The PGA Tour season is rounding third base and heading for home. There are just two more events before the FedExCup Playoffs begin.
First up is the 3M Open at TPC Twin Cities. This will be the fifth running of the event with Tony Finau returning to play the role of defending champ.
For DFS roster construction, I like to think of unique elements of the event that might steer us in the direction of some off-the-radar plays. For this week, I’m going to take a look at regional performance.
Midwest Comfort
The Midwest is known for farming, fried food, and a friendly attitude.
When it comes to golf in the Midwest, especially in the summer, it becomes about bentgrass turf, soft greens, and easy scoring. These are the common conditions we see when the PGA Tour travels to courses in the Midwest.
Here are the top performers in adjusted strokes gained per round on Midwest courses, over the last two years:
Tony Finau
Sungjae Im
J.T. Poston
Stephan Jaeger
Emiliano Grillo
Keith Mitchell
Adam Hadwin
Taylor Pendrith
Billy Horschel
Lucas Glover
Mark Hubbard
Cameron Champ
Cam Davis
Gary Woodland
Sepp Straka
We can also look at performance versus baseline to see who shows the largest increase in performance compared to their typical scores:
Cameron Champ
Garrick Higgo
J.T. Poston
Lucas Glover
Stephan Jaeger
Callum Tarren
Emiliano Grillo
Matt Wallace
David Lipsky
Chesson Hadley
Taylor Pendrith
Chez Reavie
Michael Kim
Aaron Baddeley
Zecheng Dou
Overlap List: names that show up on both lists include J.T. Poston, Stephan Jaeger, Emiliano Grillo, Taylor Pendrith, Lucas Glover, and Cameron Champ.
Based on the overlap names, it seems there is something about Midwest course setups that suits ball-striking more than putting. Poston ranks 58th in strokes gained putting but the other five all rank 90th or worse with the flat stick.
Get Greedy with Grillo
The Argentine has struggled with the putter at times over the course of his career but he found his groove in the spring and hasn’t looked back. He’s posted positive putting numbers in 10 of his last 12 events. This hot streak with the putter may not last forever but we can hop along for the ride until he cools off. He’s also twirled a T-3 and T-2 at TPC Twin Cities to go along with one missed cut at the event.
Glover gearing up for a win
The Clemson Tiger really struggled to start the season but made a putter change at the Memorial and has found some confidence with top 20s in four of six events played since the switch. That includes three straight finishes of T-6 or better in the lead-up to the 3M Open. Glover has missed the cut in his last two tries at the 3M Open but did flash his upside with a top 10 in his 2019 course debut. Glover enters the week just 107th in the FedExCup race, needing to jump at least 37 spots over the next two weeks if he wants to play his way into the Playoffs.
