Golf’s major season is officially over after last week’s brilliant performance at The Open by Xander Schauffele. While I didn’t have a ticket on Schauffele to win The Open, I was holding a nice +700 ticket on him to finish top 20 in all four majors. Now, the two-time major champion has a strong argument for PGA Tour Player of the Year against World No.1 Scottie Scheffler. If the vote were up to me, I’d have difficulty passing up on Schaffuele after winning two majors in the same season.
That said, neither Schaffuele nor Scheffler will be teeing it up at this week’s 3M Open.
Despite many of the golfers who played in last week’s Open deciding to sit this week out, we should still be excited for another opportunity to bet on professional golf.
Staged at TPC Twin Cities, the 3M Open provides spectators with some action. The course isn’t particularly difficult, but with 27 water hazards, one shot off-target can bring big numbers into play.
The most essential stat correlation we have seen over the years is ball striking. This week, I am targeting in-form ball strikers who are either great putters or streaky putters. We’ve seen golfers like Tony Finau come here and dominate while getting hot with the putter.
Key Metrics Correlated to Success:
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking
- SG: Off the Tee
- SG: Approach
- Birdie or Better Gained
- SG: Par 5
- Sand Saves
- SG: Putting
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3M Open Best Bet
Nick Dunlap to win +4500
Winning tournaments in back-to-back weeks is nearly impossible, as is winning a PGA tournament as an amateur. However, Dunlap has already accomplished that feat. He has since turned pro and picked up his second professional win, making him the first player in PGA Tour history to win as an amateur and professional in the same season.
Going back to Dunlap this week, +4500 feels nearly mandatory. At the Barracuda, you are required to hit fairways and make enough birdies to remain competitive all week. The phrase “birdie fest” gets thrown around often, so I won’t go that far this week. However, those in contention will make a lot of birdies.
Dunlap does a lot very well. This season, he’s been a big-time gainer on approach and has a great scoring average on par 5s.
Staying out of trouble will be vital for the Alabama product, but this course will have demands similar to those of the Tahoe Mountain Club. Why not back Dunlap to win?