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The 2022 IIHF U18 World Championship are entering the playoffs and medal rounds. In last week’s Prospect Report, Director of Scouting Brock Otten, profiled the players to watch in the tournament with predictions and still well worth a read heading into the key matchups. It can be found here. In this week’s column Brock provides his updated analysis and predictions based on play to date.
As part of our U18 coverage we at mckeenshockey.com have been providing daily updates to our subscribers on the tournament games following each day of play. Zack Szweras has been delivering excellent overviews of the actions with video clips, ending each column with that day’s top performers: Best Forward, Best Defenseman and Best Goalie. We have included those players and their review in this column following the preview to bring you up to date on the action.
For more 2022IIHF U18 World Championship content, in addition to daily updates, mckeenshockey.com will be bringing more stories from the tournament from Chapin Landvogt, on the ground in Germany. In addition, look for analysis and reviews of the key 2022 NHL Draft hopefuls in the coming weeks, and how it may impact their potential ranking
Enjoy. The McKeen’s team are scouting and writing about prospects all season long and provide in-depth reports on our website: www.mckeenshockey.com
2022 IIHF U18 World Championship Playoff Preview
By Brock Otten
Quarterfinals Preview:
Canada vs. Finland
The round robin certainly didn’t go according to plan for either of these teams. Coming into the tournament there were major concerns surrounding Canada’s defense and ability to keep the puck out of their net. Turns out, those concerns were merited because through three games Canada has given up 17 goals (second worst in the tournament) and looked completely lost in their own end. The scary thing is…Reid Dyck has been terrific in net. If the goaltending had been below average, how many more goals would they have given up? Meanwhile, Finland appeared to be cruising and had the opportunity to bump Sweden down to third in the division had they beaten them in the final game of the round robin. Instead, Sweden woke up and beat the Finns, somehow pushing Finland down to second, which meant a much tougher quarterfinal matchup.
This should easily be the best quarterfinal and it will be the first one to occur on Thursday morning (EST). Finland has the advantage on the back end by a long shot, as they’ve been the best defensive team in the tournament thus far, giving up only seven goals and 66 shots on net through three games. At forward, both of these teams have firepower. So, what does it come down to? Goaltending and special teams. Whatever team can play the most disciplined is always going to have an advantage in this type of close matchup. Additionally, whatever team can get the better goaltending will also have a leg up, especially given the firepower on both sides.
My heart wants to take Canada, but my brain says Finland. I just don’t have much faith in Canada’s defense at this point. Finland forces so many turnovers with how dialed in and intelligent their forward group is. That’s bad news for the Canadians, who just can’t seem to stop giving up odd man opportunities.
Prediction: Finland 5, Canada 3
Czechia vs. Switzerland
The Czechs have had a terrific tournament, playing the U.S. well, and defeating Canada in overtime. Their powerplay is firing on all cylinders thanks to Jiri Kulich, who has to be raising his draft stock. They are rolling three quality lines right now and didn’t even miss a beat after losing Dominic Petr to an injury. The Swiss did well to avoid last place by narrowly defeating Latvia, but their odds seem low in this one.
Czechia has the edge in pretty much every department. One guy I’m really looking for more from in the medal round is Matyas Sapovaliv. Even though he’s centering the second line, he has been completely overshadowed by Kulich and Czechia’s strong group of 2023 eligible players.
Really, the only chance Switzerland has is to have one of their netminders stand on their head and steal this one. Unfortunately, I just don’t see it happening.
Prediction: Czechia 4, Switzerland 1
Sweden vs. Germany
Did the real team Sweden finally stand up in their victory over Finland to take home their division? The turning point had to be that final period against Switzerland. They looked to be in trouble, but it was like the light bulb finally went on and they’ve been a different team since. Now they draw a German squad which has been a bit of a doormat defensively (even worse than Canada). There is some offensive spark, but it seems unlikely that Germany will be able to handle Sweden’s balanced scoring attack.
The good news for Germany? Julian Lutz has looked very good at this tournament and may have saved his draft stock. The bad news? Sweden can score at will and have a very active and aggressive blueline that only aids in their ability to put the puck in the net and consistently apply pressure. There are some holes on the backend and in net, but I don’t believe Germany has the depth offensively to truly force an upset.
Prediction: Sweden 7, Germany 1
United States vs. Latvia
Oh Latvia, how I do not envy thee. Look, the Latvians have had a great tournament. They upset Sweden. They played every team in their group tough. Their strong showing has probably helped a few of their prospects get drafted in Montreal. However, this American team looks unstoppable right now.
The best part of this U.S. squad so far is that it seems like every game…even every period, it’s been a different player stepping up. There may not be a single offensive player on this squad playing poorly. Even the underagers like Ryan Leonard have been getting in on the action and providing secondary scoring. The only negative, and this is nitpicking, is that the powerplay for the Americans has not been clicking quite as well as they would probably like. If anything, this game against Latvia could provide them with some good practice as the Latvians are likely to be chasing the play and taking a ton of penalties.
Prediction: United States 9, Latvia 2
Semi Finals Preview:
- of course, pending the successful prediction of the quarterfinals
United States vs. Finland
At this point, I just don’t see anyone beating the United States. What I have loved about this team so far is that they have made the necessary adjustments to find success. They destroyed Canada by beating them with pace and applying consistent pressure from a defensive perspective (the best offense is a great defense). However, Czechia forced them to the outside and clogged up transitional lanes. To adapt, the U.S. worked the cycle and beat them by showing patience to draw into the middle. Finland would give them their toughest challenge yet and to me, this would be the gold medal game (based on team performance and ability thus far), however I don’t see Finland winning.
Prediction: United States 4, Finland 2
Sweden vs. Czechia
After what should be an easy victory for Sweden against Germany, which one will show up to play the Czechs? The one that got beat by Latvia and nearly beat by Switzerland, or the one who beat the Finns? Meanwhile, the Czechs have been consistently strong this tournament and are really finding a way to play structured defense, but also apply consistent pressure offensively, on the attack. I’m taking the Czechs in this matchup if it occurs, because I just think that this team has a real chip on their shoulder after some poor performances internationally recently. You can tell that they really want this.
Prediction: Czechia 3, Sweden 2 (in OT)
Bronze Medal Game
Finland vs. Sweden
A rematch of the divisional game, where Finland would be looking to get some revenge. And revenge I think gets served here. And this wouldn’t be revenge just for the division game that saw Sweden steal the division. It would also be for last year’s bronze medal game, which Sweden won 8-0.
Prediction: Finland 4, Sweden 3
Gold Medal Game
United States vs. Czechia
Everyone loves a good Cinderella story. But the Americans are just too strong. As I said earlier, I just don’t see anyone beating this team right now.
Prediction: United States 7, Czechia 4
2022 IIHF U18 World Championship Preliminary Round Daily Top Performers
By Zack Szweras
Below is a roundup of the top daily performers so far in the preliminary round of the tournament as promised. For the full recaps of the games, subscribers can visit mckeenshockey.com.
April 23rd, Preliminary Round
Games – Finland 6-2 Switzerland, Czechia 4-2 Germany, Latvia 3-2 Sweden, US 8-3 Canada
Best Forward: US, LW Isaac Howard (4G, 1A, 5P) - The decision for best forward was between Isaac Howard and Czechia’s Jiri Kulich, but it is nearly impossible to not pick Howard after putting up four goals against the reigning gold medalists. While some of the credit can be given to playing with linemates, like the talented Frank Nazar and top 2023 prospect Gavin Brindley, it was the finishing ability of Howard that was able to get the job done. On his second of four goals, Howard was able to get two dangerous shot attempts, after the first one was saved by Dyck, the rebound came back to him in the slot where he made no mistake and zipped it by Dyck for the goal. Coming into this tournament, Howard has been viewed as a fringe 1st-2nd round prospect for the upcoming 2022 NHL draft. There is no doubt that this has already had a positive effect on his draft stock and will likely make scouts go watch earlier games of Howard to get the full picture of the prospect he will be.
Best Defenseman: US, D Ryan Chesley (1G, 1A, 2P) - This was a tough choice between two United States defensemen, Ryan Chesley and Lane Hutson. Both of these defensemen played top-pair minutes, excelling at both ends of the ice. Ultimately, I decided to go with the defenseman who scored the goal to break the momentum team Canada was building off of the Bedard Goal. Chesley had an outstanding game covering his gaps, recognizing and exploiting the open passing and shooting lanes. Part of Chesley’s task as a top defenseman was keeping both Adam Fantilli and Connor Bedard’s lines in check. He held the dynamic duo to a total of two points (both by Bedard). If Chesley can keep up his play throughout the tournament, it can very well open some scouts’ eyes as the 2022 draft in July inches closer.
Best Goaltender: LAT, G Deivs Rolovs (2.00 GAA, .925 SV%) - Hands up if you thought that it would be the Latvian goaltender winning any best goaltender award, let alone against Sweden? While Sweden definitely was not on their ‘A’ game today, the team still consists of top 2022 and 2023 draft eligible talent. The most impressive part of Rolovs’ performance was that the two goals he let in were when the Latvian team was shorthanded, meaning he was able to shut out team Sweden at even strength. If Latvia continues to get solid goaltending from Rolovs the rest of the tournament, maybe this one game surprise can become a dark horse team to medal.
Daily Top Performers: April 24th, Preliminary Round
Games - Finland 4-1 Latvia, US 6-2 Czechia, Sweden 6-2 Switzerland, Canada 8-3 Germany,
Best Forward: CAN, C Connor Bedard (3G, 0A, 3P)
It was only a matter of time before Connor Bedard was going to make this list as the best forward of the day. After an uncharacteristically quiet first period, Connor Bedard turned on his game and was the difference maker in the second and third for team Canada. With the game too close for comfort sitting at 4-3, Bedard took it upon himself to score the next two goals to provide Canada with a comfortable 6-3 lead in the third period. Coming into this tournament Bedard was already known in the majority of the hockey community for his outstanding play for Regina of the WHL and his performance a year ago in this same tournament. After today, I can confidently say that Connor Bedard is becoming a household name and proving why he deserved exceptional status into the CHL and why he will be a top pick in the 2023 NHL entry draft.
Best Defenseman: CAN, D Grayden Seipmann (1G, 1A, 2P)
Coming into this tournament Canada’s defence was the biggest question mark for the team. After a shaky start against the United States, their defence looked to bounce back and support the tremendously skilled forward group. Today it was Seipmann who stepped up to help out at both ends of the ice. Seipmann opened up the scoring giving Canada the lead and through his play in the defensive end, he made sure they never gave it up. Shortly after his goal, Seipmann retrieved the puck in his own end before making a beautiful stretch pass, which ended up on the stick of David Goyette who then zipped it past the German goalie to extend the lead. As a 2022 draft eligible, this tournament is a great place to put yourself on the map and that is exactly what Seipmann did today.
Best Goaltender: US, G Tyler Muszelik (2.00 GAA, .946 SV%) - In a draft year with little to no high-end goalies available, this tournament provides an opportunity for draft eligible goaltenders to show why they deserve to be taken in the upcoming entry draft. Going up against a Czechia team with a ton of fire power upfront, Muszelik looked calm, cool and collected in net. After giving up a goal in the first to Jiri Kulich off of a penalty shot, Muszelik really settled in and gave the US team time to build a lead. If the United States can get consistent goaltending throughout the rest of the tournament, they should be cruising all the way to the gold medal match.
Daily Top Performers – April 26th, preliminary round
Games - Switzerland 4-3 Latvia, Czechia 6-5 (OT) Canada, Sweden 4-3 Finland, US 10-2 Germany
Best Forward: CZE, C Jiri Kulich (3G, 1A, 4P) - Jiri Kulich is quietly having the best tournament of any player on any team. The 2022 draft eligible knew he was going to be heavily relied on coming into this tournament and he has taken that role and flourished. Having to battle each of the first three games, Kulich has single handily made sure that Czechia is in every game scoring at least one goal in each of the three games. Coming into the game against Canada, Kulich knew he would have to score again in order to give Czechia the win and secure second place in Group A. Not only did he score once, but he scored three times including the game winning hat trick goal in overtime. This tournament has done wonders to Kulich’s draft stock, there shouldn’t be a single scout to come out of this tournament without having Kulich in their first round.
Best Defenseman: SWE, D Mattias Havelid (2G, 0A, 2P) - After the shocking loss to start the tournament against Latvia and almost losing to Switzerland on day two, this last game against Finland was for all the marbles. If Sweden was going to win, they needed someone to step up and it so happened to be 2022 draft eligible Mattias Havelid. His two goals came at the most opportune time, the first was an absolute snipe from the point to give Sweden the lead 1-0. His second goal however was much more important as it was the fourth Swedish goal and the game winning goal. This performance of Mattias is the sole reason why Sweden finished atop of Group B, getting the favorable matchup against Germany rather than facing the ever-dangerous team Canada, which Finland must face after losing to Sweden.
Best Goaltender: CAN, Reid Dyck (46 SV, 5.78 GAA, .885 SV%)
I’m sure you are thinking how does a goalie who gave up six goals in an overtime loss get the award for best goaltender? Well, if it wasn’t for Reid Dyck, the game would’ve been completely lopsided in favor of Czechia. Canada’s defence has been a concern the whole tournament and once again left Dyck out to dry, forcing him to make highlight reel save after highlight reel save in order to keep Canada in the game. Out of the six goals that Dyck gave up, five of them happened while Canada was penalized and the only even strength goal came off of an atrocious turnover by David Goyette which set up Eduard Sale to tie the game up at 5-5 with three minutes left in regulation. If Canada places in this tournament, it is almost certain that Reid Dyck will play a massive role in it.
