Greetings, and welcome back for another round of FPL captaincy debate, the most important decision of your gameweek.
This is the first captaincy column since Week 15 so, before diving into the current FPL landscape, it would make sense for me to address the elephant in the room. 2021 was a difficult year for many people and, as it drew to a close, things got pretty dicey for me. I had to get heart surgery which kept me out of the FPL arena for several weeks and recovery is still an ongoing challenge.
Despite hitting a massive pothole on the road of life, what matters most is that the surgery was successful and here I am, back to doing what has helped me through many a challenge for the past decade, talking fantasy Premier League. Naturally, over these last several weeks, I have had to prioritize things which means managing my FPL squad, particularly while in hospital, was not given the sort of attention it normally does, but I managed to “water the plant” enough to keep myself in the same area of rank. In fact, I was perfectly pleased with the state of things, going to sleep last night with a rank of 150k.
Then, Jarrod Bowen happened. For the first time this season, I took an eight point hit to prepare my side for the double gameweek, having taken only two 4-point hits so far in the campaign. Because of the shape of my squad, and feeling like my midfield was already stocked with good players and plenty of potential, the one player I did not bring in, despite the clear appeal, was Bowen. I thought, if I can successfully fade him, then I can gain ground in this gameweek, or at the very worst, maintain my position. Well, all was fine with a captained Michail Antonio during the longest FPL round I can ever recall, right up until a few hours ago. I woke up this morning, begrudgingly opened the scoreboard page and saw the damage.
A Bowen brace, an Antonio blank and, for good measure, a non-appearance for another double gameweek player I had brought in, Ben Johnson. It was, by anyone’s definition, a worst-case scenario. An arrow so red, it appeared to be bleeding on my screen, as a 150k rank plummeted nearly 100,000 places to 246k. Perhaps the most painful moment caused by a single player so far this season. However, instead of having a meltdown about it, my reaction, clearly influenced by recent events, was quite different than it would typically be. I just sort of smiled and said out loud to an empty room, “I am back!”.
Missing out on the Bowen points was just the sort of miserable result that reminded me of how much of a wild ride playing FPL can be. And it is the wild ride, the highs and lows of this fantasy roller coaster, which makes the game so exciting. Right now, I am happy to simply have a ticket and a seat on the train. I also cannot help but put into perspective the chaotic nature of this FPL season, with Covid having a significant impact on the proceedings. This past round, no better example than for those who loaded up on Everton and/or Leicester players, only to see a match that had already been postponed once, postponed yet again far after the round began, leaving many wondering why they spent points or played a chip this week.
Right, so I am admittedly a little rusty at this. We are going to have to acknowledge that I am the pundit equivalent of Dominic Calvert-Lewin - coming back after a long layoff, plenty to be excited about getting back in the game, but it is probably best to keep the expectations low as I shake the cobwebs off. So, with your patience and understanding, let us take a look at the Week 22 edition of Captain Obvious...
Into The Great Wide Open
With the reliability of West Ham’s attack this season and Norwich as one of the two opponents the Hammers had in their double gameweek in the previous round, it really helped in narrowing down the captaincy pick. For most, it was a choice between Jarrod Bowen and Michail Antonio. Admittedly, had Bowen been in my side, he would have been my pick, but I still felt Antonio had plenty of appeal himself.
This week, despite having eight clubs with a double gameweek, the armband search is much more murkier, not because there are so many more options than the last round, but because, for one reason or another, none of them stand out as a clear, confident choice. In terms of fixtures, Watford looks the most appealing, as they will be taking on two of the lower sides in the league, Burnley and Newcastle. However, Watford are still Watford, and while Emmanuel Dennis and Josh King have been fantasy relevant this season, it is a big ask to trust a Hornet with captaincy when there is no debating they could put up a stinker of a performance against any side.
For the rest of the clubs on a double, there are plenty of questions. Leicester have some exciting players and have Burnley as one of their opponents in the coming round, but can you risk the armband on anyone from their side when they are struggling to have enough players available? Spurs are climbing the table, looking better overall under Antonio Conte, but their attack still seems to be struggling to find form and, with Heung-Min Son now sidelined, can we expect Harry Kane to be a one-man wrecking crew? Manchester United have Brentford on the menu as part of their double gameweek, but there is nothing “united” about the way they are playing football right now. A double gameweek for Chelsea almost always creates hype for a few of their players, but with Manchester City away as one of their two fixtures, that really lowers their appeal.
What If The Best Was Available?
Had this been a single gameweek, with only the originally scheduled games on tap, we would know exactly where to go for the armband - Liverpool. Playing Brentford, whose defense has been gradually falling apart as the season wears on, most recently exposed by a four-goal onslaught by Southampton, this would be just another week to lean on Mr. Reliable, Mo Salah. But with the Egyptian international playing the AFCON tournament, he is not in the captaincy conversation for at least the next two gameweeks. Still, would anyone be shocked if the likes of Trent Alexander-Arnold or Diogo Jota brought home a double-digit score and out-produced whichever double gameweek option you give the armband to?
I personally will not have the bravery to do it, but I would not find it irrational to back one of Jota or Alexander-Arnold this week. As it stands, I have half a dozen double gameweek options to choose a captain from, and with six players, I would HOPE at least one of them outscores my Liverpool players. But will I choose the right one? It really feels like every double gameweek player is capable of returning a pair of 2-point blanks. It seems more likely to me that Alexander-Arnold will outscore a four point double gameweek return than to blank himself. Yet, conventional wisdom says to go for a double gameweek player. Consider this a foresight/hindsight moment. I will not recommend a Liverpool option for captaincy, but let us reference this space a week from now and see how things went.
The Two Towers
Looking at the early polling for captaincy this week, it appears managers are most comfortable going with one of two players who share a common trait - superstardom. Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane, two giants in the game, are both on for two matches this gameweek, and there is plenty to be said about the rationale that, if nothing sticks out as an obvious choice, back a legend of the game. These are two prolific goal scorers capable of delivering a hat trick at any time without the football world reacting in shock.
Just a look at their respective price tags would make the argument that there is no sense in paying to roster a player this expensive without having the trust to back them with the armband. However, things are made complicated when both players are nowhere near their best form right now. And, for both, it is not just their individual form that plants the seeds of doubt, it is the overall form of the club they play for. Spurs are getting results, in league play anyway, that would suggest a rise in form, but it has not come so much from an uptick in attacking returns as it has been a tightening up in defense. Manchester United, meanwhile, are struggling in a major way to play with any kind of consistency, and though Ronaldo has been their most dependable attacking player, there have been some woeful results in recent weeks.
In terms of fixtures, Ronaldo would appear to have the advantage over Kane, as the Brentford match for United is the standout matchup for either club. If Manchester United can play with any amount of competence, then one would expect a few goals against the Bees, with Ronaldo’s chances of being involved quite high. That said, even though Tottenham have a tough Arsenal defense to contend with, Harry Kane has a history of rising to the occasion for the North London derby. That is the thing about getting too attached to which fixtures are better for this player versus that player when you are talking about the best goal-scorers on the planet. They achieve that status not by simply beating up on easy opponents alone, they tend to be the heroes in the tougher matchups and it would be no surprise if Kane did it once again.
That said, there are two reasons why I feel Ronaldo is the more sensible pick for the coming round. First, one of Tottenham’s games is against Leicester, and as of this writing, I cannot feel safe thinking there will not be another postponed game for the Foxes. Just a simple glance at the FPL transfer page of Leicester players - you can barely find eleven players to suit up. Last I heard, they were five players short of having the required amount of players for a PL game, which is why the Everton match was called off. Were it one or two, perhaps I would not be so worried, but they need to get at least five players available. Obviously, with it being the second game of the double gameweek, there are a few extra days to make it happen, but if we get news that the Foxes will need to postpone the first game of their double against Burnley, then I definitely will not risk the chance of the Tottenham game getting called off.
The other reason is the absence of Heung-Min Son. This is not a case of “oh, well if Son isn’t in the game, that just makes it more likely for Kane to hog the fantasy points.” It is the partnership between the two that benefits them both. Spurs were already a side that could not be considered in great attacking form. The absence of Son certainly will not help their situation. I cannot feel confident of Tottenham scoring more than one goal in either game. While the chances of that one goal coming from Kane is pretty high, it is not the kind of high-ceiling situation I would want when nominating a captain.
The Menace
Right, so where my heart is leaning at the moment, and I recognize I am stepping out of my comfort zone here, is backing Emmanuel Dennis with the armband. I am not saying he is by any means the clear cut right choice this week, but I will fire off a list of reasons of why he appeals to me...
Deceptive yellow flag - Dennis is currently yellow-flagged in the FPL game and, when you remember how things went for him in Week 21, where he was subbed off at halftime, you would think his health status would be enough to steer people away. But here is the reality - Claudio Ranieri specifically mentioned in a press conference following the FA Cup loss to Leicester that Dennis was rested because he wanted the forward to be ready to play for the upcoming league schedule. Clearly, for a club like Watford, surviving relegation is more important than attempting a deep cup run. So, based on his comments, not only am I confident that Dennis is fine, I am very confident he starts both games of the double (assuming neither are postponed, of course).
Fixtures favored - As already mentioned, Watford do have the best pair of games of any club on a double this week, and, were we talking about a club higher in the table, there would be much more interest around the FPL community to pick a captain playing against Burnley and Newcastle. Admittedly, the Clarets and the Magpies are in the same boat as the Hornets, floundering at the bottom of the league, desperate to collect some points. While the results could go either way, I still feel better about a side who are facing two opponents that they know they need to get results from, and are going to “go for it”. Maybe Watford does the business against one side and puts up a dud against the other, but that may be enough if Dennis can manage more than one goal involvement.
Differential pick - In a week without Mo Salah as an option, and the armband selection being more spread out, I just feel like if ever there was a week to go with a player with a lower captaincy rate, this is the one. My guess is, the worst case scenario is if Ronaldo puts up a Bowen-like score. If he does and Dennis blanks, then that would be a disaster. Otherwise, it feels like a pretty safe moment to take a risk on a lesser-chosen option and not be hurt too badly if the pick doesn’t produce the results one would have hoped.
Simple stat - On a points per game average this season, of all the players who have two games, are fit and play regularly enough to reasonably expect them to start both matches, the highest scorer on that table is Emmanuel Dennis at 5.4 points per game. Here is the rest of that list...
Mount - 5.3
Davinson Sanchez - 5.2
Ronaldo - 5.1
Tielemans - 5.0
Alonso - 4.7
Rudiger - 4.6
Maddison - 4.6
Reguilon - 4.5
Lloris- 4.5
Jorginho- 4.4
Sometimes, you need to go with the simple stats. Dennis tops this list. He has good fixtures on his side. He is rested. He can be a real difference-maker in the ranks if he can produce.
That’s about all I have for Week 22. I appreciate borrowing your eyes for a few minutes as I work my way back to my routine. Good luck to all, and may your arrows be green.