Do you believe what statistics tell you? Don’t.
Whilst I personally think that they are by far the best way of figuring out where to put your fantasy football money, there are some who like to reel off statistics as though they were scripture.
You see, with a little bit of creativity, numbers can be used to tell you almost anything – let’s try an example. What do City, West Ham, Spurs, Stoke, Liverpool and Crystal Palace have in common? Unbelievably they all buck the recognised trend and are more prolific goal scorers when they are away from home. West Ham for example score nearly a goal per game more when they are away then when they face opposition back in London. Does that make City away to Southampton this week a great option? Or Palace away to Swansea a solid investment? Nope. Not at all. It’s just that in the correct hands numbers can be used to prove almost anything.
That means that you have to take everything with a pinch of salt – consider for yourself what’s actually being said and make up your own mind. I was told for example this weekend that Tottenham are always better on the first weekend of the month. There’s no reason why that should be and there’s no reason why you should take it into account.
How’s about this one then? Leicester City score on average 1 goal every 5 away games! Aston Villa score 1 goal every three away games! Those are stats that you can rely on because they have a basis of fact. Of course that leads you to focus on QPR’s and Burnley’s defence this week which takes a braver man than I – do you have the faith to pick Elliot?
Speaking of goalkeepers…
Goalkeepers
Last week was a mixed bag with my preferred (if a little questionable) option of Begovic racking up a negative score – these things happen. My other choice Courtois (who makes an appearance again this week) did quite well so I hope that you were all on the latter player. This week looks like this:
This week we see Courtois, Fabianski and Mignolet – personally, I’ll be sticking to Courtois – better the devil you know.
Predictor
The predictor has been a little off the last two weeks (although it’s still got half of the results right), this week it suggests:
Poisson
The pesky prediction tool pointed me in the direction of Begovic last week as well but it wasn’t all bad – it predicted 2-0 for Chelsea, Everton’s 2-1 win and Newcastle’s 1-0 victory!
