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Welcome to the JaguarDFS MMA Breakdown for this Saturday’s UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Strickland. Every week, Louis will be going over his top UFC DFS selections. The analysis and research done for this article is specifically geared towards daily fantasy success, not conventional gambling. For example, a fighter could be heavily favored but may not be in a position to reach daily fantasy point value. This upcoming Saturday (7/31) we have an 11-fight card. DraftKings has a $100,000 first-place prize for their $500,000 “MMA Throwdown” while FanDuel has $10,000 going to first place in their “UFC Octagon” GPP tournament. There’s no time to waste, let’s get started.
Phil Rowe DK: $7,400 FD: $14 (+128) vs. Orion Cosce DK: $8,800 FD: $18 (-150)
Rowe is four inches taller than Cosce and carries a 9.5-inch reach advantage. Rowe is averaging 1.19 takedowns per fight at a 33% accuracy rate. Here’s the thing, Orion has a 70% defensive takedown rate. He’s averaging 1.02 takedowns himself at a 100% accuracy rate. If Cosce can keep this fight standing, he’s averaging 4.56 significant strikes per minute at a 62% accuracy rate. This fight is much closer than DFS salaries would entail but give me Orion Cosce here.
My Pick
Orion Cosce
Ashley Yoder DK: $8400, FD: $17 (-150) vs. Jinh Yu Frey DK: $7,800 FD: $14 (+120)
This fight is - 420 to go over 2.5 rounds. When a fight is likely to go the distance, it’s important to look at both fighters’ volume. Frey is averaging 1.79 significant strikes per minute at a 40% accuracy rate. On the flipside, Yoder is averaging 2.75 significant strikes landed per minute. Yoder defends takedowns at a 68% rate while averaging .7 submission attempts per fight. Frey has a slightly better ground game averaging 1.06 takedowns per fight with 83% takedown defense. Considering her advantages on the mat, Frey is going to be my selection here. This fight is currently -360 to go to decision. Vegas has this fight to go the distance (or at least 2.5 rounds). I don’t expect either fighter to score particularly high but I do like the underdog for daily fantasy. Considering her low salary of $7,800 she becomes a viable DFS investment. In her three-round win over De Paula (who is also fighting tonight), she totaled 72 DKFP at a salary of $7,400. Now, with a salary of $7,800, reaching value could be a tough task but I do expect her to win this fight (likely by decision). This card is difficult because many of these fighters are not going to score well daily fantasy-wise. Understand that, and try to get creative by investing in as many “sure” fighters as possible even if that means taking a loss from a low-priced fighter who is still expected to score well.
My Pick
Jinh Yu Frey [[ad:athena]]
Kai Kamaka DK: $8,200 FD: $15 (-120) vs. Danny Chavez DK: $8,000 FD: $14 (-105)
Chavez is coming off of his first loss against Jared Gordon. He should be looking for takedowns. In his only UFC win, he notched four takedowns with 2 + minutes of control time. He averages 2.50 takedowns per fight at a 100 % accuracy rate. His takedown defense is solid as well at 84 %. Kamaka defends takedowns at just a 47% rate. Easy path for Chavez. $8,000 on DK & 14$ on FanDuel, lock him in!
My Pick
Danny Chavez
Rafa Garcia DK: 9,500 FD: $23 (-325) vs. Chris Gruetzemacher DK: $`6,700 FD: $8 (+240)
This fight is currently at +100 to go under 1.5 rounds. In my opinion, despite a -105 fight to decision odds, I believe a decision here is unlikely. This means you should be investing in one side of this matchup. Garcia is the heavy favorite and for good reason. Vegas has a first-round submission at +450 and a first-round KO/TKO is +700. Garcia has a high salary of $9,500 but on an expectedly low-scoring slate, he is a fighter that you will need to be invested in. Pairing Garcia and Stolze can be a solid strategy. Garcia has a 2-inch reach advantage. Gruetzemacher is throwing 7.02 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy rate of 62%. Garcia has a 54% striking defense rate while maintaining a 100% defense of takedown rate. Garcia is averaging 3.47 significant strikes landed per minute. When you look at Gruetzemachers stats they seem solid but he has lost three of his last four fights by submission and one by TKO. Despite his high volume for short spurts, Gruetzemacher is in an extremely tough matchup tonight. Even with a salary of $6,700, I don’t think the value is there. Full fade on Gruetzemacher.
My Pick
Rafa Garcia
Melsik Baghdasaryan DK: $8,600 FD: $17 (-145) vs. Collin Angli DK: $7,600 FD: $13 (+115)
Baghdasaryan is averaging 6.80 significant strikes landed per minute at a 64% accuracy rate. His striking defense is at 53% but more impressively his take-down defense is at 75%. He’ll match up against Collin Angli who has a 5.87 significant strike average but typically gets things done on the mat averaging 3.00 takedowns per fight at an accuracy rate of 75%. His take-down defense is impressive as well. Considering both fighters have impressive takedown defense. I expect this fight to stay standing. With a significantly better significant strike average, give me Baghdasaryan at a salary of $8,600. This is one of the fights that I believe will score well. Melsik is currently -145 to win this bout with -115 odds to go to decision. Baghdasaryan should be able to throw more significant strikes with more power while defending takedowns. Give me Melsik Baghdasaryan tonight.
My Pick
Melsik Baghdasaryan
Jason Witt DK: $6,600 FD: $9 (+215) vs. Bryan Barberena DK: $9,600 FD: $22 (-280)
Barberena should be one of the most rostered fighters on this card and comes in as the second-largest favorite on today’s slate at -270. I wouldn’t completely write off Jason Witt but considering he’s landing 2.30 less significant strikes per minute than Barberena (and does not have his typical takedown advantage) this is going to be a tough ask for Jason Witt. With an average of 3.65 takedowns per five at a 50% accuracy rate. He’s averaging 1.83 submission attempts per fight. Barberena has a 60% defense of takedown rate with .5 submission attempts per fight. This is not a good match-up for Witt. Understand though that if you roster Barberena, you’ll likely be doing so with 60% of the field. If Witt is able to successfully take down Barberena, he will have a shot. Not a complete fade for Witt but for cash game purposes Barberena is your guy.
My Pick
Bryan Barberena
Ryan Benoit DK: $8,300 FD: $15 (-140) vs. Zarrukh Adashev DK: $7,900 FD: $14 (+112)
Ryan Benoit is coming off of two decision losses, one in 2020 and in 2019. At a salary of $8,300, he’s averaging 41.4 DK FPPF. This is yet another low-scoring fight on today’s slate. At a salary of $8,300 on DraftKings, Benoit is simply not worth his price. Even in a win, he’s only reaching a ceiling of 97 DK FP and a floor of 58 DK FP. This is going to be a low-scoring UFC DFS slate. Benoit is averaging 2.95 significant strikes landed per minute at a 41% accuracy rate. His takedown defense is solid at 70% but his takedown offense is pretty much non-existent. Adashev isn’t much better scoring-wise. In two losses since 2020, he’s only totaled 12 fantasy points. Obviously, we have yet to see him in a win, but with just 1.93 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy rate of 23%, that’s just not going to do it for me. His salary is still high at $7,900 making this another DFS fight fade. Despite this fights’ current odds at -160 to last more than 2.5 rounds, I highly doubt they reach value for DFS purposes. Benoit wins but try and avoid this fight for your daily fantasy lineups.
My Pick
Ryan Benoit
Niklas Stolze DK: $7,000 FD: $20 (-155) vs. Jared Gooden DK: $6,800 FD: $11 (+125)
Stolze is my upset pick of the day. Coming off of a 2020 loss over three rounds to Emeev, I fully expect him to come out with a bang. Stoltz was originally slated to fight Mounir Lazzez. He was the underdog in this fight and is currently priced as such. He will now be fighting Jared Gooden. 80% of the field is expected to invest in either Stolze or Gooden. Because of the change in matchup, both of these fighters are at ridiculously valuable salaries. This is no secret in the DFS community. The majority of your contest will be investing in one of these two fighters. If this fight had a chance of not scoring well, I would suggest a complete fight fade simply because avoiding exposure would be very lucrative (assuming this matchup doesn’t score). With that said, I do believe this fight ends quickly and one fighter will score very well at low salaries on Draftkings and FanDuel. This fight is currently +120 to end in under 2.5 rounds. Invest in one side of this fight. For me, Stolze has the better matchup and camp.
My Pick
Niklas Stolze
Cheyanne Buys DK: $8,900 FD: $20 (-155) vs. Gloria de Paula DK: $7,300 FD: $11 (+140)
Gloria De Paula has a 3.5-inch reach advantage but averages roughly .8 less significant strikes per minute than her opponent Buys. Buys is coming off of a three-round loss by decision to Montserrat Conejo. Gloria is coming off of a three-round loss by decision to Jinh Yu Frey, who is also fighting tonight. De Paula is averaging 3.33 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy rate of 54%. Her take-down defense is solid at 71% and defends strikes at a 70% rate. Buys’ stats are slightly higher in the striking department as she’s averaging 4.10 significant strikes landed per minute at a 53% accuracy rate. Her striking defense is not as good at 65% but her takedown game is non-existent at the moment. Give me the underdog here in Gloria de Paula for conventional gambling purposes but for DFS, this is another potentially low-scoring fight. At -385 to go over 2.5 rounds, Vegas is expecting this fight to go the distance. Both fighters will need to throw heavy volume to pay off at their current salaries. Proceed with caution.
My Pick
Gloria de Paula
Kyung Ho Kang DK: $8,500 FD: $16 (-130) vs. Rani Yahya DK: $7,700 FD: $14 (+105)
Kang comes into this fight on a three-fight winning streak but he has not fought since 2019. The layover is a concern but if you take that out of the equation, it’s a pretty simple decision. Kang is my call. Prior to his layoff, Kang averaged 2.53 takedowns per fight at a 59% accuracy rate. His takedown defense is at 71% and he has a solid submission game, averaging 1.1 submission attempts per fight. Kang averages 2.52 significant strikes landed per minute and has solid power. Kang also exhibits a 58% rate defending strikes. Yahya on the other hand comes into this fight with a 2.89 takedown average but has poor takedown defense at only 24%. He’s averaging 2.0 submission attempts per fight. Rani Yahya is averaging just 1.57 significant strikes landed per minute at a 37% accuracy rate. It’s obvious that Yahya prefers this fight on the mat but even if it gets their Kang is equally as proficient. Don’t be surprised to see Kang go for the takedown. This fight is currently -170 to go over 2.5 rounds. Both of these men are very durable but I have this fight ending sooner than general consensus.
My Pick
Kyung Ho Kang
Uriah Hall DK: $6,900 FD: $16 (+165) vs. Sean Strickland DK: $9,300 FD: $22 (-210)
Both fighters come into this main event on four-fight win streaks. Hall is now 35 years old and will be on his way to a title fight if he can get past Strickland. With that said, I will be firmly locked in on Strickland tonight. Hall carries extremely heavy hands. A knockout for either side is very possible. Strickland‘s wrestling is the X-factor here. If for some reason Hall catches him, I expect Strickland to take this fight to the mat. If Hall cannot tag him, Strickland also has the power to end Hall’s night quickly. Strickland defends takedowns at an 82% rate with a 1.14 takedown average. Hall defends takedowns at a 69% rate but as I said, he’ll be hunting the knockout. For DFS purposes, this is a fight that you must have exposure to one way or the other. Considering Strickland has two paths to victory, give me Strickland tonight with 15% hedge exposure to Uriah Hall. This should be an amazing fight. There’s more than enough value on this slate to be able to afford Strickland (and obviously Hall).
My Pick
Sean Strickland
POSTPONEMENTS
Ronnie Lawrence DK: $8,700 FD: $19 (-155) vs. Trevin Jones DK: $7,500 FD: $13 (+125)
PPD
Wu Yanan DK: $7,100 FD: $10 (+200) vs. Nicco Montano DK: $9,100 FD: $21 (-260)
PPD
