Had Scottie Scheffler not been arrested ahead of the second round of the PGA Championship, Xander Schaffuele going wire-to-wire and winning his first-ever major championship would be the talk of the town.
However, with the PGA Championship in the books, we turn our attention to the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club. The 7,289-yard par-70 course differs significantly from Valhalla. Even with the soft conditions, Valhalla’s length provided a difficult task for golfers who were not particularly long off the tee.
At Valhalla, we saw approach shots from 200+. This week, at Colonial, the playing field is leveled with approach shots closer to the 150-yard range.
Last week, driving prowess was a crucial factor for success. However, this week, our attention shifts to golfers who excel with their second shots. These are the players who consistently hit greens in regulation and gain a ton of strokes on approach.
Scheffler is the best player on the planet, so he is the overwhelming betting favorite, going off at +240. He may very well win, but this week, I will try and beat the favorite.
Key Metrics to Success:
· Strokes Gained: Off the Tee
· Driving Accuracy
· SG: Approach
· SG: Putting
· Scrambling
· Proximity: 125-150 yards
· Proximity: 150-175 yards
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Charles Schwab Challenge Best Bet
Tony Finau to Win +3300
There aren’t many golfers as frustrating to bet on as Tony Finau. He’s such a great fit at so many courses and generally goes off around +1800. Where he be wayward off the tee or he leaves his putter at home. It feels like he should be in the mix on Sunday far more often than he is.
Despite the constant state of frustration Finau leaves me in, I am betting on him to win this week. He’s second in my primary model, only behind Scheffler. Much of that has to do with how well he strips the ball.
Finau is second in the field in SG: App in the last 36 rounds. He’s had issues with his putter, but last week, he switched to the claw grip and gained strokes on the putting surface.
Finau’s length off the tee should be a weapon if his driver is on.
I feel confident in Finau, given his excellent course history here and his ability to overpower this course.
