Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
- SG: Approach
- SG: Around the Green
- SG: Putting
- SG: Par 5
- SG: Par 3
- Birdie or Better Gained
- 3-Putt Avoidance
Scottish Open Winner
Rory McIlroy +850
Sometimes, betting on the betting favorite feels lazy or feels like I’m cheating. Initial thoughts had me betting on one of two golfers in this tournament. Xander Schaffuele (+850) or Ludvig Aberg (+1600). The price I was betting Schaffuele at would be +1000; it likely would’ve been that had Scheffler been in the field. And I can’t bet Aberg at +1600. He’s excellent, and the metrics line up, but I would instead take a chance on another short option at this price.
My betting model’s top three are McIlroy, Schaffuele, and Aberg. A perfect pivot to McIlroy, last year’s champion, was in order. McIlroy is a deserving tournament favorite. He’s first in SG: APP, SG: Par 3, and BoB Gained. He’s second in driving distance, only behind Chris Gotterup. He’s the model golfer to win this event, hence his historic win last year.
The biggest question McIlroy faces is, “Where is his head at?” After his brutal gut-wrenching finish at the US Open, will he be ready to compete at the highest level? My guess is yes!
I expected another great showing from the man who loves national opens more than anyone on Tour.
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