This is an exciting week for the McKeen’s team as our initial ranking for the 2021 NHL Draft will released. Look for it in the next day or so. In this most unusual season, we would have typically released a couple of earlier rankings, and as the season closed in on the halfway point, the draft year would be coming into focus. Surprises would have emerged, early highly touted prospects would have slid down the rankings, and the storylines developing. It is always surprising how much rankings change from preseason projections, underlying the importance of the age 17 season in a player’s development.
This year we find ourselves with two key leagues in the OHL and WHL who have not even started play, and many other stoppages and interruptions around the world. Relying on video scouting, and the many, many viewings our team has had of the top prospects in previous seasons, we have put together a preliminary list. It is an interesting starting point but will be subject to change if we see hockey resume this season.
Despite those challenges, one of the more interesting storylines to emerge is the trajectory of goaltender Jesper Wallstedt. NHL teams are increasingly reluctant to part with a top pick on a netminder given the long and risky development path. Wallstedt is a rare talent that we see as a potential top five selection. Jimmy Hamrin, who has been watching his development in Sweden since the netminder was 14, takes you through his story and unique abilities. Subscribers to McKeen’s can go deeper with a full scouting report complete with video from Jimmy found here.[[ad:athena]]
Vince Gibbons, our WHL Senior Analyst, has also been admiring and scouting Ty Smith’s game for years and writes about his emergence as an early Calder Trophy favorite jumping straight from the WHL to the NHL as a 20-year-old. He introduces you to Smiths game and early success in New Jersey.
The McKeen’s team are scouting and writing about prospects all season long and provide in-depth reports on our website: www.mckeenshockey.com
Editor’s Note: Drafting is only half the battle! Get an edge on your competition all season long with rankings, projections, trade evaluator, lineup adviser and much more with our NHL Season Tools. Click here to learn more!
2021 NHL Draft Prospect - The best Swedish goalie prospect ever is emerging.
By Jimmy Hamrin
Jesper Wallstedt, G, 6’3”, 200lbs
2020-21 Sweden U20, WJC, 2GP-2.40GAA-0.923SV%
2020-21 Lulea, SHL, 18GP-2.02GAA-0.923SV%
A hockey career is a marathon race, and no one pays much attention to how good the best goalies of all time were as teenagers and the fact that many of them were not even high draft picks. The best Swede in the net ever, Henrik Lundqvist, was a seventh round pick by the team for whom he would become the starter and face of the franchise for 15 years. Jacob Markstrom and Robin Lehner, the two top goalies Sweden have now, were second round picks but needed 10 years to become the elite goalies they are today. Goalies very rarely emerge as teenagers or even their early 20’s. Tom Barrasso won the Vezina as a teenager in 1984 but that does not happen nowadays. Philadelphia’s Carter Hart broke into the league at 20 and two years later only 22-year-old Jake Oettinger is younger than him by a couple of months.
That will provide some perspective when we look at Jesper Wallstedt’s draft season. 18-year-old Wallstedt is way ahead of 18-year-old Henrik Lundqvist. Since the age of 14, Wallstedt has been ahead of every goalie prospect, at the same age as him, as I have seen in Sweden over the last 20+ years. He played against U20 competition as a 14-year-old and is now playing as a starter on a top team in the SHL as an 18-year-old. He is in the top half of goalies in the league in his rookie season. He plays on a team that has some defensive issues and the other goalies on his team have a save percentage under .900 while Wallstedt has been balancing between .915 to over .920 over the course of the season so far. The xG average for the shots Wallstedt has faced has been higher than in most other teams in the SHL.
What is it that makes Wallstedt able to reach higher levels earlier than all other Swedish goalies in the past? Goalie coaching is of course a bigger thing now at an early age than when a guy like Markstrom grew up, and even more so than when Lundqvist grew up. Wallstedt also developed physically early for his age but most importantly what stands out is his outstanding hockey sense. Hockey looks easy for him. He seems to know where the play is heading and what the shooter will do before he does. He is almost always square to the puck, making saves with his torso which makes him appear calm and the shooter to look like he delivered a poor shot.
He tracks the puck well through traffic as well. Wallstedt is not athletically spectacular, but he is at right place at the right time, so he rarely needs to be. He rarely reacts to the game; he reads the play and acts on it. He is also impressively aware of how much power he needs to use to get into the right position. A goalie who is more reactionary could easily use too much power to move fast but will instead get into big trouble for a second shot or a deke. That is rarely the case with Wallstedt.
Wallstedt will become the first Swedish goalie ever to be drafted in the first round. If we only evaluate pure talent he is probably a top five candidate for the draft. That would make him the highest selected goalie in a generation. As stated though, goalies take more time to develop and the transition to North America is an obstacle too that goaltenders like Hart or Oettinger did not have to face. If you, as a team, own a top five pick, do you draft a kid who probably will not play in the next three or four years? Goalies are riskier and harder to project to complicate the decision. Wallstedt has emerged earlier than expected so far and his hockey sense will help him to do so in the future as well. So, whenever the next NHL draft does take place, Wallstedt’s name, and how high he is taken, will be one of the most interesting topics on the first day.
Editor’s Note: Watch the Minnesota Wild face the Colorado Avalanche on NBCSN Tuesday night starting at 8:30 pm ET or livestream it here.
Prospects in the News – Elite Skating Smith early favorite for Calder Trophy
By Vince Gibbons
Ty Smith, D, 5’ 10”, 170lbs
2019-20 Spokane, WHL, 46GP-19G-40A-59PTS
2020-21 New Jersey, NHL, 9GP-2G-6A-8PTS
This week another defender from the WHL has shown that he is more than ready for consistent minutes in the NHL. Ty Smith of the New Jersey Devils has taken the league by storm averaging around seventeen minutes per game and contributing offensively in his rookie season. He is currently the rookie leader in points with eight points in his first nine games and is moving up on people’s Calder Trophy ballots daily with his early success.
Ty Smith’s game is driven by his skating but he is hardly a one-dimensional player. He is an elite skater with four-direction speed, excellent acceleration and incredible footwork that puts him amongst the elite in the league. On top of that incredible base, he has many other layers to his game which are starting to show at the NHL level.
His offensive tool kit is as versatile as anyone from the back end. Smith is a great shooter with a powerful shot, and quick release making him a threat to score from distance. He isn’t only a one-timer or slap shot threat, he is able to hold the puck and draw defenders in close to create screens and shooting lanes that allow him to get pucks to the net. His first NHL goal is a great example of that. Smith toe-dragged the defender charging out to him, this forced the defender to stick check him which created a lane to the net and after a series of deflections in close, the puck winds up in the back of the net. In the offensive zone Smith is more than a capable passer and has his head up at all times. He makes plays beyond the safe back into the corner and uses his movement to open passing lanes both cross ice and to the front of the net. He handles pressure well when handling the puck and can still be creative in those situations.
In terms of the transition game he is a very good zone exit/entry player. The plurality of his skills mean he can hit a homerun breakaway pass, make a five-foot bump pass to start the break out, or move with speed in the open ice out into the neutral zone. His ability to make stretch passes is something that must be defended which creates more advantageous gaps for successful zone exits. Once he moves the puck he doesn’t glide up to the blue line, he typically pushes the pace to beat his man back. In overtime against Boston, you could see the type of weapon he is in the neutral zone with space. He generated a couple of excellent chances that the Devils were unlucky not to capitalize on. He also will jump into the rush without hesitation.
The part of his game that would have been most underrated would be his defensive abilities. On a dynamic blue line at the World Juniors, Smith took on more a shutdown role because he is such an effective player, particularly with his body positioning. As a smaller defender he uses leverage positioning and quickness rather than brute strength and physical ability to strip pucks and manage his own zone. He can pinch a larger forward off quickly and move the puck extremely well in small areas in and around his own net. He has an incredibly active stick that is in the right lane more often than not. Even early is his NHL career he has shown his ability to get the puck moving along the wall.
Smith is starting to get some powerplay opportunities in Jersey and is taking advantage with a couple of points playing alongside some of the talented youngsters. He has positive underlying numbers in a small sample size at 5v5 after nine pro games, but can it be sustained over his rookie season? Starting this year in New Jersey has been the ideal timing and location for Smith with four established defenders ahead of him in Subban, Murray, Kulikov & Severson. The Devils we will be able to manage his minutes and put him in situations to create opportunities for him going forward. I expect that his near point per game pace falls off but I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 40-point rookie season even with the shortened schedule which would have to be considered an absolute success for Smith in his first year.
