In a postseason edition, we applaud a projected “churn” rate among the PGA Tour’s best and the opportunity for even more turnover this week in Memphis. We also debate the meaning of a “season-long” race.
Made Cut
Churn. When the PGA Tour unveiled this season’s signature-event schedule, which featured limited fields and significantly more FedExCup points awarded at the marquee events, there were concerns the new format would create a closed shop that didn’t allow for the historic turnover among the game’s best.
But concerns that the signature-event model would impact such change have eased, at least for now, with predictions at a 40% churn rate, which are the amount of players currently set to drop out of top 50 from a year ago.
The Tour set the top 50 as the benchmark for entry into the signature events, along with various other avenues based on season or “swing” performance, and with this week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship as the final event to secure that status for next year, the churn rate is currently at 20 players (including those who went to LIV Golf).
“You think back to a year and a half ago, we talked about all those metrics, and basically the idea was to keep the PGA Tour operation of the churn rate new versus old the same,” Tour Commissioner Jay Monahan said this week. “So far it seems to have worked out here after year one. The stats are very similar to what we projected.”
Drama. Based on that year-to-year turnover, this week’s playoff opener at TPC Southwind has the potential to deliver a compelling product with five players currently projected to play their way into, and out of, the top 50.
The most interesting of that group is Viktor Hovland, who has endured his worst season as a professional but is currently set to move from 57th on the points list to inside the top 40 thanks to a fast start on Day 2.
Harris English, Justin Rose, Nick Taylor and Ben Griffin are also currently projected to move into the top 50 and earn a spot into next week’s BMW Championship, as well as next year’s signature events. Currently moving out are: Austin Eckroat, Jake Knapp, Cam Davis, Alex Noren and Max Greyserman.
There are plenty of reasons to pay attention to playoff golf the next few weeks and earning a spot at East Lake for the season finale is always an accomplishment worth celebrating, but for many cracking the top 50 can mean the difference between uncertain scrambling and success in 2025.
Made Cut-Did Not Finish (MDF)
Semantics. The Tour’s postseason has evolved into a compelling product during a time of year when most fans are moving on to football, but the circuit’s big finish continues to struggle with the most basic of concept – semantics.
Calling the postseason a “playoff” was always going to be a nonstarter in golf circles and dubbing the finish a “season-long” race is also technically incorrect. Just ask Scottie Scheffler, the world No. 1 and six-time Tour winner this season.
“I talked about it the last few years. I think it’s silly. You can’t call it a season-long race and have it come down to one tournament,” Scheffler said this week. “Hypothetically, we get to East Lake and my neck flares up and it doesn’t heal the way it did at The Players, I finish 30th in the FedExCup because I had to withdraw from the last tournament? Is that really the season-long race? No. It is what it is.”
Scheffler went on to call the Tour Championship a “fun tournament” and, to be fair, he’s not wrong. The season-long race ended at last week’s Wyndham Championship setting the stage for the post-season or cup series or big finish, whatever you want to call it. But it’s definitely not a season-long race.
Progress. There was a Dec. 31 deadline for the PGA Tour and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund to reach some sort of definitive agreement. That now seems like a lifetime ago and Monahan appeared to set the tone for prolonged negotiations when he was asked if the release of next year’s Tour schedule means “there’s not going to be anything with LIV, at least through next year or ’26 or ’27.”
“I think that’s fair,” Monahan said.
The commissioner has been intentionally vague this year when pressed for details about the negotiations with the PIF, but for those searching for a modicum of movement on this front, he did offer a possibility.
“These are very complicated discussions. There are a lot of elements to them. But when you have the level of interaction, when you’re continuing to meet, move forward and discuss and innovate, you can’t be anything other than hopeful,” Monahan said. “As it relates to times and time frames and where we are, I’d just say that we’re in a good place with the conversations. That’s the most important thing.”
Missed Cut
Seeing through the darkness. As odd as Matt Kuchar’s decision was to return to Sedgefield Country Club early Monday to complete his final round at the Wyndham Championship, the confusion caused by the veteran’s decision was even stranger.
Kuchar had no chance of winning the regular-season finale — he finished tied for 12th and was six shots behind winner Aaron Rai — when he elected not to play the final hole due to darkness. After he finished his round Monday, Kuchar explained that he was trying to give Max Greyserman, with whome he was paired with and finished alone in second place, a chance of tying Rai by coming back the next morning.
“The general rule of thumb when you’re playing, you try to hit a tee shot if you can hit a tee shot. If you’ve got a reasonable approach, you hit it, you putt in the morning. You mark it, you wait if you have any sort of important putt,” Kuchar explained. “I did not realize Aaron Rai made birdie on the last. I’m figuring no way Max is going to finish out with a chance to win a tournament. I thought Max for sure had a shot to win and I thought no way in this situation do you hit this shot, you come back in the morning 100% of the time.”
Social media was not kind to Kuchar, but lost in the collective rush to judgement were the Tour’s own rules for when play is halted.
“It was obviously unique in that it was right at the end of a tournament, but if you look at our bad weather guidelines, everything was done exactly as written,” said Tyler Dennis, the Tour’s chief competitions officer.
As strange as Monday’s solo finish was, Kuchar followed the rules and was trying to do the right thing.
