Perhaps this is Arsenal’s best bet this season. On a weekend when they didn’t play and following their shocking elimination from the Europa League at the round of 32 stage, they had an excellent weekend. How, exactly, did everything turn up Arsenal? Let’s see…
Invincibles Day
You could argue that this one could be viewed in two ways. The obvious way was Liverpool losing their first Premier League match of the season and ensuring that Arsenal will retain the title as the only side in the modern era to make it through an English top flight campaign undefeated. Surely, wherever they are, Arsene Wenger and the players from that club took a quiet sip of champagne and celebrated Liverpool’s stumble. The fact that even this Liverpool squad, as exceptional and likely soon-to-be-record-breaking as they are, couldn’t equal the Gunners’ accomplishment underscores how difficult it is to go through a season undefeated.
This isn’t to take anything away from this edition of the Reds. We should appreciate, both now and when they eventually break the points record for a title winner, the combination of skill and determination that they possess. They are good enough that until Troy Deeney’s goal went in everyone watching was still not certain that they didn’t have a dramatic comeback in them.
Because Jurgen Klopp is such a loveable character and there are no Roy Keane-types of characters in the squad, this group doesn’t have the same Darth Vader/Empire vIbe that Sir Alex Ferguson’s Manchester United did at their height. That shouldn’t detract from the fact that they are just as frightening as their bitter rivals of yesteryear to teams to dare to take a lead on them. It didn’t work out yesterday but the numbers are staggering and, whether we like them or not, we should certainly tip our hats to these historic champions.
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Sarr Downside
Back to our Arsenal theme, my one depressing realization over the weekend was related to Watford’s hero of the match Ismaila Sarr. After showing his potential against the Gunners in their Europa League knockout match-up last season, he was frequently linked with a move to the Emirates. The Gunners spent crazy money (£72m) on Nicolas Pepe rather than match the reported £40m that Watford paid for Sarr.
I understand that Pepe has been playing better recently but Sarr is looking like a real, ahem, star. His early season was interrupted by injury but since Nigel Pearson was appointed in early December the Hornets have lost only once – against Liverpool at Anfield – when Sarr has started. You want some eye-popping splits?
With Sarr Starting since December 14th – W5 D2 L1 GF14 GA4
Without Sarr Starting since December 14th – W0 D1 L3 GF 4 GA9
Without Sarr Starting pre-December 14th – W1 D5 L6 GF7 GA23
You could easily write off the pre-December 14th results to the managerial chaos or other injuries and there were a few starts pre-December 14th where Sarr didn’t help influence results in Watford’s favor. Still, If you look at the side that they’ve been under Pearson and with Sarr, they’re solidly mid-table or better including wins over Liverpool and Wolves and a draw with Sheffield United. Without Sarr, they’re abject regardless of manager.
Think Arsenal might look better with Sarr and £32m to spend elsewhere (a center back or attacking midfielder) or with Pepe? Not a condemnation of Pepe (who, I think, will be very good), just a frustration with poor allocation of resources on a tight budget.
Dropped Points
Elsewhere in the Premier League, the results went Arsenal’s way as Leicester City, Chelsea, Spurs, and Manchester United all dropped points while the Gunners rested. Chelsea and Manchester United at least picked up a point each while Spurs and the Foxes got nothing for their weekend’s efforts. As the clubs ahead of the Gunners continue to act like they aren’t that interested in playing in the Champions League next season, the opportunity presents itself for the Gunners to at least make a run at it if they can string a few results together.
Henry Victorious
Thierry Henry won his managerial debut in Major League Soccer as Montreal beat New England 2-1 to come from a goal down. Henry is also highly likely to be honored in March when the Premier League enshrines its first two Hall of Famers. The Premier League era certainly has a lot of great candidates – and we’ll get to a column on that later this week – but it seems hard to imagine that Alan Shearer and Henry won’t be the first two in.
That’s a pretty good weekend. Maybe Arsenal should pursue a strategy of not playing more often and let the positive headlines take care of themselves.
The Title Race
This section just went from being very uninteresting to being even less interesting as the Reds don’t have Invincible status to chase down the stretch. Now we’re just left
The Big Surprise
We already covered the biggest surprise of the weekend with Watford beating Liverpool but Norwich City beating Leicester City 1-0 on Friday would have been a headline-level shocker if the Hornets hadn’t pushed them quickly from the news cycle. Norwich City have been playing better of late but it hasn’t translated to results. The Foxes, on the other hand, have been pretty rotten since the calendar has turned to 2020. After a comprehensive 3-0 win over Newcastle on New Years Day, it has mostly been bad news for Brendan Rodgers’ side. They are W1 D2 L4 since beating the Magpies and while losing to Manchester City and drawing with Wolves and Chelsea aren’t bad results, losses to Burnley, Southampton, Aston Villa, and Norwich City are. With Jamie Vardy picking up another injury, the signs aren’t great. At least Wilfried Ndidi made a substitute appearance in the latest loss.
The Weekly Arsenal
Losing at the death to Olympiacos is the first real bump in the road for Arsenal under Mikel Arteta. It was easy enough to attribute the draws early in his tenure to the process of learning the Spaniard’s system and of Arteta figuring out how best to get results from his side. After a string of positive results, including the win in Athens, a home rematch with an away goal to the good seemed like a relative easy task for the Gunners. Apparently not. It will be fascinating to see how his side react against Portsmouth in the FA Cup match-up today and then at the weekend when their Premier League schedule resumes. As stated above, the teams in front of them are leaving the door wide open for a run at the Champions League places, whether the Gunners have it in them to take advantage is another question altogether.
One other random question, what happened to Gabriel Martinelli? He went from the next big thing in Europe with Real Madrid supposedly interested after a great couple of weeks to being an unused substitute in the romp over Newcastle and not even being in the squad against Everton. He started the first leg against Olympiacos and came on as a sub in the second but not until the 105th minute. As the fourth substitute, he was clearly not in Arteta’s plan. Quite a fall from “next big thing” to “marginal” over the course of a couple of weeks.
My Other Favorites
What seems more probable based on what we’ve seen recently is that Wolves are very much eager to take advantage of the chaos at the top of the table. After coming from behind twice against Spurs to get a key victory at Tottenham Stadium, Nuno Espirito Santo’s side are even on points with 5th place Manchester United. Wolves also have a fairly easy upcoming schedule with Brighton, @West Ham, Bournemouth, and @Aston Villa the next four. That is both an invitation to consolidate a Champions League place as well as a siren’s call to fantasy managers to load up on the likes of Jimenez, Jota, Doherty, and/or Patricio.
Fantasy Ups and Downs
With so many top teams struggling, it is reasonable to wonder where the fantasy value is going to come from over the next couple of months.
Stock Down – David De Gea’s howler was the source of Everton’s only goal although it could be argued that Dominic Calvert-Lewin’s deflected shot late should have counted as well. Either way, not good. Throw in the Manchester Derby, @Tottenham, and Sheffield United as the Red Devils’ next three matches before a manageable stretch in April and you’re looking a declining fantasy stock.
Stock Up – It wasn’t Rui Patrício’s weekend given the goal-fest at the Tottenham Stadium but see above for Wolves’ Charmin-soft upcoming schedule as all the reason you need to think about investing.
Stock Down – This could apply to anyone in the Spurs defense given their overall decline but the long-standing partnership of Jan Vertonghen and Toby Alderweireld (I saw them play a pre-season friendly against DC United for Ajax what seems like 100 years ago even if it was only 9 years ago, they’d been working together at the Amsterdam Arena for three seasons already at that point), appears to have crumbled quickly. Both were benched by José Mourinho for the loss against Wolves and while the results didn’t improve, it feels likely that Mourinho will be switching his options in and out for the rest of the season looking for a combination that might keep the goals out.
Stock Up – Marcos Alonso was my Waiver Wire Priority in defense in last Monday’s column and his stock continues to soar as his brace helped the Blues make up for a sputtering attacking unit. Look for Lampard to persist with his wingback-based alignment as Alonso and James are at the heart of what little is going well for Chelsea right now.
Stock Down – Whether you list him as a forward or a midfielder, Gerard Deulofeu’s injury (likely an ACL tear according to early reports) is a bad one. Deulofeu hasn’t been great this season but with Ismaila Sarr coming back, there was hope for a revival that will not happen. Roberto Pereyra’s value does increase though.
Stock Up – Michail Antonio had the better fantasy weekend with a goal and an assist but Pablo Fornals has more of the look of sustainable fantasy production. With a goal and two assists over his past two matches, he may have finally found his niche at the London Stadium.
Stock Down – After a blistering middle of the season – from Weeks 7-22 he had 13 goals – Danny Ings has cooled significantly with only one in his past six. This wouldn’t be much of a concern if Ings didn’t have a such a track record with leg injuries. There has to be at least some concern that Ings, who didn’t start in a winnable match over the weekend, is running out of gas. He could only manage 24 matches last season and has already hit 26 in this campaign. He hasn’t gone over 30 since his final season at Burnley (2014-15).
Stock Up – There are a few arrows up after this weekend including Sebastian Haller, Joshua King, and Dominic Calvert-Lewin but for me, Troy Deeney should be considered an undervalued commodity. If you take any stock in the statistics associated with Ismaila Sarr from the intro, it is reasonable that Deeney is going to be the beneficiary of some of that goodness as he was for Watford’s third on Saturday. So long as Sarr stays healthy, look for Deeney to thrive.
The European Places
It continues to be a mess at the top. I’m hard-pressed to generate much excitement for any of the contenders for the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th Champions League places. Wolves certainly look to be in great form and have a favorable run-in. With Leicester City coming back to the pack it isn’t impossible to see Wolves finishing as high as the 2nd Champions League spot although the 3rd (they’re three points back of Chelsea currently) or 4th (they’re even with Manchester United who have a much tougher schedule) seems much more likely. If Liverpool, Leicester City, and Wolves are currently the best-positioned then the only remaining question is who from Chelsea, Manchester United, Spurs, Sheffield United, Burnley, Arsenal, and Everton can get hot. I really don’t like what I’ve seen at Spurs and the injury excuse is just too convenient. I still believe in Chelsea’s talent while Arsenal, Everton, Burnley, and Sheffield United are going to draw a few too many matches to make up the ground on the Blues.
Liverpool
Leicester City
Wolves
Chelsea
Sheffield United
Arsenal
Relegation
It was quite the weekend at the bottom of the table with Norwich City, Watford, and West Ham all winning while Bournemouth picked up a point. I’m going to bet on Sarr staying healthy and Watford escaping based on their form with him in the line-up. That leaves me with the following group in the relegation zone:
Brighton
Aston Villa
Norwich City
Waiver Wire Priorities
Goalkeeper – I suspect that Rui Patrício isn’t available but Bernd Leno is after a weekend of inactivity in the league then he should be your choice ahead of a stretch of winnable matches. Martin Dubrovka is the logical alternative if neither Patricio nor Leno are available in your league.
Defender – Assuming that Marcos Alonso got gobbled up you should be looking at Ruben Vinagre who will likely be subbing in for Jonny for at least some of Wolves stretch of favorable match-ups. Vinagre isn’t a fantastic attacking option but he’s solid enough and there should be a few clean sheet opportunities over the next month.
Midfielder – We haven’t talked much about Newcastle’s upcoming stretch but if they’re going to make a run it’s going to happen over their next five matches - @Southampton, Sheffield United, Aston Villa, @Bournemouth, and West Ham – if Allan Saint-Maximin gets healthy for the trip to the south coast then he’s an interesting option over that course of matches.
Forward – I mentioned Troy Deeney in the Stock Up section and with a passable run of matches coming up - @Palace, Leicester City, @Burnley, and Southampton – you can see the Hornets captain being a productive third forward in March.
What’s Next?
We’re back to a full ten match schedule for Week 29. Liverpool (vs Bournemouth and angry), Arsenal (vs West Ham), Sheffield United (vs Norwich City), Wolves (vs Brighton), and Leicester City (vs Aston Villa) are all going to be strong home favorites even if confidence in the Foxes should be shaken. The Manchester Derby at Old Trafford is the headliner while Chelsea vs Everton provides a fascinating undercard for Sunday’s main event. Burnley vs Spurs at Turf Moor in Saturday’s late match is also a fascinating match-up of form against reputation and talent.
As always, enjoy the matches and good luck with your waiver claims.
