Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
Week 25 was, well, what can I say…I pretty much nailed my analysis on the head, from giving a slight nod to Bruno Fernandes over Cristiano Ronaldo (Fernandes outscored him 12 points to 10), while also pointing out that David De Gea was a solid option if you wanted a more “safe” pick, as he turned in 10 points himself.
By “safe”, it took the final seconds of United’s second game for Fernandes to score a goal and turn a miserable round into a profitable one. Had he not scored that stoppage time goal on 90 minutes plus 7, then he would have broken the hearts of a million managers. But, and this is what I stressed on Twitter after United had a poor showing in their first game of the double…this is why we back players who play twice. There is always a chance they come good in the second game and validate the pick, and that is precisely what De Gea, Fernandes and Ronaldo did.
One more pat on the back as I did stump for Jarrod Bowen last round as well, despite his single fixture. When players are as hot as he is, you simply cannot leave them out of the armband conversation, and if you were brave enough to back him, he outscored all of Manchester United’s assets. Conversely, I got it wrong with backing Philippe Coutinho. It would appear that extra match in which he blanked and Aston Villa looked atrocious in their loss to Newcastle United, that Coutinho and the rest of Villa’s attack look much more comfortable playing at home right now than they do on the road. I still think Coutinho has armband potential, but if he is on the road, or if there are some clear-cut more appealing options with a double gameweek (such is the case for the coming round), then he does drop down the ranks for me. Still, despite his Week 25 stinker, exciting things to come with a home game against lowly Watford on tap.
It was another solid green arrow week for your humble writer, as I have now finally ascended to a five-digit number overall rank, thanks to a fourth straight green arrow. There is no coincidence that playing my wildcard has everything to do with my recent success. Wallowing in a 250k rank after Week 21, it was clear that the time was right for my wildcard.
Yes, you will hear from many pundits about how much more lucrative playing the wildcard strictly to capitalize on double gameweeks is the only way to play it, but I have to disagree. If you are sitting at a solid high rank, say 50k or above, then I can see the rationale for holding it a while longer. But, if you were like me, and sitting at 250k, or even worse, then it makes more sense to me to play it earlier, as long as you are able to build a solid side that can chip away at the rankings one gameweek after another, rather than try and kill it with a 150 point round by fielding eleven double gameweek options, for instance. You may get a nice payoff for that round alone, but will it then trap you into a squad that you may not be too happy with for the rounds that follow? It is all a matter of preference, but I am looking at how I have climbed the ranks ever since playing mine, and I happy to be at this stage of the season, filled with momentum and still able to do damage with three remaining chips - my bench boost, triple captain and a spare free hit.
Speaking of Triple Captain chips, well, for the coming round, you almost have to play it. This is a bit of an odd week to do a captaincy column as the shortlist of options is as short as it will ever get. You have one player that pretty much takes the armband cake without question this week, with a secondary choice that should see a chunk of managers go after, if only to try and out maneuver the clear option, but then…that is really it. I cannot even think of a third player worthy of an honorable mention. So, this is going to be an easy week to point out who deserves the armband, and perhaps a shorter column than usual for that very reason. So, let’s relax and have some fun as we look at the mini-landscape in this Week 26 edition of Captain Obvious.
Mo Salah. End of.
Once the FA Cup got into full swing and it became abundantly clear that Week 26 was going to be a heavy double gameweek in response to the outcomes of the domestic tournament, everyone was licking their chops knowing that Liverpool had one very attractive fixture already scheduled and that their makeup game which could be added to the round was also very appealing. As soon as the idea was planted in our minds, before things were confirmed, the FPL community who pays close attention to these things were already prepared to play their triple captain on FPL’s far and away most productive weapon.
When the double gameweek was confirmed, it was everything we had hoped for. Liverpool had both of their games at home, with their opponents consisting of two mediocre at best sides - Brentford and Leeds United - both clubs who have lost more than twice as many games as they have won this season. In the case of Brentford, they were one of the darling clubs of neutral fans in the opening weeks of the season, grabbing a solid chunk of points with some fantastic results that centered around solid defensive play. However, once keeper David Raya was lost to injury for an extended period of time, the defense of the Bees took a serious nose dive and points were suddenly becoming a rare commodity. Raya is back now, but Brentford have yet to show the moxie that gave them so much confidence and so many positive results in the early going.
Leeds, meanwhile, just might be the most disappointing club in the top flight this season. After a stellar 2020/2021 campaign, where they seemed capable of getting a positive result against anyone, they have been decimated by injury, most notably Patrick Bamford in the striker role while also misfiring in the transfer window, particularly with the addition of Júnior Firpo, who has been downright dreadful in his first season of Premier League action. The defense as a whole has been erratic at best and Liverpool happen to be catching them at precisely the right time, as the Peacocks have shipped three goals in each of their last two games. It would be difficult to imagine that Leeds will sudden;ly tighten up defensively, with a trip to Anfield in store for them next.
I saw an interesting tweet about why Salah may be a trap as a captain in the next round. He mentioned how Salah was the only one of the front three to play a full 90 minutes in Champions League this midweek. He mentioned how he is mentally not all there after losing the AFCON final. He mentioned how January signing Luis Díaz will eat into Salah’s minutes, and he mentioned how Salah is coming off a blank against Burnley. Let me squash these “strikes against” Salah one by one…
- I have no worries about Mo’s fitness levels. He played a full 90 midweek versus the others BECAUSE his fitness level is better than his teammates and as good, if not better than any star attacking player on Earth right now. He is barely human. He will start.
- I do not see any reason to think the AFCON result is hampering him. He got right back on a plane and got right back into training and was urging Jurgen Klopp to get hm back into action immediately. He is not sulking. He is a competitor’s competitor. Klopp himself said the best way to handle Mo is to let him play. He is going to play.
- The only point I slightly agree with. There will be situations where Salah might come off after 70-80 minutes rather than go the distance, now that the Reds have that extra major talent in Diaz to help the front three. But I only see Salah getting lifted if the Reds have the game in the bag, and if they have it in the bag, that increases the likelihood that Salah has already locked in a nice FPL return…so who cares?
- If you read my column last week, I made a point that Salah historically has not had much success against Burnley. Every player, even superstars, usually have at least one opponent they struggle with. Blanking against Burnley is not uncommon and should not be looked at as a sign of poor form on the way.
Here is why I think Salah DOES warrant captaincy, and I do not mean your standard armband, but worthy of playing your Triple Captain chip…
Since the introduction of the Triple Captain chip, there has never been a player who is far outproducing the rest of the league given a pair of games in one round as attractive as this. This truly is, on paper, as good as it gets. If this is not the best opportunity to play the TC chip, I would love to know when. Even if you are considering Manchester City, the one club who can outproduce Liverpool, you always have to worry about the risk of rotation with Pep Guardiola’s side, thus trusting any one option with this coveted chip becomes very hard to do. That simply is not the case with Liverpool. Yes, they have some areas of the pitch that sees players get rotated, but at this stage of the season, Klopp and company still feel that they are in the title hunt and there is no way in my view that he can afford to bench his best player, even though the Reds would likely get three points without Salah. Based on track record, I just do not see him riding the bench.
The real battle now is between Diogo Jota and Roberto Firmino for that central role and, with Jota having picked up a knock in the Champions League, while also being dropped for Firmino once the trio of Firmino, Salah and Sadio Mané were all available. It was as I suspected. As productive as Jota has been in scoring goals and has had the benefit of little competition with Firmino’s injury earlier, followed by Mane and Salah away to AFCON, when everyone is fit and available, I still believe Klopp feels his strongest side has Firmino in it. Firmino may not be the goal machine Jota is, but Liverpool are a better “rounded” side with Firmino’s skill set, while Mane and Salah can score plenty enough goals themselves to offset a lack of Jota.
Finally, let us think about a worst case scenario - where Salah only starts one and plays maybe 120 minutes over these two games instead of 180. Salah’s season long production on average still gives his armband selection validity. For most players in this league, Salah can do as much damage, if not more, than everyone else with half the amount of time. Given his two opponents, I feel even more strongly about how much a better option he is than any other attacking side. Yes, Norwich have improved defensively over their days under Daniel Farke, but they are in a right pickle at this very moment, finally getting exposed big again against Manchester City for four goals in their last game. You have to think the club as a whole have no confidence whatsoever in following up a home loss to City with any hope of improving the following weekend with a trip to Anfield. I expect three goals in this one, perhaps four.
Then, there is Leeds, who themselves are reeling defensively, again, for us FPL managers, Salah is catching them at the right time, as Leeds has conceded three goals in each of their last two games, In my estimation, a conservative guess would see Liverpool scoring 5-6 goals over these two games with a BARE MINIMUM contribution from Salah of 1 goal, 1 assist, a clean sheet point and a bonus point. That is 10 points right there, plus four appearance points, possibly only three? So 13-14 points minimum. He could easily, EASILY, eclipse 20 points or more if he is in the mood. If you are not triple captaining him, you are going against the grain this week for sure. If you are not captaining him at all…well, your last name must be McFly and I would love to borrow your almanac some time.
Trent Alexander-Arnold. For those who say “No Mo.”
Even in rounds such as this where one players stands out so far above everyone else, there is always at least one more option that is at least worthy of talking about, and that is Salah’s teammate and 2nd-highest scoring player in the FPL game to date, Trent Alexander-Arnold.
I feel the same way about the Liverpool right back as I did about David De Gea last week. There is, in my view, a slightly higher floor with Alexander-Arniold. Even more so than was the case with Manchester United, where I was feeling confident that they could keep at least one clean sheet in their two home games (and they did), I feel the odds for the Reds to do the same are even greater, mainly because of the Brentford match. The Bees attack simply is not very good these days. Perhaps if Christian Eriksen can get up to speed and impose his midfield magic on this attack, I would feel a bit different, but as things are now, the Toney/Mbeumo Show isn’t exactly enjoying high ratings these days. They have failed to score in their last two games and have not scored more than one goal in their last six. Liverpool, meanwhile have kept five clean sheets in their last six home games.
You may have heard it discussed before that Alexander-Arnold has actually been more consistent in his production than Salah if you cherry-pick a run of games. There is no doubt that TAA has been phenomenal at home with returns like this in those last six home games: 15, 9, 9, 11, 10 and 6. That works out to precisely ten points per game in those last six. Quick math, if he can keep up that pace (and remember, the opposition is not at all difficult), then you are looking at a 20 point round. Slap a triple captain chip on there and suddenly you have 60 points in the bag. That is basically what we are dealing with when we narrow our focus on these two players this week and think about using the triple captain chip. A round score of somewhere around 20 points multiplied by three. What it really comes down to for me is, is this a situation in which to stick with the herd, which would be Salah, or go with the differential which is Alexander-Arnold. In a normal gameweek, without the use of a chip, I would probably lean more toward the defender. However, not following the herd, when there are so many points at stake, is a risk I simply do not want to take. So, I normally do not reveal my own picks, but I have made it pretty clear that I will be backing Salah this week. Trent is my vice-captain and, who knows, perhaps something could spark a change of mind and I switch to the defender. But, as of this moment, I am bracing for a Salah-bration.
That’s about all I have for Week 26. Like I said, not too much to get into this week based on the circumstances. With Liverpool on a blank next gameweek, things ought to get far more interesting with the armband debate. Until then, enjoy a big double gameweek, and let us strive to reach that exalted total of 100+ points.
Good luck, and may your arrows be green.
