Thomas blitzes BMW at Medinah; wins by 3

By
Mo Yoshimoto,

By
Mo Yoshimoto

Published August 19, 2019 09:55 AM

BMW Championship

Medinah Country Club

Medinah, Illinois

Forty-five (45) down, one to go.

We’re off to the season-ending (revamped) TOUR Championship in Atlanta, the inaugural edition featuring a staggered leaderboard. More on that later, including the absence of two-time FedExCup champion Tiger Woods, who would’ve been defending, had he qualified.

But first. Justin Thomas.

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The 26-year-old, a pre-tourney 14/1 outright, is back to his winning ways after making mincemeat of the vaunted No. 3 Course at Medinah, taking down his 10^th PGA TOUR title in 136 events (132 pro) and sixth in no-cut events, second straight.

His week began with an indifferent range session on Thursday.

“I probably would say that I had the worst warmup I’ve ever had in my life this morning.”

Approximately five hours later, he signed for a course-record-tying 65 to share the 18-hole lead.

The Kentucky native saved his biggest splash however, for a weather-delayed Moving Day, where be began four back of leader Hideki Matsuyama – the new course-record holder after a Friday 63 – and promptly raised the bar with a ridiculous 11-under 61 (8.667 Strokes Gained: Total) to amass a 6-shot lead heading into the finale.

Playing out of the final threesome on Sunday, he battled to a 4-under-par 35-33=68 for a 3-shot win over runner-up and playing competitor Patrick Cantlay (65), improving to 7-for-10 from the three-quarter pole – another ridiculously good stat.

This was the 113^th (overall) edition of the BMW, 13^th in the FEC era, and the Alabama product’ 25-under 263 is a new tournament scoring record (to par), eclipsing Marc Leishman‘s 23-under total at Conway Farms in 2017, and Dustin Johnson at Crooked Stick in 2016.

Perhaps even more compelling, he’s now 4-for-6 as an 18-hole leader/co-leader, which is almost unheard of. Fast-starters are a dime-a-dozen, but it’s rare for them to take it across the finish line. By example, Thomas is just the seventh first-round leader/co-leader this season in 45 events to go on to win (15.5%), but his conversion percentage is now 66.6 by comparison.

The South Florida resident has a reputation for taking it low but can also slug it out with the best of them. His first four wins: 26, 23, 22 and 27-under, respectively, (throw-in a -25 now), but also bagged the 2017 PGA Championship (in his 10^th major start) and the 2018 Honda Classic at PGA National with 8-under winning totals.

Lest we forget, Thomas also holds the TOUR’s all-time 72-hole aggregate scoring record of 253 (-27) from his wire-to-wire, 7-shot win at the 2017 Sony Open, where he kicked off with a course-record, 11-under 59.

Speaking of the Honda, his season got off to a quick start, posting five top 10s in his first seven starts, including a 1-shot loss to J.B. Holmes at the Genesis – after leading by four after 54 holes – but then incurred a wrist injury at the Honda two weeks later.

Thomas, attempting a recovery shot at the par-4 10^th in Round 1, impacted a tree on his follow through, and after beginning 4-under through nine holes, played his next 27 in 6-over, eventually finishing T30 as defending champion.

He continued to play with the injury, posting top 35s in his next three starts, including a T12 at the Masters, but shut it down for six weeks, missing the PGA, difficult for sure as a past winner and considering his family’s connection to the PGA of America.

Thomas returned to miss two of his next four cuts, but, checked in this week off four straight top 12s worldwide, including back-to-back T12s at the WGC-FedEx St. Jude (as defender from Firestone CC), and at last week’s post-season opener at THE NORTHERN TRUST.

He was the perfect example of converging trends with T12s in his last two starts, and T12 in this event last season (Aronimink).

Thomas has attained prolific-winner status.

His 10 victories, including a major before age 27, joins some pretty heady company – Jack Nicklaus, Tiger Woods, Rory McIlroy and Jordan Spieth to name a few – and with the win, heads to East Lake as the No. 1 seed, where he finished runner-up in 2017 (as a 36-hole co-leader) en route to the FEC crown.

Included in those 10 “W’s” are a major, a WGC, and now two FEC Playoffs events (2017 Dell Technologies).

Final Leaderboard (pre-tourney odds outright):

1- (-25, 263) Justin Thomas (14/1)

2- (-22, 266) Patrick Cantlay (20/1)

3- (-20, 268) Hideki Matsuyama (50/1)

4- (-18, 270) Tony Finau (40/1)

5- (-16, 272) Jon Rahm (10/1)

5- (-16, 272) Brandt Snedeker (50/1)

Note: Repeat top-10 finishers in the event: Finau (4-8-7)

Thomas’ Position by Round:

R1: T1

R2: 4^th (2 back)

R3: 1 (by 6)

Thomas on Sunday:

After kicking off with 65-69 and season-low 61, he began with a six-shot lead over playing competitors Cantlay and Finau.

The World No. 10 hit eight (of 14) fairways and 13 greens in regulation, gaining 1.452 strokes approaching and 1.481 tee-to-green.

He squared two bogeys at holes 1 and 10, outflanked by six circles at 5, 7, 11, 13, 15 and 18, two from between 11 and 15 feet, and also saved par at 12 from 14’1” (fist pump).

Thomas posted 1.615 putts per GIR and 0.939 SG: Putting with 28 total putts, wrapping the week with two eagles and a field-high 27 birdies versus six bogeys.

OUT: 1-under 35 (2 birdies, 1 bogey); Thomas leads by four (over Cantlay).

IN: 3-under 33 (4 birdies, 1 bogey); Thomas WINS by three (over Cantlay).

After an up-and-down start, even-par thru 10, he played his final eight in blemish-free 4-under.

Cantlay (66-67-68-65) closed with the second-best round of the day (9 birdies, 2 bogeys) for his third runner-up in 84 events and eighth overall top-3 finish. It’s his second runner-up of the season in 20 starts (2^nd at Shriners as defender), and his fifth top 3.

Matsuyama, who dropped to 1-for-3 when leading/co-leading after 36 holes, hung up a day-low 63 (10 birdies, 1 bogey) for his 15^th top-3 finish in 149 events, second this season in 23 starts (T3, Farmers). He posted laps of 69-63-73-63.

How Thomas Won the Tournament:

Ranked 1^st (or T1) in: Total Birdies; Birdie or Better Percentage; Putts per GIR; Total Putts; All-Around

Ranked 2^nd (or T2) in: Total Eagles; Par-4 Scoring; Par-5 Scoring; SG: Approach; SG: Tee-to-Green

Note: See “Strokes Gained Leaders Stats” at the bottom, along with his full stats.

Least Important Stat(s): Driving Accuracy (ranked T41)

Thomas at the BMW:

Starts: 5

Top 25s: 3

Top 10s: 1

Wins: 1

Form: 1-12-47-32-13

Thomas in the FEC Playoffs:

Starts: 17

Top 10s: 8 (47.0%)

Wins: 2 (11.7%)

Form (last two seasons): 1-12-7-12-24-8

Thomas’ TOUR Career:

Starts: 136

Cuts Made: 108 (79.4%)

Top 25s: 73 (53.6%)

Top 10s: 43 (31.6%)

Top 3s: 19 (13.9%)

Wins: 10 (7.3%)

Thomas’ Season:

Starts: 19

Cuts Made: 17

Top 25s: 13

Top 10s: 6

Top 5s: 5

Wins: 1

Season Form (since wrist injury): 1-12-12-11-36-MC-20-MC-12-24-35-30

By the Numbers:

356: World No. 1 Brooks Koepka finished with 67 for a back-door T24. He had been the FEC points-leader for four weeks in a row, but ended up No. 3, 356 points behind Thomas.

318: World No. 9 Cantlay takes over the No. 2 spot (up 4), 318 points back. He led last week’s NORTHERN TRUST in par breakers with 24 (24 birdies), and was 2^nd in birdies this week with 26.

-10: Of course, all of this points-stuff is now out the window, as we embark on the staggered leaderboard for this coming week’s Playoffs finale. Thomas will BEGIN the tourney on -10, with Cantlay at -8 and Koepka, the season-leader in victories with three, somehow relegated to a start on -7.

1/8: Thomas’ revised outright betting entering R4.

8: Thomas records his eighth top 10 in 17 Playoffs events.

1: Of his 10 wins, Thomas has won in back-to-back starts one time, taking the 2017 SBS TOC and the 2017 Sony.

24: This is Thomas’ first win since the 2018 WGC-Bridgestone 24 starts ago, also as a 54-hole leader (by 3).

43: Thomas’ first win came in his 43^rd career event. Starts between wins since: 23, 10, 4, 3, 1, 15, 0, 1, 27.

10: In Thomas’ last three starts on the lead-in, he’d been between T10 and T19 on the leaderboard after 10 straight rounds, resulting in a run of T11 (The Open), T12 (WGC), and T12 (The NT).

12: In Thomas’ last 16 rounds this season, he’s recorded 12 in the red, including five straight.

5: Thomas connected four sub-par rounds for a fifth time this season (in 19 starts) for his six top 10 and fifth top 5.

4^th: Finau’s solo 4^th was his fifth top 10 of the season in 24 starts, all doubling as top 5s. He’s still stuck on the one win (2016 Puerto Rico) in 143 career events.

6: Rahm’s T5 is his sixth top 10 in 10 Playoffs events, second straight, and his fifth top 5.

12: Rahm bags a career-high 12^th top 10 of the season in 19 starts, third straight and fourth in his last five.

40: Snedeker, the 2012 FEC champ, records his 10^th top 10 in the Playoffs, and first top 5 since winning the 2012 TOUR Championship 18 post-season starts ago. It’s his sixth top 10 of the season in 26 starts, second straight, five of those top 5s. The 38-year-old played his final 40 holes bogey-free.

T11: PGA TOUR rookie Sungjae Im was top rookie (of five) with T11, and is the only rookie (of 26 total) to qualify for the Playoffs finale at 24^th in the FEC standings (up 2). It’s his 15^th top 25 of the season in an iron-man 34 starts. The 21-year-old closed with bogey-free 67.

T7: Second-year man Corey Conners was top debutant and the only top-10 finisher of 14 first-timers with T7 (69-66-69-69). He bumps four spots to 23^rd in the FEC standings.

7: Tiger Woods won seven of his 81 TOUR titles in the Chicago area, including two majors at Medinah. He also won five BMW’s, and was/is the all-time earnings leader in the event. He needed a T6 to advance but finished T37 (71-71-67-72), dropping four places to 42^nd in the FEC standings. Woods conjured just 12 starts this season out of a possible 46, and after winning last season’s TOUR Championship, will now miss it for the fourth time in the last five seasons.

30: Entering No. 30 in the FEC standings, bubble boy Andrew Putnam finished T43 (71-69-73-69) and is eliminated at 34^th in the standings.

31: Kevin Tway finished T11 (69-67-70-69) to jump nine spots in the FEC standings, but is the first man out at 31^st, 13 points shy of advancing.

30: The last man in is Jason Kokrak, who bumped two places to 30^th after a T19 as a first-round co-leader (65-73-70-69), including a clutch, 6’7” birdie-3 at 9 (his final hole) in R4 for bogey-free 69. Playing his eighth season on TOUR, this is his first trip to East Lake.

2: Through 44 non-team events this season, the pre-tourney fave/co-fave has won two times: Rory McIlroy (12/1 co-fave) at THE PLAYERS, and Collin Morikawa at the Barracuda (10/1).

T19: 2016 FEC champ McIlroy, a pre-tourney 8/1 co-fave outright (with Koepka), finished T19 (69-67-70-71), 14 adrift.

82: Making his 23^rd start of the season, Matsuyama opened with 69 and (a-then) course-record, season-low 63 to lead by one at halftime. It was his first lead/co-lead of the season after any round (in 82 rounds played), and his first since T1 after 18 holes of the 2018 Memorial 31 starts ago.