Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Blank Gameweek 30…seems so, so long ago, doesn’t it? Your humble writer has been enjoying the international break, taking some time away from the game, the social media and all the noise. I am going to need a minute to reset the mind back to FPL-mode and recall what happened two weekends ago. Just, just hold on a sec...I seem to be stuck in this lotus position. Left foot taken from under right knee first, I think...
Right. Good to go. So, Week 30. Wow, talk about the old emotional pendulum. Talk about fearing the worst - I began that round with only ten players and one of them (Lucas Digne) was already set to miss out. But by the end of Saturday, I appeared set for the absolute worst round of my FPL career. Both Aaron Ramsdale AND Gabriel Martinelli were ruled out on matchday, so two more players not playing. My two Wolves players, Rayan Ait-Nouri and Hee-Chan Hwang, brought back a point a piece while Philippe Coutinho was the STAR of the weekend at that point, having giving me TWO points. I had only four players left to go and was sitting on a grand total of FOUR points for the round. The international break could not come fast enough.
But alas, Sunday came. I had a chip and a chair. One chance at redemption. And folks, I got there…somehow. It began with my first positive return of any kind - a free kick goal from James Maddison, who was the player I had transferred in for the week. There were scenes, my friends. Maddison would go on to collect maximum bonus as well. But the piece de resistance of the round was the Tottenham game. Where not only did I get to enjoy a great reality result for the team I support, but my fantasy round was mostly saved by the exploits of Harry Kane (who I captained) and Heung-Min Son. Somehow…somehow, I managed to escape with a green arrow, scoring three points more than my personal “safety score”.
The amazing single-day comeback to wrap up the round and send me off to a two-week break was just the kind of result I needed and now, with batteries recharged and no more international breaks to be had between now and the rest of the season - the time has come. We are in the Week 30-somethings…welcome, to the RUN IN.
This is it. It is “GO” time. This is the meat and potato section of our season. For me, the first three quarters or so of the season is about maintaining a balance between having the productive players that others have been benefiting from, to stay “in the pack”, while picking strategic spots to bring in a player here or there that is a bit of a wildcard or, sometimes, going against the grain with a captaincy choice. I want to keep my eggs in a safe basket, but I want to also test the waters here and there, see if I can catch a big fish.
We are now at the stage of the season though where my philosophy begins to change. And with each passing week as we approach the end of the season, that philosophy becomes more and more chaotic. Now is the time I have to assess where I am, where I can realistically finish and what steps do I need to take to get there. This is were I start to follow the herd a little less and go against the grain a little more. It is nothing drastic, at least, not for me right now. Everything is dependent on current rank. At 119k, I am looking at a desired finish of somewhere between top 20k and top 50k. I know it can be done but I have no idea what exact moves can get me there. The only thing I know for certain is that following the herd is going to make that goal nearly impossible. I cannot captain Salah every week and expect to gain the kind of ground I am looking for. I will need to pick my spots and look for sound reasons to go with someone else
Please do not take this as a call for everyone to ring their alarms and start doing some crazy things with their FPL team. I cannot stress enough - the frequency of unconventional decision-making should be directly proportional to your current rank. The farther away you are from where you want to be, the bit more often you need to start gambling. This is just the very beginning of a tiny snowball rolling downhill. As the weeks press on, it will grow, but for now, let’s not lose our minds completely. Right, with one double gameweek fixture in front of us, let us look at this Week 31 edition of Captain Obvious…
A Lack of Double Vision
Why not begin this week’s look at the picks with something anti-climatic? That always generates interest the best, right? So yes, two clubs, Burnley and Everton, have two matches this weekend, the second coming this midweek against, of course, each other. So naturally this would be a good starting point when searching for a captain, yeah?
Well, in the case of Everton - in a word…”No”. That’s it. Just a solid “No” from me when considering ANY Toffee player for the armband. The reasons are quite simple and I am kind of appreciative that the fixtures help make it such an easy pass. You see, none of their players, in a standard single gameweek situation, would garner armband consideration, even if it were a home game to Norwich or Watford. This is not to say that some of their players are not capable of a return, Naturally, Everton have SOME points in the table, they have earned SOME positive results which translates to fantasy production from somewhere…but the problem with the Toffees is that they do not have any one or two consistent “main men” from which to expect production. Their points are spread out all over the place, and too thin in any one area to trust. Their highest scoring player this season has less than 80 FPL points. Ethan Pinnock, a Brentford defender, has outscored every Everton player. Are we ever talking about Pinnock as a captaincy option? Of course not.
But, Steve, what about the chance to do something over two games? Yes, generally, I would give some credence to that notion. But, again, the fixtures have made this an easy pass for me because the Toffees have both of their matches away from home this round, and they are a far, far worse side when not playing at Goodison Park. I do not see the Toffees having a chance to keep clean sheets at West Ham and at Burnley and I doubt they will find the net themselves in both games, which means every player you are considering is going to blank at least once. The only player that would typically interest me from this side is Dominic Calvert-Lewin, and he is getting back into fitness, having a decent chance at starting both of these games. But we have yet to see his form return and I just cannot see how anyone can call backing the forward anything but a blind shot in the dark, because there is nothing resembling trust behind giving DCL the armband.
Wout About Burnley?
Burnley are another side that, generally, we do not consider for armband candidates in standard single-gameweeks, but, unlike Everton, when a double gameweek came along several weeks back for the Clarets, I did think their marquee January signing, striker Wout Weghorst was worth a roll of the dice. Both Week 26 and Week 27, Burnley had a pair of games and Weghorst started in all four contests. I would expect him to do so again here. However, he did not exactly make managers who backed him in those previous double gameweeks ecstatic with his returns. One week went well - he got a goal and an assist against Brighton, followed by a blank against Spurs, but that resulted in a solid 14 point return, doubled by the armband. However, if that got you feeling confident in backing him the following round, where he played twice again, then you came away feeling burned, as he would score just three total points, blanking against Crystal Palace and Leicester, with a yellow card thrown in to rub salt in the wound.
We now have seen Weghorst start nine games for Burnley. That should be enough of a sample size to gauge whether he has the chops worthy of captaincy consideration. I believe the answer, by that measure, would have to be a “no”. When you take away that Brighton performance I spoke of, that leaves Weghorst having played eight other games, with a grand total of zero goals and one assist to show for it. So nine games, only one goal to be had from your prized “proven” striker. Keep in mind that while Burnley have both of their games at home here, one is against Manchester City, so you have a striker with one goal in nine playing a side with one of the very best defensive records in the league…not a good combination. So, what you are left then, is the expectation that he can deliver at home to Everton...and I think that is entirely possible. But, if we are looking at expectations from only a single game, then I think I have proven this week’s crop of double gameweek options do not offer the most appealing situations.
Mo Salah
To herd or not to herd, that is the question regarding Mo Salah for captaincy. There really is nothing much else to analyze when it comes to his attributes as an armband candidate. He is a proven great captaincy choice, has done it time and again this season and is on pace to possibly have the most productive FPL season in the history of the game. The only things that matter is his immediate situation and, for this round, that basically comes down to - is he back fit and ready to go from his international duties? The answer to that appears to be - “Yes. He is back and should be ready to go”. But, for what it is worth, the biggest opponent that can get in a player like Salah’s way is himself. His country, Egypt, did just get eliminated from making the World Cup tournament, so clearly that has an effect of some sort on one’s head. It is only natural.
The question is, will that disappointment with his national team keep him in a state of the blues and negatively impact his performance, or, and this is always my hope, will he now look to take out his frustrations with his next competitive game and go bonkers? I happen to believe, with the attitude Salah has shown over the years, that we should expect the latter to be the case as Liverpool look to kick off Round 31 with a potential lopsided beatdown of Watford on Saturday. In this reverse fixture, Salah did the business - scoring a goal, providing an assist, nabbing a clean sheet point and adding a pair of bonus points in on his way to a 13-point haul. And that was away from home.
Yes, I know there is trepidation among veteran FPL managers out there about backing a captain in the early Saturday kickoff. For whatever reason, whether there is any logic to it or not, giving the armband to a player in thar first game of the round never seems to go the way folks want. Or maybe there is a bit of selective memory going on. I will admit, I buy into it on some level. If I am weighing two options in a particular round and one of them has that early kickoff, I probably use that as an excuse to go with the other. But when it comes to Salah at home to Watford, that whole “early kickoff curse” thing can get chucked out the window. As long as Salah is cleared to play and there are no rumors to suggest otherwise as the deadline approaches, then I have nothing else influencing my decision should I choose to back him.
You may have noticed the language used at the end of my Salah report - “should I choose”. Yes, the truth of the matter is, I am not sure if I want to back Salah and this is where my end-of-season philosophy begins to come into play. I need to decide this week, and for the weeks to come, whether to go with Salah or with a candidate that has the opportunity to equal or better Salah, and who will have less managers using the armband, thereby making that player my captain carry more weight. There appears to be no other player more “safe” in which to try that with right now than Harry Kane.
Kane is in top form these days. In his last seven games, he has had eleven attacking returns - seven goals and four assists - blanking just once in that stretch (away to Burnley…see another reason to avoid Everton for captaincy). Spurs are scoring goals with ease at the moment and Kane has been heavily influential with both his visionary passing and clinical finishing. Playing at home against a Newcastle side who were themselves in good form, but have recently struggled, losing their last two games, failing to score in either one. What should be mentioned though, is that the Magpies only conceded one goal in each of these two recent losses and have had a very respectable defensive record for a long stretch now under Eddie Howe. Could Howe have something up his sleeve to slow down the Tottenham attack? It is possible, and it pains me to say this, but I know all too well from personal memory as a Spurs fan - we seem to always screw up against Newcastle whenever we are going well and need to keep winning. The season Leicester won the title and Spurs came up short - that result in the final weeks of losing to Newcastle will forever stick out in my mind…
Right, my apologies, I was drifting down a path of a dark dark memory. So, in regards to Kane for captain - I think he makes a fine choice. In a vacuum, if forced to pick which will have the better score, I honestly would go with Salah, but this is one of those situations where I may decide to go with the lesser-captained option and hope for the best. Kane is still rostered by less than 25% of FPL managers. Think about that, less than one in four managers even have the OPTION to give Kane the armband. You know Salah will be the most-captained and therefore, you know whatever production he offers will not have the same amount of impact to your rank if Kane were to deliver the same points. So, that is the main factor in why I would choose one over the other. Do you want to go another week with the herd (and considering Liverpool are home to Watford, its not the worst herd to be a part of) or do you want to test the waters and go for the underdog? My mind is not yet made up and likely will not be until about five minutes before the deadline.
Teammates
There are differentials to be had besides the Salah versus Kane debate and those differentials happen to be in very close proximity - mainly Heung-Min Son for Spurs and one of Sadio Mané or Andrew Robertson for Liverpool.
If you recall my last column, which I would not expect you to, given the two-week layoff we have had, you will be able to confirm the take I had regarding Son. I felt as though he was a sound captaincy option for managers who did not have Kane in their team, that he was a fine alternative. Hey, what can I say, I nailed that call. Son did deliver, one point better than Kane in fact, and things went fantastic for those who went with either guy. This was all under the pressure of understanding heading into last week that Son had been quiet for a few games while Kane and new teammate Dejan Kulusevski were racking up the points. I stuck with the most rational take though - which is that Son was a consistent player, which only meant that he was DUE to deliver. So, going forward with this week, I have the same thoughts. Take what I said about Kane, in regards to reasoning opting for him over Salah, and simply trade him out for Son. I do trust Kane more, I think he is proven to be more consistently involved game-to-game, but if you want to bet against Salah and you have Son, not Kane, then Son would get my consideration.
If looking for a differential though, even more appealing to me than Son is to look among Salah’s own teammates. Reason being, I just think Liverpool are going to put up a more lopsided score than Tottenham, so more points to spread around and nail a good captain. With Trent Alexander-Arnold out, that fact alone shouldn’t elevate Andrew Robertson’s status, but it cannot help shine a brighter light on the left back. He had already been playing through an extended stretch where he was outscoring Alexander-Arnold on average and he certainly provides a big differential. Despite being one of the most popular transfers in ahead of the coming gameweek, he is still in only about 10% of FPL teams as of this writing. With a home game against the Hornets, I really like the idea of Robertson having plenty of chances to offer attacking returns with a bit of an “insurance card” where, should he not get involved in the goal, still offers a very good shot at contributing to a clean sheet. He just seems destined to get points from at leat one source.
He never gets any FPL love, but I really think Sadio Mané could turn out to be a massive differential down the stretch in one’s FPL team and could be a good captaincy shout as well. With pitch time in question going forward for Diogo Jota, only two other players have more goals than Mane’s twelve. Salah, of course, with his ridiculous 20, and then Son, who has just one more than Mane with thirteen. Mane really has become the Scottie Pippen to Salah’s Michael Jordan on this Liverpool team. That is a reference you will immediately understand or just never will. But listen, if you have Mane, 1) I think that’s awesome and 2) he deserves armband consideration. This just might be the perfect week to maximize the luxury of having him in your side.
Finally, one name that is left-left field, but I still think, for those who like outside-the-box picks, offers some very good potential. Chelsea are at home to Brentford and that is a very nice fixture for the Blues to do damage. Because they have played so little in the league the past month or so do to matches getting moved around, they are the club people seem to have forgotten about and very quietly, Kai Havertz has been ripping it up, returning round scores of 14, 12 and 7 in his last three. He is the one player I wish I had in my side going into the weekend that I simply cannot make room for.
Otherwise, plenty of players with potential but I simply do not like the fixture. Manchester City are almost always a good bet to have one or two monster scores emerge from, but away to Burnley is one of those matchups that always gives me the creeps unless a player is in tip-top form. Manchester United versus Leicester, I think, should be an extremely interesting matchup, but interesting in that I have no idea which way it is going to go, which is why I cannot feel confident about picking a captain from either side there. West Ham should get the job done at home to Everton, but a healthy Bowen (which currently is not the case) is the only player that can be counted on consistently to contribute. I think they win, but guessing who will pitch in is spread out too evenly to make any worth trusting with captaincy. Wolves v Aston Villa, Leeds v Southampton and Crystal Palace v Arsenal are all very interesting matchups on paper. I am seeing some 1-0’s and 0-1’s in there though. Not the kind of matchups that I like to dangle the armband in front of.
Right, that about wraps up my thoughts looking around the league this week. It is mainly a Salah versus Kane debate. We know Salah will get a heavier dose of the armband, and there is no reason he shouldn’t, but perhaps you want to bet against the herd this week. And, for those willing to walk the edge a little more this week, other options from Liverpool and Spurs as well as one from Chelsea, have gotten a bit of time in the spotlight as well.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.