Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
All is not well in Camp Fuzzy these days. Your humble writer is coming off his third red arrow in a row, taking his 80k rank and applying a 50% markup over the last three rounds, now sitting at a frustrating 120k heading into Week 30. There simply was no fun to be had the entire round. Saturday saw my captain score a goal…which dropped my rank, because the effective ownership of Mo Salah, with those playing their Triple Captain chip, actually meant my rank could only go down. The bulk of games in this round were reserved for Sunday and, within 15 of the midday slate of matches, two players in my FPL XI, Hee-Chan Hwang and Lucas Digne were both forced out of their matches with respective injuries. Yeah, this gameweek was bound to hurt.
Even my 8 point hit, which involved dropping Brandon Williams, Raphinha and Wout Weghorst for Matt Doherty, Gabriel Martinelli and Harry Kane, providing me a +12 net gain of points, could not help make my arrow turn green, only less red. And yes, by the end of Wednesday night, I wish I was one of the brave 5%’ers that went Kane over Salah with their captaincy. Well played by those who went that direction but no regrets at the same time in backing Salah, who you have to think may have earned a second attacking return and pretty much matched Kane on points for the round had he not picked up a knock in the first game, only to make a sub appearance in the second.
And of course, with no players invested in the final night, the lone contest between Newcastle and Everton, my rank had nowhere to go but down, so yeah, a nice long week of absolutely nothing to feel happy about. In the end, my round rank was right on 2 million. Which, when you consider there are 9 million FPL accounts out there, one would think a 2 million rank would be “okay”...at the very least, good enough to hold rank considering 7 million other teams did worse, but apparently none of those 7 million are ranked above me. It was a painful 16k drop and yeah, a 40k drop combined over the last three rounds, making me wonder if I am ever going to crack top 100k again this season, never mind reaching my goal of somewhere in the 10-20k range.
So, I suppose what is needed most right now is a chance to take a breather from this sometimes-cruel game and that is precisely what is in store. This weekend will be a very small game week. It’s akin to that unfortunate slice of pizza that, due to uneven cutting, is ridiculously smaller than the rest, and therefore left sitting in the box until we finally give in and grab it, because hey, in the end, it is still pizza. Following this mini-gameweek is an international break, so we will not be returning to a regular slate of matches until the first weekend in April. Again, good timing for yours truly, as one can withstand only so many red arrows week after week. I need time to heal.
Right, so with only four games on tap and the likes of Liverpool, Manchester City, Chelsea and Manchester United all out of action, this should make for a pretty short list of viable candidates for the armband this weekend, with at least one top tier choice shooting his way up the selection ladder quickly due to the combination of great current form, a decent fixture, and…yes, a considerable lack of other names available that we would customarily see in the captaincy discussion.
Even though expectations should be set rather low for a round score this week with so many dependable point-getters out of action and many of us managers lucky to get 8 or 9 starting players going instead of a full XI, one cannot be lackadaisical in their decision-making for captain this week. In fact, due to the circumstances, this just might be the most important round to get your armband pick right, so let’s waste no time and look at this brief, but all the same critical, Week 30 edition of Captain Obvious…
As clear-cut a choice as Mo Salah has been most weeks this season for the armband, with the Egyptian international not in contention this weekend, Sir Harold of Kane appears to be just as solid a pick in this coming round. He is only one of two “premium” players with a game this week, the other which is a teammate, who we will get to in just a bit.
Kane is in peak form right now, finally rewarding his fantasy managers and legitimizing his expensive price tag. The FPL community was able to go without Tottenham’s talisman for most of the season without consequence, making it pretty easy to build a strong defense and midfield, but those days are over. With just a tick above 24% ownership as of this writing, despite strong investment in recent weeks, he is still only in one out of every four fantasy squads, so he fits the bill of a “must-have” player these days. Too productive to go without yet still not rostered so much as to make having him provide minimal impact because everyone else already has him, too.
Because there are a lot of dead teams in the FPL game, squads who have been abandoned with their captaincy permanently stuck on Salah, there is a good chance Salah will once again be the overall “most-captained player” in the game for Week 30. However, if you are like me, if you are anywhere in the top 1 million in rank, you can throw that out the window. The higher up the ranks you go, the more you will find Kane will be the most captained player for the coming round. Considering he is coming off a double gameweek in which he outscored Salah, current owners will feel little trepidation about backing him with captaincy as Spurs will be hosting West Ham in the fourth and final match of the truncated gameweek.
There is actually even better news for Spurs in general heading into this matchup, as Antonio Conte’s side will have the advantage of an extra day’s rest after West Ham just wrapped up a thrilling two-leg win over Sevilla in Europa League action last night, a game that saw David Moyes deploy his strongest side. Add in the lack of Jarrod Bowen due to injury, one has to think Spurs are in good shape to at least draw, if not win this matchup, and as long as Kane can get an attacking return and Spurs avoid losing, then the odds are pretty good that he will add bonus points to his total. He has collected two or more bonus in three of the last four in which he has scored, the only bonus-free game where he scored being the loss to Manchester United.
Now, maybe my personal loyalty may appear to be influencing my confidence in Kane as a top-notch captaincy choice this week, so let that same loyalty play devil’s advocate. Spurs are capable of putting in a terrible performance against any side at any given time, so while I would not bet against them getting a result against the Hammers, I would not be surprised at all if they suffered a defeat and Kane blanked. Such is the nature and culture at Spurs. It is not something I enjoy experiencing, but it exists all the same. Still, Kane has a very long track record to go by and, when he is in the middle of a four-game scoring streak, it is best to not bet against him.
I do think because of the fact that so many big names that might otherwise be armband candidates this week are out of the conversation opens the opportunity to pick an option out of left field, but my advice would be to back Kane this week. And, if you do not have him, he is worth taking a -4 to bring in and captain, assuming you would need to make two roster moves in order to make room for him in your forward line due to his hefty price tag. Perhaps some of you lucky enough to get a hat trick from Ronaldo can make the switch with one free transfer. If I were you I would thank the fantasy gods for Ronaldo’s hat trick and make that switch, as tough as it may be to sell a player coming off a fantasy haul like that.
With five goals in his last two games, and playing a Leicester side who have had a penchant for coughing up goals this season, my favorite of the “left field” picks this week is Toney. Things are looking up for Brentford’s attack the past couple of games and, even though he has only one assist along the way, you cannot tell me that the two games in which the Bees have found their scoring shoes is not directly a result of Christian Eriksen and his first two starts for the club.
Now, to be fair, three of Toney’s five goals in these past two games have come from the penalty spot, which makes his recent form a bit less “reliable” in terms of predicting further scores versus scoring from open play, but two things to consider - 1) his two open-play goals were quality as well, and one of those was set up by Eriksen, so the Danish veteran is looking to find the in-form striker when he delivers his classic big chance opportunities, and 2) you still have to get the job done converting penalties and no one is looking better at spot kicks right now than Brentford’s main man.
What DOES give me some apprehension about backing Toney is also down to a pair of facts - 1) his recent outburst has come against the likes of Norwich City and Burnley. Now, Leicester may not be a top 4 or even top 7 type of side which can strike fear into betting against them, but they are certainly an all-around better quality side than the Canaries or the Clarets, so it is quite possible that Brentford and Toney are held at bay and 2) while Leicester have built a reputation this season for being a sub-par defensive outfit, they have been improving lately, with two of their five clean sheets this season coming in their last three games. They are getting healthier at the back, too, with Wesley Fofana returning to action for the first time this season last night, scoring a goal in Leicester’s Europa Conference League tie with Stade Rennes.
Heung-Min Son and Dejan Kulusevski
Again, Spurs loyalty bias coming into play, but may I just say, I am so happy to include Kulusevski in the armband discussion this week. It can only mean one thing: Tottenham made a good, influential signing in the January window. The Swedish sensation has hit the ground running since being introduced into the Starting XI. After blanking in his first start, he has produced attacking returns in five of his last six, including his last four in a row, with a pair of double-digit hauls sprinkled in - the sort of big returns that you look for when scouting a potential captain. He looks perfectly comfortable as the threat on the right wing of Tottenham’s attacking trident with a deadly left foot, made perfect for cutting in from the right side to take his shots at the target. Not only does he have the ability to finish, he also has a very good knack for providing, registering five assists already, which accounts for five of his seven attacking returns. There has been some speculation that he remains the biggest risk to miss out of the XI, with Lucas Moura still in the mix, while Kane and Son have been such mainstays, but with what is at stake for Antonio Conte’s side and the form he is in right now, I just don’t see a reason for Kulusevski to get dropped. There will be an international break following this matchup with West Ham. Expect Conte to deploy all three of his “Big Three”.
With Son, it is a bit tricky. He has blanked in his last two and it cannot be ignored that he looks less involved as a direct result of Kulusevski’s major influence. One of Son’s great attributes, though, and it has been established over several seasons, is his consistency. Yes, he will have his “off” games, and he may even have two or three of them in a row, but that is usually about as long as it goes for Son before he starts to deliver again. So while you could say on the one hand, he is the least attractive armband option of Tottenham’s front three, you could on the other hand say that his reputation would make him appear the most “due” of the three to have a big game. I think, if you have a team without Kane, then you should not feel too discouraged in giving the armband to Son. It could very well be the case of catching a good player at the right time for captaincy, as his recent lack of returns will only lower his overall armband investment, which then makes any sort of good return have an even bigger positive impact on your rank.
That said, if I am being honest, were I to have both Son and Kulusevski in my team together, I would be more inclined to go with the hot hand in Kulusevski. Of course, if my pick went wrong, I would then hit my head with a shoe and say to myself “Why wouldn’t you back the more established, dependable option, which is Son?”. So, in that regard, it comes down to one’s own philosophy. If you feel better about backing a more established player, then Son may be the one for you. If you like the excitement of a breakout player in great form, then Kulusevski would fit that bill.
Others To Consider
Again, despite Kane, for me, being an essential player in one’s squad this week and therefore the strongest captaincy option, this is a gameweek that is worth thinking outside the box if your gut is leading you in another direction. The best thing to do is to look at the matchups and picture in your mind how the scorelines are going to look. If you see Spurs going 1-1 or losing 1-2, then maybe avoiding them altogether is the right plan.
With Wolves vs Leeds, probably the best individual talent involved for either side is Raphinha, and he should be in many XI’s for those high in the ranks, but with the fixture at Molineaux and with Leeds still going through a difficult managerial transition, I simply do no trust their attack. Yes, they put up a pair of goals in their last outing and Raphinha got an assist on one of them, but that was a match at home to Norwich. If you cannot score in that fixture, than you do not belong in the top flight. I think more weight has to be put on the two previous results in which the Peacocks failed to score altogether.
Conversely, Wolves should be looking at this fixture as one they should win, but they have established a reputation of squeaking out 1-0 results and that is precisely the kind of result I picture here. If Raúl Jiménez had been playing a part in a larger percentage of these 1-0 results, then I would be inclined to think of him as a fair captaincy choice, but I would much rather back a Wolves defender like Romain Saiss to get those clean sheet points banked and then hope for a potential attacking return. If I am feeling even more conservative, then if I had Jose Sa, I might actually think about going with the keeper more than anyone else from either side of this contest.
Aston Villa v Arsenal is a tough one for me to call. I really cannot make a sound guess on how this one will go, whether we are talking about which side is a better bet to win or whether this will be a low scoring or high scoring affair. It really can go any which way, which is why I feel nervous about giving the armband to any one player here. Now, if this were a two-match gameweek, with Wolves v Leeds and then this one, then by default, I would probably have to back Philippe Coutinho as a top armband option based on his solid form since arriving in January. But he goes as Villa goes, which is to say, one week they look very good and another week, they don’t. Arsenal are a solid defensive side and even though they are coming off a loss in which they conceded twice, that was against Liverpool, so you take that result with a grain of salt. Most of this season, the Gunners have been tough to score once on, so I get the feeling Coutinho could have a quiet one.
Odds are, at least one Arsenal player will have been worth giving the armband to this week, but who that would be is totally up in the air. If they do get the job done defensively, then Aaron Ramsdale would be a good bet to get into bonus point territory. If they need goals, well anyone from the likes of Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Alexandre Lacazette or even Martin Odegaard are capable of being the one worth handing the armband to. But that is why I shy away from all of them. I like to look for a player who is clearly the go-to guy for his team, which is why I am so big on Ivan Toney this week. Arsenal do not have a player like that, making backing one of them a total roll of the dice.
Finally, Leicester at home to Brentford “should” create an armband option or two, but like Arsenal, without Jamie Vardy in the mix, along with what has been a very heavily-rotated squad in recent weeks, I am not confident about captaining any of their players, though I am fully aware that the Foxes could score a few against the Bees. Based on last night’s XI for the Europa Conference League, in which James Maddison was used off the bench after playing a full shift in the league last weekend, I would feel most confident in him bring rested enough to start this weekend and would be my strongest choice out of that group, but it is definitely a left-field pick. Harvey Barnes did start last night, so even though he is probably on par with Maddison for potential were he to start, I do worry about whether or not he indeed starts.
Right, that is about it for this fun-sized gameweek to come. Fingers crossed for everyone out there. We can only expect low overall round scores so nailing the captain really feels important this week, and again, with yours truly on a three-red-arrow streak, the pressure is most definitely on.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
