Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Well, it is another one of those quick turnaround weeks where the tail end of a double gameweek leaves only one full day until the next deadline, so, as is customary on these occasions, I will be presenting a more streamlined version of the column. In fact, this is going to be an especially unorthodox version of Captain Obvious, as I expect the “intro” section of the column to be as large, if not larger, as the actual body. Once we get into the debate for the upcoming round, you will quickly see why that is the case.
It is only fitting for the timing of the column to be top heavy this week as, of course I am not coming off a round I can personally brag about. Instead, I just completed what I have to think is the most damaging round of the season. I have had worse ranks for individual rounds in this campaign, but with where I stood in the overall ranks and the wider range of points to be had because of the large double gameweek, my 2.6 million round rank, when there are over 9 million accounts, absolutely shredded my overall rank, taking me out of the 80k range and dropping me down to 110k.
The most frustrating aspect of the round for me was that so much hinged on just one decision, which was my transfer. Had I not done anything to my team, I would have had a much better round. And what made matters worse was, of all the weeks to fail on captaincy, this one really hurt the most, because I gave the armband to the same player I brought in, so he burned me twice as hard. Sigh...it is traumatizing to revisit, but I am a glutton for publicizing my punishment, so here it goes…
So much thought went into my transfer plans ahead of this past round. I was not only thinking about the gameweek in play, but also Blank Gameweek 30 coming up soon. I wanted to bring in a player that had a strong double for the round and also had a game in Week 30, and Raphinha made the most sense as that option. So much so, that I gave him the armband, thinking that with a managerial change, it would jumpstart Leeds and, at the very least, even if the defense did not improve, then their attack, led by the Brazilian, would do well against the likes of Leicester and Aston Villa. Instead, the Peacocks have now turned into not only a poor defensive side, they have suddenly forgotten how to score goals.
I could have given the armband to any other player in my lineup, save for Ben Foster, and I would have picked a better option. In a week where the captaincy decision was so wide open, there were so many players from which to consider rather than a Mo Salah landslide, and instead of at least breaking even with a “decent” selection, your humble (and now crestfallen) writer figured out a way to pick the very worst option.
To make matters worse, I removed the only midfielder that made sense to take out, because 1) he did not have a fixture in Week 30, 2) he had a “tough” single fixture in playing Manchester United, 3) his price had already been dropping lately and was on the verge of doing so again and 4) he is a premium-priced player, so taking him out freed up the funds I needed to plan for the weeks ahead, and part of that plan was to upgrade my Forward 3, who was a 4.4m non-playing enabler, with an eye on getting set to play my Bench Boost chip in the coming weeks. It all makes sense when you break it down like that, right? Well, that player I dropped was named Kevin De Bruyne. He put 18 points.
Ouch.
I also, due to the way my roster was set up, missed out on bringing in a Chelsea player, which would have been Reece James, who himself put up an 18-pointer. Now, he did since get injured and missed the second game of his double, but for those managers that invested this past round, they still likely came away with a green arrow with that transfer in alone. It was just a combination of too many things gone wrong all at once and between De Bruyne’s 18 points along with James’, it made the difference as I finished 17 points short of a “safety score” that would have seen me hold my rank right where it was.
Right, so there’s your Murphy’s Law anecdote for the week. I would hope that you could not possibly have made a worse move and flushed away as many points as I did this past round, so hopefully my story of woe makes you feel better about how things went for you. Hey, it is a win-win situation. I get to provide myself therapy by revealing the horrors of my gameweek to print media while giving others a chance to smile about dodging that level of misFortune.
With that now out of the way, it is time to address the coming week and that is where this shortened version of my column will show its final form very quickly, so let’s not waste any more time dwelling on my miserable round and get into the Week 29 edition of Captain Obvious…
Mo Salah
That’s it. That’s this week’s column. Salah has a double gameweek - you give him the armband. End of story. No need to dive into stats. No need to analyze the fixtures. All you have to do is what the vast majority of managers will also be doing and simply slap the captaincy on the best player in the game because he is playing twice and he has already rewarded us big time the last time he played twice. To turn away from him would not only be a giant risk to your rank, it is also simply insulting to Salah. I mean, what more does the man need to do for you to earn the right to win the captaincy?
Now, some of you might say, well wait a minute Steve, there are some factors that differ from the last time Salah had a double gameweek. For starters, it cannot be argued that the fixtures are tougher. In the previous double gamweek, both games were at Anfield and were against two of the weaker defenses in the league. This time around, both games are on the road and one of them is at the Emirates against an Arsenal side that can be tough to score on. To that I say - you are absolutely right. The fixtures ARE tougher. So, how much does that factor into my armband decision this week? NOT AT ALL.
Yes, it is true. The fixtures are indeed not as attractive and Salah could very well put up less points than he did in his previous double gameweek. But are we really expecting another 28-point haul? I know I am not. I know that I would be content with half of those points doubled and with a player like Salah, that is a more than reasonable expectation. Also, let us recognize that Liverpool’s first opponent of the round, Brighton, who had a solid defensive reputation this season, rarely giving up more than a single goal in any game, have now conceded two goals or more in three straight games. We are getting to that stage of the season where table position and season-long goals are coming to a head, and, in Brighton’s case, they are one of those sides that look very safe from getting relegated but also very unlikely to finish in a European tournament spot, so they are quickly running out of reasons to be motivated. Liverpool, meanwhile, are still in the hunt to chase Manchester City down for the title. I expect at least a couple of goals at the Amex for the Reds and I am expecting Salah, as per usual, to have some influence in those goals.
The Arsenal game could be a little tighter. I could even see the Gunners getting some kind of positive result in that match, but I still would put my money on Salah to be involved even if the Reds managed just a single goal. It also wouldn’t shock me to see him score a hat trick, because he is Mo Salah and he is quite capable of doing that in ANY fixture. I am surprised that I was able to say as much as I have about backing Salah for captaincy without being too repetitious, but I think you get the picture. Still, this is a column about “debate”, so I have to factor in at least one or two other possible options that may be of consideration. No matter what I may say about those options, however, do not let it carry a fraction of the weight that this portion of the column carries. You should be giving Salah the armband unless you are extremely hellbent on going against the grain.
The “Other Options”
Right, well probably the first place to start with when considering anyone else is to stay right on Liverpool’s roster and talk about Trent Alexander-Arnold. He is, after all, the second-highest scoring player in the game so far this season, over 20 points ahead of the next-best players. In fact, there have been several occasions where Alexander-Arnold has outscored Salah in a given round this season. But, there has been one factor that has played into the right back outperforming Mr. Mo, and that is that the vast majority of “better rounds” have come in home games. With both of these games on the road, it immediately takes Alexander-Arnold out of the equation for me. The main reason being that the expectation of clean sheets goes down.
To be clear, this is not to suggest that Alexander-Arnold is not capable of getting a nice haul this week and, because nothing is ever certain, there is some amount of chance that he indeed outscores Salah. But, the two main points that have already been mentioned still apply here. One being that giving the armband to anyone else carries a ridiculous amount of risk and will severely hurt your rank if things go wrong while secondly, again, Salah has been so reliable, there just isn’t much reason to bet against him this week.
Finally, the only other player who I can imagine being up for debate is Harry Kane. Kane has hit his best form of the season lately and Spurs are looking more and more comfortable scoring with Dejan Kulusevski providing that extra weapon in the front three while the wingbacks are finally starting to deliver some attacking returns. Based on Kane’s current form, I would consider it near-impossible for him to blank in both of his games, which, by the way, are both on the road against Manchester United and Brighton. The game against United has major implications in terms of a top four finish for both sides and will certainly be intriguing. Neither side have been as sound defensively as they should be, so you would think there will be goals in that one, but I also think they are each consistently inconsistent and that a tight game could be had here. I think Spurs will find the net, but I find it hard to make a solid prediction as to whether it is a lone goal or a handful.
The Brighton game, on the other hand, seems much like the Liverpool outlook when they play the Seagulls, and I think Spurs will have the added advantage of catching Brighton after a quick turnaround. Even if the Seagulls manage to put in a heroic defensive performance against the Reds, it would likely take every ounce of energy to do so and that will only help Tottenham in their quest to score at least a couple in that second game of the double gameweek. So, like Alexander-Arnold, I will admit, Kane outscoring Salah this week is not out of the realm of possibility, but, that said, I still feel Salah is far and away the smarter one to back.
I say this but reserve a tiny caveat for those who have really been struggling this season and find their overall rank currently deep into the millions. We are approaching the final quarter of the season and if you are ranked, say 4 million and change, then you are not going to make much of a dent doing what everyone else does at this stage and time is running out. Maybe you feel differently than me, but the difference between finishing, say, 3.6 million versus 5.1 million doesn’t really mean much. So, the only chance you have in this final quarter of the season to surge your way up up the ranks and finish, say, top million or top 500k, IS to go against the grain. I am not saying the strategy will work, but I am saying if you are far, far down the ranks, then you have to pick your spots to bet against the house and the house is all-in with Salah this week. In your case, you may want to bet against the house, even though the odds are not great.
Right, that is about all I can say regarding this week’s armband discussion. Again, I am a little bit surprised that I was able to talk for this much time about what seems to me to be an open and shut case, but that just reinforces my well-established reputation for being able to yammer away about a topic for much longer than the average person. With only four games on tap in the next round and no Salah to lean on, things should get interesting a week from now. Just do not expect much praise for Raphinha in that edition of the column, even if he scores a hat trick against the Canaries this weekend. You burned me, Raphinha. You burned me real, real bad. Here’s hoping things get back on track in Week 29.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
