Well this is turning out to be some end of the season huh? It gives the impression of some huge slippery fish that no one seems to be able to grasp. Tottenham were unlucky against Arsenal that’s for sure, I think that the balance of power may have shifted or at the very least, Tottenham’s current form significantly dominated Arsenal’s. And Leicester just seem to be bossing it at the mo, and who can blame them? The title is in their sight and it’s now completely up to them whether they win it or not. What a great place to be in - In charge of your own destiny but with a 5-point buffer. In the words of Morpheus in The Matrix “He’s starting to believe….”.
From a personal point of view, it was a fun week. I managed to score 77 in the official game and just short of 200 in Perfect XI. That puts three of the Rotoworld team inside the top 6 of the Rotoworld league which, you could argue, is how it should be. It also means that I’ve broken into the top 50 of the Perfect XI game and that’s just fine with me!
I’ve been looking around the net this week trying to find some more statistics-based forecasting tools that can help fantasy managers and I’ll give a full run down of what I find over the next few weeks. In the meantime, I’d like to give a shout-out to Florian at www.online-betting.me.uk who’s been very helpful. I’d wholeheartedly recommend checking their site out if you like betting on football and there’s definitely a thing or two on their site that’s worth it for fantasy managers.
So, what’s going on this week? Well the most important thing is that there’s hardly any matches! That’s right – only 12 teams are performing this week for you. This is obviously a very important issue for the Official game because accepted strategy suggests that you will just have to suck up the losses and play who you can. Why? Because you should be saving your wildcard for a double game week to make absolutely sure that you really capitalise on this chance of gaining some ground on your competitors.
Let’s look at the predictor:
Predictor
Well, who would have guessed that Leicester were the standout favourites? Everyone? 73% sounds a bit light for me considering the motivation they must have. Don’t forget that Newcastle are in the relegation zone so they have their own motivation although, let’s be honest, they’re in the relegation zone for a reason.
Next up is Arsenal at home to West Brom. Even though I managed to correctly predict that West Brom would beat Manchester United as part of my Ultimate Betting System, I can’t see lightning striking twice. At home, this should be an easy game for the Gooners.
Stoke face off against Southampton and I can see the home team prevailing. Southampton are the most hit-and-miss team in the league for me and Stoke seem to really have stabilised.
Lastly, Spurs must be worth mentioning away at Villa. The predictor only puts them as 42% favourites but it’s probably far higher than that. As you can see, over the last six games Spurs generally score more goal then their opposition and Villa concede one more than there’s. Easy win for Tottenham to keep their title hopes alive.
Poisson
Another rather bare looking graph for the Poisson this week. There are no stand out games but that shouldn’t surprise many of you. Spurs look to win 1-0. 2-0 or at least draw 1-1. The same scorelines are expected for Leicester vs Newcastle. The Stoke game looks great for a less than 2.5 goals bet whilst you’ll need to keep an eye on the Arsenal game as it wont go ahead if they continue to beat Hull.
