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Welcome to the JaguarDFS MMA Breakdown for this Saturday’s UFC 265: Lewis vs. Gane. Every week, Louis will be going over his top UFC DFS selections. The analysis and research done for this article is specifically geared towards daily fantasy success, not conventional gambling. For example, a fighter could be heavily favored but may not be in a position to reach daily fantasy point value. This upcoming Saturday (8/1) we have a 13-fight card. DraftKings has a $200,000 first-place prize for their MMA GPP Throwdown while FanDuel has $40,000 going to first place in their UFC GPP Octagon tournament. There’s no time to waste, let’s get started.
Johnny Munoz DK: $9,100 FD: $22 (-300) vs. Jamey Simmons DK: $7,000 FD: $9 (+230)
Munoz is coming off of a decision loss to Nate Maness approximately one year ago. Simmons is coming off of a first-round knockout loss to Giga Chikadze. Munoz enters this fight with a 3-inch height advantage and a one-inch reach advantage. This bout is currently +140 to go the distance and -190 ITD. Considering both fighters are coming off of debut losses, I expect the first round to start slowly. Both fighters are going to pick their spots properly and patiently. This will be a meticulous, strategic matchup to start tonight’s card. Munoz is a heavy favorite, but Simmons is a live dog. I will not be investing in too much of this fight for DFS purposes. If it does go to decision, I couldn’t see both fighters accumulating 50 to 60 significant strikes with a takedown. At a salary of $9,100, I do not expect Munoz to reach value. Due to this, Simmons is my play by default. At a salary of $7,000 on Draftkings, start your night off on the best note possible by potentially hitting on a low-priced, low-owned Jamey Simmons as opposed to barely reaching value by investing in Munoz at a salary of $9,100. Fade or dog here!
My Pick
Jamey Simmons
Victoria Leonardo DK: $7,400 FD: $15 (-104) vs Melissa Gatto DK: $8,800 FD: $14 (-125)
Oddsmakers have this fight at +110 to go the distance and -150 to end inside the distance. The odds to last over 2.5 rounds have risen to -120. I’m expecting this matchup to go to a decision. Leonardo is at a 5-inch reach disadvantage but both fighters stand 5’5. With a salary of $8,800 and considering her money line is hovering around -125, I simply cannot justify including Gatto in your player pool. As a leverage play, I guess you can invest in a small percentage of the overpriced Gatto but for the most part I want no part of this fight. We have some amazing guaranteed spots on his card. Over exposing yourself to some of these prelim fights could be a big mistake this week. For conventional gambling purposes, give me Melissa Gatto. Her reach and speed could very well be the advantage needed to get this the win but as I said, for DFS purposes, there are smarter fights to invest in.
My Pick
Melissa Gatto[[ad:athena]]
Miles Johns DK: $8,900 FD: $19 (-210) vs. Anderson Dos Santos DK: $7,300 FD: $11 (+165)
Considering this fights’ total rounds odd has now reached -195 for over 2.5 rounds, volume is my main concern. Assuming a fight goes to decision, the next question you must always ask yourself is, who throws more volume? Miles John’s throws 3.33 significant strikes landed per minute. Compared to Dos Santos’s 2.66 significant strikes landed per minute, Johns has the advantage in this category. In terms of takedowns, John’s is averaging 1.21 takedowns per fight while Dos Santos is averaging 1.30 takedowns per fight. Here’s the X-Factor though. Johns defends takedowns at an 87% rate while Dos Santos defends takedowns at a 66% rate. This is the difference in the fight for me. Johns is my pick here and at a salary of $8,900 you may see some DFS players avoid him for their lineups. Why? Like I said before, there are many viable options in the $8,000 salary range. Investing in an $8,900 fighter who is likely to go to a decision is not an ideal way to start your lineup. With that said, Johns is capable of scoring 100+ DKFP, even in a decision win. I will be investing in Johns for my main GPP lineup tonight.
My Pick
Miles Johns
Manel Kape DK: $9,000, FD: $20 (-200) vs. Ode Osbourn DK: $7,200 FD: $11 (+160)
Kape is still looking for his first UFC victory. In his first two UFC fights, he was on the losing end of three-round decisions. Accumulating only 110 combined significant strikes throughout his first two fights, I expect Kape to be very motivated here. The problem is, he came in 3 pounds overweight resulting in the forfeit of 20 % of the purse right off the bat. Osbourne is coming off of a first-round knockout against Jerome Rivera. He carries a 5-inch reach advantage and a 2-inch height advantage. Osbourne averages 4.30 significant strikes landed per minute at a 62.96% accuracy rate. Kape is averaging 3.67 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy rate of 47.88%. All things considered, give me the underdog in Ode’ Osbourne here. Kape missing weight concerns me. For conventional gambling purposes, Vegas has this fight at -120 to end inside the distance. Osbourne is my play for DFS and conventional betting purposes.
My Pick
Ode Osbourn
Karolina Kowalkiewicz DK: $8,300 FD: $17 (-135) vs. Jessica Penne DK: $7,900 FD: $12 (-108)
Jessica Penne is averaging 44.5 DK FP per fight in the UFC. Her best FP total was 94 points and that was in her first fight back in 2014. Since then, she has had three losses and one win, never totaling more than 69 DKFP. Kowalkiewicz exhibits similar numbers in the sense that she has had one high-scoring victory prior but since then she has four consecutive losses never totaling more than 37 DK FP. I’m going to make this quick and say that there is no reason to invest in this fight for DFS purposes. With that said, for conventional gambling purposes give me the Karolina Kowalkiewicz to win by decision.
My Pick
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
Alonzo Menifield DK: 9,200 FD: $21 (-250) vs. Ed Herman DK: $7,000 FD: $10 (+195)
Menifield’s defense TD rate is at 85%. He’s landing 3.31 significant strikes per minute at a 48% accuracy rate. He’s coming off of a win against Fabio Cherant following two consecutive losses to Ovince Saint Preux and Devin Clark. Ed Herman will be looking for the takedown as he averages 2.21 takedowns per fight at a 48.57% accuracy rate. Menifield’s power and strength will be too much for Ed Herman. That’s the long and short of it. Herman is now 40 years old. He has won his last three fights, most recently submitting Mike Rodriguez in the third round. If Herman is not able to get this fight to the mat (which will be tough). I believe Menifield will end this fight quickly. Give me Menifield here by TKO.
My Pick
Alonzo Menifield
Vince Morales DK: $7,800 FD: $13 (-106) vs. Drako Rodriguez DK: $8,400 FD: $16 (-134)
Rodriguez averages 2.75 takedowns per fight at a 100% accuracy rate. Morales average’s 4.22 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy rate of 40.24%. Rodriguez wants this fight on the mat, it’s as simple as that. Rodriguez is coming off of a first-round knockout loss to Aiemann Zahabi. I don’t think we can say yet that Rodriguez has a bad chin as Zahabi caught him good but it is a concern of mine. If Rodriguez’s chin is an issue, give this fight to Morales and quickly. Morales has lost three of his last four UFC fights, but he was able to beat the same fighter in Aiemann Zahabi that Rodriguez could not. Give me Morales here. Rodriguez needs to do something to impress me before I back him. At a salary of $7,800 lock-in Vince Morales.
My Pick
Vince Morales
Bobby Green DK: $6,900 FD: $8 (+240) vs. Rafael Fiziev DK: $9,300 FD: $22 (-325)
Rafael Fiziev is on a solid three-fight win streak with his most recent win coming by TKO. I firmly believe Fiziev will win this fight but the question is, will he score? Fiziev is only averaging 61.7 DK FPPF. Short of a first-round TKO, I don’t believe he reaches value. Oddsmakers have this fight at -165 to go over 2.5 rounds. Fiziev does have the best odds in terms of method of victory. He’s +175 to win by TKO/KO. Either way, Fiziev is my play here. Green defends takedowns at a 72% rate and his striking defense is just above 62%. Green is now 34 years old and last fought in 2020 against Thiago Moises. He lost by decision. I don’t see any path to victory for Bobby “King” Green but that doesn’t mean that you shouldn’t be hedging your exposure to Fiziev with some share of Green. All in all, if you have the salary, invest in Fiziev.
My Pick
Rafael Fiziev
Song Yadong DK: $8,000 FD: $13 (+100) vs. Casey Kenney DK: $8,200 FD: $18 (-125)
Oddsmakers have this fight at -235 to go over 2.5 rounds. What do we do when a fight is expected to go the distance? Yes, check each fighter’s volume for takedowns and significant strikes landed per minute. If we’re assuming a fight is going to last all three rounds, you’ll want to invest in the fighter who exhibits more volume. Yadong is averaging 4.35 significant strikes landed per minute while Kenney is averaging 4.81 significant strikes landed per minute. Both fighters are landing these strikes at approx. a 45% accuracy rate. Both fighters have takedown capabilities. Kenney is averaging 1.10 takedowns per fight at a 39% accuracy rate but is only defending takedowns at a 59% rate. Yadong on the other hand is defending takedowns at a 56% rate but is averaging just .59 takedowns per fight. Yadong is going to want to keep this fight standing. He’s averaging 4.35 significant strikes. This matchup is currently -200 to go the distance. Yadong is coming off of a three-round loss to Tyler Phillips. I expect Song to get himself back in the win column tonight. At salaries of $8,000 & $8,200 on Draftkings, this is a fight that you must have a piece off. Both fighters are reasonably priced and carry a high fantasy upside. Yadong is averaging 77.5 fantasy points per fight and Kenney is averaging 67.8 fantasy points per fight. Give me Yadong here but it’s close!
My Pick
Song Yadong
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Tecia Torres DK: $8,700 FD: $19 (-150) vs. Angela Hill DK: $7,500 FD: $12 (+120)
Angela Hill won her last fight against Ashley Yoder with 77 significant strikes in a three-round win by decision. She had four minutes and 52 seconds of control time with one takedown. Hill has a 2-inch height advantage with a 5-inch reach advantage. She’s averaging 5.66 significant strikes landed per minute while Torres is averaging 4.30 significant strikes landed per minute. Hill has an advantage on the mat. Most importantly, she’s defending takedowns at a 76% rate. Torres defends her takedowns at a 56% rate. Angela Hill is my selection for the fight. She is playable in DFS. Her salary of $7,500 is beyond reasonable and will allow you to afford other elite fighters.
My Pick
Angela Hill
Michael Chiesa DK: $7,700 FD: $25 (+100) vs. Vicente Luque DK: $8,500 FD: $15 (-135)
Michael Chiesa is averaging 3.60 takedowns per fight at an accuracy rate of 52%. He defends takedowns at a 68% rate. He’s only throwing 1.89 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy rate of 40%. Vincent Luque is his polar opposite. He’s only averaging .66 takedowns per fight but is landing 5.74 significant strikes per minute. It should be obvious how each fighter sees this playing out. Luque wants this fight standing. Chiesa wants this fight on the mat. This is another fight that you must have a piece of. Oddsmakers have this fight at +100 to end inside the distance. Both fighters are very durable. It’s not ridiculous to assume this fight goes the distance. The winner of this matchup will score well, and considering their salaries, the winner will reach value. Luque is coming off of a three-fight win streak while Chiesa is coming into this matchup on a four-fight win streak. Invest in one side or the other, do not fade this fight but give me Luque here.
My Pick
Vicente Luque
Jose Aldo DK: $8,600 FD: $16 (-130) vs. Pedro Munhoz DK: $9,100 FD: $14 (-105)
Jose Aldo is coming off of a 2020 win against Marlon Vera. He won this fight over three rounds only throwing just 44 significant strikes. Aldo is one of the most elusive fighters in the game. If you look at his game logs, has not scored well in a win or a loss since fighting Jeremy Stephens back in 2019. Aldo has a 61% striking defense percentage and a 91% take-down defense percentage. He is landing 3.45 significant strikes per minute. Over his last four fights, his highest striking total was 83 SS and that was in a loss to Petr Yan. Aldo possesses a 5-inch reach advantage with a considerable speed advantage. Munoz is throwing 5.60 significant strikes per minute and carries more power than Aldo. Can Munhoz catch the elusive Jose Aldo? I believe so. An $8,600 is somewhat baffling to me. Even over three rounds, I don’t see Aldo paying off. Investing in Jose Aldo is going to be risky especially with his overpriced salary. Give me the GPP upside play in Pedro Munhoz who carries a higher upside as well as a cheaper salary.
My Pick
Pedro Munhoz
Ciryl Gane DK: $9,400 FD: $23 (-350) vs. Derrick Lewis DK: $6,800 FD: $17 (+260)
Derrick Lewis is averaging 2.59 significant strikes landed per minute at an accuracy rate of 50%. This fight is very simple. Lewis is very bad off of his back. He defends takedowns at a 54% rate. He has extremely heavy hands, maybe the heaviest in the entire UFC. One connected punch on Gane and lights out. The question that you have to ask yourself here is, can Gane take the fight to the mat. If so, Cyril will win this fight. If Lewis is on the mat, he is not where he wants to be. Lewis is looking for a one-punch knockout. This is no secret. Lewis is at a very low salary. Investing in him will allow you to afford the more elite fighters including Fiziev, and Menifield. Gane has a clear path to victory but Lewis can win this fight at any point with one punch. This is a solid main event that is worth investing in both sides of.
My Pick
Ciryl Gane
