So we’re back with the Premier League and facing possibly the worst weekend in fantasy football. We’re playing new games, with newly promoted teams, new formations and with new players – talk about rising to the challenge! It’s doubly difficult for me because as my regular readers will know, I approach things from a statistics standpoint and we don’t have anything resembling relevant and recent data. That’s not to be negative, I’m playing Fantrax, PlayTogga Perfect XI and the normal EPL game this season and this opening confusion gives you a chance to steal a march on your competitors. This week I wanted to touch on the PlayTogga Perfect XI game and my approach for week one.
What team are you hiding under your toga?
Whilst it might be tempting to fill your team up every week with the great and the good of the premier league, it’s actually the ability to find hidden talent that will supply your best chance of success in this game. You’ll note from Galin’s Best XI feature last season that whilst the cream rose to the top by the end of the season, the best performers on any given week could have come from anywhere. Pantillimon, Coates, O’Shea, Long, Anichebe, Zonzi, Cleverly, Shackel, Gomis, Barnes, Sinclair all made ’Best XI’ performers at some point. So how do you pick the differentiators? Or to put it as a cheesy cliché, what’s the difference that’s going to make the difference?
Well the obvious initial question you have to ask yourself is how you are planning on playing the game. Are you going for the season long approach as part of your league or are you just going to try and win the free jersey every week? If you’re going for the season long approach then you should be focused on being the best you can be every week. If you’re going for the weekly approach then you should throw caution to the wind and have an ‘all or nothing’ approach – it doesn’t matter if you lose by an inch or a mile, you’ll still be a loser so be bold and adventurous.
This is a really nice way of visualising exactly where you should be focusing your time! Let’s have a look at the individual positions.
Goalkeepers & Defenders
The first thing you’ll notice from the matrix is that there are substantial points available for clean sheets (6 for a defender and 8 for a goalkeeper). These points are by far the highest that defenders and goalkeepers can make by doing their normal every game tasks (i.e. not attacking). The problem is that if you choose the top four defenders and goalkeeper, then you might need four teams rather than one to keep a clean sheet.
This leads to our first break in strategy. If you’re playing for a season long approach then I suggest you focus on the best performing players. If you just want to win that week then I suggest you go for an ‘all in’ approach. If you select the goalkeeper and defenders from one team then you can be 32 points better off by choosing the team most likely to get a clean sheet. If we consult with the bookies odds we know that Chelsea are favourites in week 1 with 58.1% followed by Arsenal at 54.6%. This means though that you’ll either be miles ahead or miles behind depending on whether you’re right of not.
It will be up to you to which approach you prefer – you could argue of course that even if you’re playing a season long strategy that these defences are still good choices.
If you’re looking for individual picks then you need to focus on attacking defenders with a strong chance of keeping clean sheets. Personally I like the ‘Creating Chances’ statistic for this as it focuses on players who get themselves in the right position to either shoot or assist.
Last season the top players were Baines, Trippier, Ivanovic, Van Aanholt, Coleman and Cresswell. These defenders created an amazing 272 chances between them, which in turn led to 46 shots on target, 29 assists and 11 goals. Looking at the games this week, I would suggest Baines, Trippier, Ivanovic, Janmaat, and Coleman are worthy of closer examination.
Forwards and Midfielders
If you look at the scoring matrix there are a range of negative scores possible; yellow cards, red cards, own goals etc. Whilst it might be possible to avoid players who are traditionally a little ‘feisty’, like Joey Barton, most players cause these negative points by accident. You’re far better to concentrate your efforts on predicting which players will strive to do the right things and hope that they counteract any unfortunate incidents. Unless you have a crystal ball handy of course.
That leads us back again to goals, assists, chances created and shots on target. Sure, there are the standard names you’d expect to see in this list like Aguero and Kane but in the last six weeks of the past season this list included Ulloa, Diouf, Gomis and Berahino. Where do you start? Consistency is, as always, the order of the day. I personally like the look of Hazard, Silva, Fabragas, Cazorla, Sterling, Ozil, Aguero, Kane, Giroud and Pelle (that’s not in order). If you’re interested, that little group managed to create a whopping 640 chances last season, leading to 330 shots on target, 74 assists and 121 goals! Nice!
You’ll note that this weeks coloumn is a little less stats based than normal but rest assured more is defnitely on the way. If you want to see my team when it’s finished then follow my twitter account @funtasyfootball.
Good luck and I’ll see you next week.
