Captured in Elliotte Friedman’s 30 thoughts, was a segment about goals scored in high danger areas using data provided by Montreal based Sportslogiq.
Friedman’s point #18:
Friedman went into greater detail during the Leafs/Hurricanes broadcast on Friday to show league averages for each quadrant. The offensive zone is broken up into smaller components as per the graphic below provided by the great resource War-on-ice.
Toronto’s Nazem Kadri has slumped in the first quarter, scoring twice, but only once at 5v5. The argument regarding his struggles accentuates shooting from low percentage areas contributing to low shooting percentage at even strength. I think this somewhat misses the point.
We’ll go into Kadri shortly but I don’t think it’s solely about shot placement and firing more from high danger (HD) scoring areas, but rather how often he is involved in HD scoring areas – even as a bystander. Not showing up as an attempt event, the fact he’s lurking will lead to more success than trying to get pucks into better shooting positions in high traffic areas.
A great writeup on Kadri’s scoring woes appeared on Sportsnet, co-authored by Steve Burtch and Andrew Berkshire. The go into great detail, while Berkshire, involved with Sportslogiq uses the proprietary data to break down locations where Kadri is receiving passes in the offensive zone. It’s a telling piece, I urge you to go through it.
We’re going to go through five prominent players and look at their high danger scoring tendencies – and some insight into their scoring issues.
Individual, On-Ice and relative High Danger Scoring Chances
The charts below outline rolling 25-game averages for individual high danger scoring chance contributions (iHSC), on-ice HD scoring chances (HSCF) – both on the left scale – and HD chances relative to when off the ice (HSCrel%) – right scale. The bar graph represents the rolling Goals/60 (that runs eerily close to the Individual HD scoring chance rate).
Values are restricted to only 5v5 play, taking out the special teams component that has more structure and player positioning assignments, less than the freewheeling even strength play. I only went back to 2013-14 with a couple of seasons of data and omitting the lockout shortened ’12-13 season.
Let’s start with a struggling superstar.
Immediately, Crosby’s chart documents a declining rate of recent high danger scoring chances. The disconcerting item is the on ice HD scoring chances relative to when off the ice is dipping down to and hovering towards even were in the past it was well into the double digits as he led the way offensively.
The superstar is simply not getting to those HD scoring areas on his own enough anymore. The discrepancy between the on-ice HD scoring chance proportions versus his individual scoring chance contributions is telling. Pittsburgh may be generating more HD scoring while the superstar is on the ice, but Crosby himself is not the direct catalyst. That in itself is significant.
The question then becomes if he’s not getting to those high danger scoring chance areas, what is he doing? For a small glimpse into that we can get into Ryan Stimson’s passing data.
According to 2014-15 passing data, Crosby ranked third in shots generated in the scoring chance area by a pass originating by him per 60 minutes. He trailed Tyler Johnson and Jakub Voracek. In shot attempt generation per 60 minutes he ranked fifth. I wrote about Voracek being a star perimeter player and it’s looking like Sid is starting to resemble characteristics of perimeter play.
Players | SAG/60 | SC SAG/60 | SC SG/60 | iSC | iHSC | HSCF60 | HSCF%Rel |
22.02 | 7.72 | 4.63 | 29 | 63 | 12.03 | 5.89 | |
13.16 | 5.13 | 3.79 | 51 | 71 | 14.17 | 0.5 | |
22.22 | 4.96 | 3.42 | 48 | 85 | 12.96 | 6.47 | |
16.44 | 4.48 | 3.36 | 44 | 54 | 12.81 | 0.95 | |
19.38 | 4.93 | 3.19 | 114 | 56 | 11.85 | 0.43 |
Analyzing Crosby’s play can be an in-depth study, but the purpose here, Crosby isn’t contributing much in HD scoring areas, while making a lot of passes into the scoring chance area.
We can look at another superstar to see some similarity.
The Tampa Bay Lightning star has struggled, with a pedestrian 1.48 Pts/60 at 5v5, significantly lower than the 2.15 and down from the 2.56 in ’13-14. He’s scored five goals in ’15-16 at 5v5, with significantly lower shot attempt generation per 60 minutes, both on-ice and on an individual basis and a 0.92 goals/60 has dipped under one for the first time in his career.
His high danger scoring chart is fairly telling.
Part of the magic of the 2011-12 season, was how the star blossomed into a premiere goal scorer by taking charge and getting dirtier after emerging as a predictable fixture at the top of the right faceoff circle as a shooter the previous season. He got much dirtier, and scored 41 goals at 5v5.
In 2015-16, the downward trend continues as both the on-ice and individual HD scoring chance generation follows dips in goals/60 and scoring chances relative to when he’s not on the ice.
He has a teammate that is experiencing similarities.
Killorn peaked in ’14-15 and has been in a decline in HD scoring chances. The dip is fairly illustrative. He scored 11 goals at 5v5 in ’14-15 while peaking over 3.5 scoring on-ice scoring chances while this season individual scoring chance rates have dipped to almost half. Goals have been tough to come by and in the first quarter, he’s gone scoreless. A hard work ethic and solid forechecking skills will make him effective in the offensive zone, but his scoring will be more dependent on positioning than those skills. He has to get dirtier.
The former London Knight star scored twice against the Flames on Tuesday night (while teammate Ryan Getzlaf contributed five helpers), but the Ducks sniper has struggled mightily along with his teammates. He’s scored once at 5v5, firing a measly 35 shots for a 2.86% shooting percentage. Horrid results. His 43 goals in ’13-14 are captured with a high end on-ice and individual HD scoring chance generation. The individual scoring chance marker follows the goals/60 production as it does in all charts. From the beginning of ’15-16, his HD scoring chances have severely dipped.
Good goal scorers knows where to position themselves without the puck to capitalize on loose puck battles, rebounds and quiet space on the ice to maximize scoring potential. Anaheim’s Cory Perry made a living in the high danger area.
Get dirtier, Corey, it will pay off.
Nick Foligno rode a smoldering hot fourth quarter to career highs in goals (31) in 2014-15 on career high 17% overall shooting percentage. He earned a sizable extension as a result and without much surprise has struggled to maintain that same productivity. He’s currently firing 2.0% in ’15-16, with one goal on 51 shots and very little immediate relief in sight.
The peak in on-ice scoring chances coincided with scoring results, but the HD scoring chances are dipping, as are scoring chances relative to when he’s off the ice. Columbus scoring struggles continue, but the Blue Jackets captain won’t get much help until he starts to get dirtier.
Kadri seems to be the anomaly here.
Like Perry, another former London Knight, Kadri’s first quarter struggles are well documented and discussed ad nauseum, but his charts indicate a distinct divergence. Both his on-ice and individual scoring chance generation has been on the rise in ’15-16. He’s receiving more responsibility and opportunity, and while the results haven’t been as desirable, his individual scoring chance generation has been trending higher, a great sign even if the results are only trickling in.
Results – assuming he maintains his current production rates – will eventually correct themselves for the better.
Koivu represents an interesting case here, where on an individual basis he hasn’t contributed much outside of his norms, with a recent downtick on individual scoring chance rates. The Finn’s been known as a playmaker rather than a shooter, an attribute of perimeter and outside play than HD scoring chance area positioning.
http://stats.hockeyanalysis.com/ratings.php?db=201516&sit=5v5&type=individual&teamid=0&pos=skaters&minutes=50&disp=1&sort=PCT&sortdir=DESC
Now, Koivu ranks 27th in Pts/60 at 5v5 (2.50), consisting solely of the NHL leading assists per 60 (2.50) among players playing over 100 minutes. He’s played with Jason Zucker and Nino Niederreiter in ’15-16 who have 11 goals at 5v5 between them boosting that on-ice success rate and offering a bunch of assists to Koivu.
While his individual performance hasn’t changed much there’s been a slight bump in on-ice HD scoring chances, while showing a distinct divergence showing that the aging pivot is clearly enjoying the fruits of some on ice success and assistance from linemates.
He may still be performing well in the first quarter, but the discrepancies here are telling. He’s averaging a crazy rate of +30 relative to off-ice HD scoring chance generation.
That’s simply unsustainable.