Woo Hoo! Last week makes me finally feel like I might be on to something with a really nice haul of 137 points. Whilst my overall total of 997 is nothing to write home about yet, it does allow me to stay at my benchmark of 100 points per week – well 99.7 but who’s counting?
The biggest positive from the week was dropping Sterling who can’t seem to do anything without the other “S”. The negative was that I changed him to Hazard and then changed him to Ramsey. Oh well, Rome wasn’t built in a day!
So let’s see what the forecasting models have for us this week:
Predictor
Last week the predictor correcting forecasted 6 correct scores, making its average 70% since it started, If I could just predict the three where it would have a problem I’d be extremely happy! I especially like that it predicted the two away wins for Spurs and Southampton considering the Premier Leagues propensity for home wins. Here’s this week’s predictions:
As you can see, there are massively strong games for West Ham and for Southampton although I suspect there is still a little bit of a hangover in the figures from Southampton’s eight at Sunderland. Similarly West Brom and Man Utd have solid chances at home. If you’re looking for an away team to maybe give you a bit of differential, Man City are the obvious choice but the system rates Hull as having an equal probability of success.
Goalkeepers
Last week Courtois caused me some pain despite my good overall score by scoring 1. On the plus side I suspect that over a 3rd of managers felt my pain. His score really just goes to show what happens when a goalkeeper does nothing except let a goal in, even when they win. There’s a lot to be said for those goalies that manage a high degree of saves also! This week’s graph is:
It’s a really varied one this week with a number of viable options. At the top end Hart almost squeezed in and if you’ve got a load of cash spare you could well look to him. The selections though are Forster, Adrian, De Gea and Lloris - the West Ham keeper makes it through by almost as small a margin as Hart was kept out but he’s cheap enough for him to get the benefit of the doubt. I’m quite amazed at just home small the spread is of goalkeeper selections prices this week; 8.12 to 8.67. If you want me to go out on a limb, I’d say Forster is still your safest of bets.
Poisson
The Poisson this week again shows games and scores largely in-line with what we would expect however please bear in mind that by its very nature, it gets more accurate every week that goes by until week 38 when it is completely right. This means that for the start of the season it should be used as a good indicator of the likely score, not a nirvana.
The Poisson backs me up by saying that there’s a 75% chance that Forster will retain his clean sheet and I’m regretting not grabbing him at £3.xm when I suggested it a couple of weeks ago. I have Costa, Sanchez and Aguero as my forward three currently and they’re going to be pretty hard to budge – If I did, the Poisson is indicating that Pelle might well be a good swap for the Arsenal forward.
See you next week.
