So, what a week. My prediction of a score draw between City and Chelsea came to pass and the betting solution I suggested way back in week 10 returned £270 to a £50 bet. Nice. What’s more, Arsenal then obliged with another 5-0 thrashing so the system can return again this week. I’m not sure I can do it though – whilst the system is based completely on statistics and shouldn’t be second guessed, it leads to betting on the Arsenal/Spurs derby and as a Spurs supporter I just find that really difficult. I’m not saying I definitely won’t do it again but I’m definitely on the fence!
Goalkeepers
Last week I suggested that Robles might finally be worthy of the investment and low and behold, he managed a score of 11 points which for a total cost of £1m is one hell of a return on investment. This week we return to two more traditional choices; Courtois and Hart. City are at home which might well give them the advantage but either of them will make exceptional options. Personally I have Courtois at £6.52m and as I continue to try and retain Costa and Sanchez in the background, I’m going to need every penny I can.
Predictor
So the predictor is throwing up two very unsurprising suggestions; Chelsea and Manchester City. It’s also throwing up that Burnley are very strong at home to West Brom. Whilst I accept that Spurs putting three past them last week won’t have helped, I have a very strong suspicion that both Ings and Boyd, who have lost over £1m each, are great selections for this week.
Poisson
Well it’s interesting that Burnley, Chelsea and Swansea are listed as the most likely to keep a clean sheet with Manchester City just behind with a score of 43%. I can’t really argue with that although I do suspect that Swansea vs Sunderland is going to be a boring and very low scoring game.
I don’t really refer to the final table very often but you’ll note that the top row this week is almost all green. That means that with the exception of Villa at home, the Poisson puts the home team as the favourite in every case, although sometimes not by much. I can at least take solace in the fact that there’s a 3 in 4 chance of Arsenal not winning the derby. In fact, according to this…a bet on Everton to win and Tottenham/draw at 4-1 seems like a very good idea….
See you next week!
