Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Well, it is abundantly clear what the main talking point is from the gameweek that was - three cheers for Mo Salah! Everything about the Egyptian international was as advertised. On paper, with the opponents he had in his double gameweek, he looked the most attractive Triple Captain option in the history of the chip in the FPL game, and, unlike most seasons since the introduction of the Triple Captain chip where expectations came up short, the league’s indisputable best player continued his amazing run with a 28-point round, which means, if you played that chip, you added an additional 28 points to your round score over those who simply backed him with the standard armband.
I have to admit, I did feel a bit nervous about how the round would go, mainly wondering if playing the Triple Captain chip would be able to make up for my squad that featured only six double gameweek players when many managers were instead going the route of a wildcard or free hit chip, in which they could load their squad with eleven double gameweek players. But Salah, ol’ reliable, came through in a major way and, if you watched both of those Liverpool games, he could have easily added even more points to his round. Still, seeing the number “84” next to a single player on your team page…well, that is about as fulfilling a sight as one can take in as an FPL manager.
I say I had six double gameweek players but, if we are to be technical, the number was actually only five, as Trent-Alexander Arnold, along with fellow Reds full back Andrew Robertson, were both handed full rests in Liverpool’s opening match of their double against Norwich. It was an extremely unfortunate situation for those who looked to the game’s top-scoring defender for triple captaincy, as not only did he only play the one game, he somehow was unable to get an attacking return from any of the six goals that were scored upon Leeds in midweek. Salah’s armband backing won by a landslide, but Alexander-Arnold was the second-most backed player with the Triple Captain and I cannot help but feel remorse for the few that went his direction.
For yours truly, another green arrow, with a 139-point round minus a 4-point hit that paid off as it was spent to bring in Wout Weghorst. I felt a bit apprehensive about spending points, because it meant I needed to bench a player who I thought had a chance at a solid return himself, but I guess I can feel relief that Lucas Digne had a quiet 2-pointer, so yeah, in the last five weeks, I have managed to move my rank from 246k down to 80k, with green arrows in every round, so your humble writer is feeling pretty locked in right now. The lower the rank number gets, the tougher it is to gain significant ground from week to week. These last five rounds, I have been shaving off an average of 30,000 places in the ranks. Of course, this is unsustainable, or else I would be three more rounds away from being ranked #1 in the world. But, with a dozen rounds to go, and the momentum I am on and feeling good about the structure of my team and the plans for use of my remaining chips, I feel like a top 10k finish, which is my standard goal, is still very much achievable.
What this round also provided was something that makes fantasy sports so appealing to me. As a Tottenham fan, to see the club lose its fourth game in their last five, unable to put anything past the Burnley defense after having looked so sharp in attack in the win over Manchester City, it was a soul-crushing defeat, just when I was beginning to feel like maybe there was still time to make a run at a top four finish. My club is in total disarray and it is a tough pill to swallow, but hey, that’s the benefit of playing FPL. Sure, there are weeks where both fantasy and reality go poorly, but, much like the philosophy behind investing in double gameweek players, more often than not, you get at least something positive out of one of the two scenarios. Spurs will be Spurs and they are acting super-Spursy of late, but the past month of FPL has helped provide me some joy and ease my depression with the results of reality football.
Right, so this week should be rather interesting in terms of how your rank will be effected. It is a round full of clubs who are not playing, including the very productive and highly-invested Liverpool side, along with other sides who are at or near Top 4 status, Chelsea and Arsenal both without a match to play. This situation is compelling many managers to play their Free Hit chip, to keep their squad intact going forward that features several players from these three highly-invested-in sides, so some very strong-looking XIs, at least on paper, will be gunning for a big round score, while the likes of folks such as myself, who purposefully crafted a squad that could still field eleven players for the round without spending points or playing a chip will be holding their breath, hoping that the weapons they have can keep pace with those on their Free Hit chip. My hope is to be able to maintain my current rank. I have little faith I can make the sort of dent in the ranks like I have been in recent weeks, but will be very happy to hold serve, as it were, or at the very least, not suffer too big a loss and maintain a rank inside the top 100k. We also have one club who are playing twice this week, so that would probably be a good place to start our armband discussion in this Week 27 edition of Captain Obvious…
Wout, There It Is
I may be able to count on one nose, nevermind one hand, the number of times I have backed a Burnley player for captaincy in the years I have been writing this column, but, with the Clarets being the only club with a double gameweek, and as already mentioned, clubs we typically turn to for armband recruits; Arsenal, Chelsea and especially Liverpool, all being out of action, along with what has been Burnley’s best run of form all season, there is definitely legitimacy in finding a captain among their ranks, and in my view, Wout Weghorst stands out as the clear-cut option from their side.
One only needs to reference the previous gameweek to get an idea of what Weghorst can do when given a pair of games in one round, as Burnley just completed a double gamweek in Week 26, and Weghorst got a nice return of 14 points, which, for my money, would be a fantastic haul if he can do it again this week. Now, there may be some concern about playing time, because Burnley are indeed playing four matches over these two rounds, so it can only be natural to assume Weghorst might not play both games of the double for a second straight gameweek, especially after having picked up a knock during Week 26. However, we have to acknowledge that Sean Dyche has a reputation for turning to his best players for every league game, and given the dogfight to avoid relegation that Burnley are currently involved in, the key January signing who has already given the attack a noticeable boost, in my mind, has to be nailed on for these two fixtures, so I have no concern there.
Of the two games the Clarets have for the coming round, a trip to Crystal Palace and then a home game against Leicester City, one would assume the second game against the Foxes is the fixture that is more likely to yield a solid haul from Weghorst. But let us not forget that Burnley were able to go on the road and score three goals against a very solid Brighton defense in the last round. Palace is, indeed, the tougher of the two fixtures, but I think Weghorst has a shot at a return there. Still, should he blank, you then have a home game, with supporters who are certainly pumped after the win over Spurs, along with a Leicester defense that has been decimated by injures and wildly inconsistent this season, to give armband backers a very promising second crack at collecting some solid points for their would-be captain.
What About Everyone Else, Including Mee?
Weghorst may be, in my mind, the clear-cut best captaincy option from double gameweek Burnley, but are there any other Clarets that deserve armband discussion? In my mind, probably not. From an attacking perspective, there is no doubt that Maxwel Cornet is Burnley’s second-best threat for goal involvement, but after seeing him benched once again during the previous double gameweek, he simply cannot be trusted to start both of these Week 27 games. He is a very exciting player, carrying this club at times, but his fitness levels are simply sub-par and, after being worked heavily in the AFCON tournament last month, Sean Dyche has made it very clear that Cornet’s minutes need to be managed. He may be a decent play if you are on a Free Hit, but not armband material for me.
Speaking of Free Hit, that is where you are most likely to find additional Burnley players on FPL managers’ rosters this week, as it only makes sense to maximize on the lone double gameweek side, so players in defense like Nick Pope at keeper and Ben Mee or Connor Roberts on the back line do present a potential alternative to Weghorst, if you believe in the Burnley defense, but I personally think Weghorst is both the more potentially explosive pick as well as being the safest.
A trip to Palace may have been a bit more attractive before their most recent result, as their attack had been sub-par for a while, but they are coming off a four-goal explosion at Selhurt during the midweek and will surely be carrying the adrenaline of that result over to another game in front of the home crowd a few days later against Burnley. Then, with a trip to Leicester, I see yet another difficult scenario in which to expect a clean sheet, as the Foxes, because of their consistently lackluster defensive performances, have to put the emphasis on going forward and scoring. I think the chances for them to find the net at least once against the Clarets are very high. So, if you are following the same logic as I am, then you would need attacking returns from the likes of Roberts or Mee. Considering the latter just scored in midweek, I cannot help but think the odds of a center back, who has never scored more than two goals in a season, is highly unlikely to score in back-to-back gameweeks.
This is not to say one of the options at the back is incapable of producing over two games. Of course, with someone like Pope, there are save points to consider, and, should Burnley be able to find a clean sheet in the next two, bonus points for their keeper may also bee in the cards. But, even though a couple of rounds ago I felt there was some safety in backing David De Gea during Manchester United’s double gameweek, I just feel Pope’s chances of at least one clean sheet are significantly less enough to not feel the same about him for captaincy. That said, if you have Pope and you want to back him, I cannot say it is a terrible idea. Keepers especially have a tendency to surprise in a double gameweek. Heck, I brought in Aaron Ramsdale last week simply to give myself some Arsenal defensive cover for what looked a very promising round for at least one clean sheet, and instead, my bench keeper, Ben Foster, wound up scoring more points.
Playing Leeds Is Like a Double Gameweek In Itself
Right, so moving on to a few of the single gameweek players who I feel deserve consideration. For my money, the scouting has to begin with Harry Kane and Heung-Min Son of Tottenham. Now, it would be so easy to back either of this dynamic duo had their most recent result been the Manchester City win, but there will likely be many managers feeling concerned about either of these Spurs weapons coming off a goalless outing against Burnley midweek.
Well, as inconsistent as the Tottenham attack may be, there is one thing going on right now that is very much consistent and that is that Leeds United cannot defend ANYONE right now. They have conceded a ridiculous sixteen goals in their last four games. Already having been battered in recent weeks by Aston Villa, Everton and Manchester United, you have to think the main goal of Marcelo Biesla in their most recent match against Liverpool was to keep the score down. They may have had very little chance at a positive result against the Reds, but at least an improved defensive showing could give them some confidence moving forward. Instead, they shipped half a dozen goals to Liverpool and if the likes of Villa and Everton can put three goals past them, one has to think that is the expectation for Spurs - three goals, with perhaps a chance at one or two more.
Yes, it is fair to say that Spurs seem to have a tendency to surprise in their tougher fixtures while putting in disappointing performances against the sides they should beat - the results this past week against Manchester City and Burnley offering perfect examples, but I do feel goals will come here. Perhaps the game could go 3-3, which would fulfill the obligation of doing well in attack against this reeling Leeds defense but also result in disappointment in only securing a draw, which would be the most Spursy result possible. Still, if we are thinking Tottenham are in good shape to get a few goals, then one has to think that both Kane and Son are highly likely to be involved in those goals and therefore make for solid armband options. Goodness knows the goals are not coming from their wingbacks or their creatively-stagnant midfield, so if you think Spurs will indeed be the latest side to exploit the Leeds United defense, then you should feel very confident to get something out of both Kane and Son.
Some folks, particularly those using their Free Hit chip, may be carrying both Kane and Son, which then begs the question, “which of the duo makes for the better captain?”. Honestly, its very close to a coin flip for me. Kane has been mostly very good of late, despite the negative results, he has certainly picked up his influence in the attack compared to the first half of the season. He is also on penalty kick duties, which can sometimes be the tiebreaking factor when trying to pick between two solid options. However, one cannot overlook how consistent Son has been, not just recently, not just this season, but over the course of his Spurs career. There seems to be some games where Kane plays a bit deeper and is not the focal target in the box when Tottenham are building their way to a chance, but Son seems to always get his moments in every game. I had to make a similar call a couple of weeks ago for those who were rostering both Bruno Fernandes and Cristiano Ronaldo and I leaned Fernandes. Maybe I just like that midfield combination of getting an extra point for a goal plus a clean sheet point should that come into play, so I think I am leaning toward Son as the more attractive armband option of the two, but I am not as certain as I was about backing Fernandes over Ronaldo. If you have your gut making a call, just go with it. Otherwise, flip a coin and let fate decide rather than beat yourself up should you simply try and guess and wind up getting it wrong. I think both are going to get something should Spurs score three or more, so both may wind up being great picks.
Bru-”knows”
My final pick on the armband shortlist would have to go to United’s aforementioned Bruno Fernandes, which is difficult for me to admit, considering I have sold him this week to bring in Son, as I am looking at not just a good fixture for Spurs, but also good fixtures and double gameweeks to come for Tottenham, as well as adding a million to my bank, which will help me upgrade Weghorst next round to my next double gameweek forward prospect, which at the moment is Everton’s Richarlison.
You know, with the pair being compatriots of Portugal, you would have thought when Cristiano Ronaldo returned to Old Trafford, that there would be plenty or production between he and Fernandes this season, but that really has not been the case. On his immediate arrival, Ronaldo scored a brace and was looking the leader of the attack and it seemed to negatively affect Fernandes’ production. But, as the season has worn on, we have witnessed the generational talent in Ronaldo simply not performing anywhere near the standards we had grown accustomed to for nearly two decades. There have been several instances just in the past few games where Ronaldo had a look at goal which, in the past, he would have scored with ease and authority, but instead he failed to provide that finishing touch we expect from him. We have also seen him get benched for tactical reasons, confirming he is not the heart and soul of United’s goal threat.
Ronaldo’s struggles in recent weeks seems to have given Fernandes a shot in the arm. Before CR7’s arrival, Fernandes was the focal point of attacking production for United since the day he was signed, but it was clear, whether it was usurping penalty kick duties or just working more at providing for Ronaldo, the mindset for Fernandes has noticeably changed for the better and he is reclaiming his status as United’s best attacking weapon.
Playing at home to a Watford side that just shipped four goals to Crystal Palace, I definitely see United capable of putting up at least two goals against the Hornets, with three or four goals completely in the realm of possibility. Yes, the Hornets had tightened up defensively and did keep a clean sheet as recently as last weekend, but I just feel having two games on the road with a quick turnaround, and seeing them concede four times in the first of those two games, that it would be difficult to imagine them suddenly bouncing back and making things difficult for the Red Devils. If anything, United tend to be their own worst enemy, and I still think they can be difficult to trust against your midtable sides, but Watford are simply not very good, the game is at Old Trafford, I can definitely picture Fernandes, who assisted the lone goal this midweek in United’s Champions League tie, by the way, having a solid chance at not just one, but two attacking returns against the Hornets.
City Weapons Getting Honorable Mention
Finally, we need to talk about another high-scoring club, Manchester City, who feel even more dangerous in a fantasy round where Liverpool are not involved, as the Citizens make a trip to Goodison Park to play Everton. The Toffees, whether you are talking about the early part of the season under Carlo Ancelotti or the current Frank Lampard regime, simply are not a very good defensive team, as they have managed just one clean sheet since Week 11. Meanwhile, City continue to be a reliable source for goals, as they have 63 already this season, second only to Liverpool, so a couple of goals at Goodison certainly seems a realistic estimation.
The question is, who do you back? Which, is always the concern with the gamble that is Pep Roulette. However, that roulette wheel may be a little easier to handle as Jack Grealish and Gabriel Jesus appear to be out of contention for the clash against the Toffees. That makes City’s front three, which has been pretty standard in recent games, pretty reliable to expect. That being Raheem Sterling, Phil Foden and Riyad Mahrez. Sterling has had two strong hauls in his last three games, including a pair of assists against Brentford, followed up by a hat trick against Norwich. For me, he is the most dependable option of those in the front three. Mahrez would be next, mainly for his productivity from some very professional spot kicks he has been converting, along with the ability to still do damage in open play. Foden would probably not come into my thinking for the armband. He doesn’t have that explosiveness that Sterling is capable of, does not have penalty duties to lean on like Mahrez, and, if there was a surprise omission among the front three, I could see him getting dropped if Pep Guardiola was in the mood to push Bernardo Silva further forward, which he does do from time to time.
All that said, I still believe in class, and both Joao Cancelo in defense and Kevin De Bruyne in midfield has it in spades. They will likely see little investment in the armband this week but I think they are good shouts for those looking for an outside-the-box differential. De Bruyne particularly appeals as his ownership has been steadily dropping in recent rounds, making his output, should he haul big, all the more impactful on your rank.
That’s about all I have for Week 27. After a 139-point round, and most of you also eclipsing a triple-digit round score, we may have to settle for a much less lucrative gamweek to come. But, I do hope you nail the right captain, because as we tend to see, a well-chosen captain can make an otherwise lackluster round end up being a very productive one.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.