I’m trying something new this season. Rather than starting from scratch with rankings, I’m going to start with each player’s performance last season and analyze what may change that could move the player’s performance up or down. Clearly, injury is always a potential but unless a player has a history of chronic injuries (see Wilshere, Jack or Oxlade-Chamberlain, Alex), I’m not going to mention that here as it is similar for all. Ultimately, this is about ability increasing or decreasing with age and the opportunity for more or fewer minutes compared to last season.
We start with the position you should be drafting last in fantasy leagues, goalkeeper. In an 8-team league the difference between the worst starter last season (Mat Ryan at 135 points) and the best (Nick Pope at 170) is less than one point per match over a 38-match season. Just by way of comparison, there was a similar difference between the top overall defender (Trent Alexander-Arnold and the second best defender Andrew Robertson). In other words, when allocating resources, there are generally a lot better uses of draft picks than picking a goalkeeper early.
With the introduction out of the way, here is a review of the top 16 goalkeepers (enough to populate all roster spots in an 8-team league) and some notes on some other options.
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Nick Pope, Burnley (points last season = 170; minutes last season = 3420) – Burnley just keep doing what they do with above average goalkeeping that includes more than their share of clean sheets and saves. This should see Pope maintain his value as one of the couple top goalkeepers in the PL.com fantasy format.
Dean Henderson, Manchester United (160; 3240) – With Henderson seemingly returning to Old Trafford to be an overqualified back-up to David De Gea his fantasy value goes from “one of the bargains of last season” to “negligible”. In drafting him you’d be hoping he gets sold or loaned out again. With Sheffield United seemingly out of the running, it seems like the situation would be a downgrade if it does come off.
Kasper Schmeichel, Leicester City (156; 3420) – What you think about Schmeichel’s next season depends on which Leicester City team you think we’ll be getting this season, the scorching hot team that seemed destined for the Champions League or the one that crashed and ended up in the Europa League instead. I tend to think they’ll be closer to the former than the latter once healthy and Schmeichel will be a top five or six goalkeeper.
Rui Patrício, Wolves (153; 3420) – Holding steady as Wolves continue to be tough to break down under Nuno Espirito Santo.
David De Gea, Manchester United (143; 3420) – After a(nother) disappointing campaign, De Gea isn’t necessarily the surefire starter at Old Trafford. I suspect that he’ll get the majority of the minutes in the league but the presence of Dean Henderson allows for the potential that he’ll be benched if he encounters another rough patch. Even if he only drops 10% of his playing time that represents a drop from starter quality in an 8-team league to reserve. Perhaps the best strategy here is to try to draft both De Gea and Henderson and just trust that United will net you more than your share of clean sheets.
Martin Dubravka, Newcastle United (143; 3420) – The big opportunity here was for the Magpies to be taken over and have massive funds invested into the squad. If the takeover does happen with a different group, it seems unlikely that it will happen in time for the summer window so expect more of the same from Steve Bruce’s side which means Dubravka is unexciting but certainly a credible low-end starter/high-end reserve.
Vincente Guaita, Crystal Palace (137; 3150) – The direction Palace were headed at the end of the season certainly isn’t promising. As of this writing, nothing of significance has been done to change things up at Selhurst Park so my inclination would be to see Guaita as more likely to see his fantasy value decline. He may have finished last season as being a worthy starter but I would consider him a mediocre reserve heading into next season.
Mat Ryan, Brighton (135; 3420) – This is still a bottom-half team but there seems to be some slight positive momentum here with a solid defense and resources seemingly available to improve the attack. Because the club is relatively unglamorous, I expect Ryan to be a great bargain in drafts will end up as a credible starter available with the reserves.
Ederson, Manchester City (133; 3071) – It feels like the crumbling of Pep’s first core City side is starting. Yes, they’ll likely have two new center backs before the season kicks off but it just feels like there is some rot here. If Ederson can’t finish in the top 8 in a season when his club finished 2nd in the league, I’d be inclined to let someone else overdraft him.
Aaron Ramsdale, Sheffield United (126; 3330) – I’m a believer that most goalkeepers are more a product of their environment than a massive difference in pure talent. Give me Ramsdale in the environment that saw Henderson thrive last season and I think he’ll be a top five goalkeeper. Great potential value.
Alisson, Liverpool (122; 2543) – The reason to include “minutes played” next to each player in this analysis. The points total wasn’t great but if you add in the extra 10 matches that he missed last campaign then you end up with the top goalkeeper which is where he should be drafted.
Jordan Pickford, Everton (117; 3420) – With a full off-season under a good manager in Carlo Ancelotti, you have to at least think there’s a chance that the Toffees and Pickford both rebound. That said, I wouldn’t count on him to be anything more than a reserve with some upside. He also comes with the downside that Everton have been rumored to be looking for alternatives.
Bernd Leno, Arsenal (114; 2649) – I like Arsenal to improve significantly on their clean sheet total this coming season. Arsenal-red-colored glasses? Perhaps but Mikel Arteta has improved the approach and attitude and there is more talent at center back on the way. The only thing that keeps Leno out of my top eight is the threat of either a job-share or being supplanted by Emi Martínez who was excellent after taking over after Leno’s injury. If one Arsenal goalkeeper is the clear starter I would put them in the 6th-8th overall range.
Alex McCarthy, Southampton (104; 2520) – The formula for a top goalkeeper in fantasy tends to look like Nick Pope. Plays for an above-average mid-table side that plays a defensive style but still absorbs enough shots to get points for saves and/or the occasional bonus points too. Southampton clicked down the stretch and McCarthy assumed the fulltime job. If his minutes go toward 3200 or beyond and the Saints improve even marginally we could be looking at a season similar to what Schmeichel or Patricio did this season. I am certain I’m going to end up with McCarthy in many of my leagues because he should be available late and, for me, has a good chance of finishing as a top four overall goalkeeper.
Hugo Lloris, Tottenham (98; 1808) – Lloris had an injury-plagued campaign that held his fantasy production down. There was also the ugly stretch as Mauricio Pochettino’s reign came to an ugly end. Given the form Spurs showed late, it isn’t unreasonable to think that Lloris is a great value play later in drafts. Even with all of the mitigating circumstances he was on pace for a top four finish based on points/minute. He should get the minutes this season to translate into a starting-worthy option.
Kepa Arrizabalaga, Chelsea (90; 2970) – His draft stock is almost non-existent as the Blues look to replace him. The Chelsea starting goalkeeper could be a worthy acquisition if they get a new one and partner him up with at least one new center back. With all of that business yet to be accomplished there isn’t much to recommend investing here.
Lucasz Fabianski, West Ham (83; 2117) – Fabianski has typically been an excellent fantasy goalkeeper but injury and West Ham’s rotten season kept him down. The Hammers are likely to be better if they can keep Declan Rice from moving back to Stamford Bridge and Fabianski should be the regular starter again. Expect him to finish in the 6-10 range in fantasy production among goalkeepers in the upcoming campaign.
As you can see, there are more goalkeepers that could easily finish in the top five in fantasy points than there are starting spots in an 8-team league. Given health you could talk yourself into Pope, Schmeichel, Patricio, De Gea, Dubravka, Guaita, Ryan, Alisson, Ramsdale, Leno, and McCarthy. Throw in a rebound from Ederson, Chelsea bringing in a new starter, and the newly promoted goalkeepers (usually good for one breakout fantasy option between the three) and you see that there just isn’t a lot of reason to dive in on a goalkeeper until late in your draft. In my latest mock draft I picked up Ramsdale in the 14th round and McCarthy in the 15th and I’m confident that at least one of the two will finish less than a point/match off of the top GK scorer (presumably Alisson) over the course of the season.
